The president entered 2005 with the lowest approval ratings of any president starting his second term since the dawn of modern polling. The inauguration certainly didn’t give Bush a boost, which meant the State of the Union address was a chance for the White House to finally improve the president’s standing with the public.
The public’s confidence in President Bush’s job performance and the nation’s direction has slipped in the opening weeks of his second term, particularly among people 50 and older, according to an Associated Press poll.
Adults were evenly divided on Bush’s job performance in January, but now 54 percent disapprove and 45 percent approve. The number who think the country is headed down the wrong track increased from 51 percent to 58 percent in the past month.
Some of you might be wondering how this data could be so different from a Gallup poll released this week showing Bush’s approval ratings surging to 57%. The explanation is pretty simple — Gallup’s sample was skewed.
The poll trumpeted far and wide yesterday by CNN, USAT, and the right wing blogosphere was based on a sample constructed by Gallup that contained 37% Republicans, 35% Independents, and only 28% Democrats.
Of course, the numbers will continue to have political consequences.
Only four in 10 said they approved of Bush’s handling of domestic policy; a majority disapprove of his handling of the economy, and only 42% said they approved of the president’s handling of Iraq, even after the Jan. 30 elections.
This emboldens Dems, who are already showing surprising unity in opposition to the White House’s agenda. Dems are no longer afraid of Bush’s popularity and Republicans can no longer count on a president with high approval ratings to offer political cover.
Best of all, these poll results come before the public started hearing about the ridiculous budget cuts Bush wants to make to popular policy such as education, the environment, firefighters, job training, local police, and veterans’ benefits.
The White House just won’t be able to strong-arm lawmakers — on Social Security, the budget, taxes, etc. — who see the president’s popular plummeting. Politicians are sensitive to these shifts in public opinion and will have no incentive for going along with a risky agenda that lacks support.
At this rate, Bush might need another war to help Republican get through the 2006 cycle.