After inexplicably keeping the numbers classified, the Pentagon released a report yesterday on the security conditions in Iraq, which included the number of attacks against American and Iraqi targets. Unfortunately, the results were in line with expectations — the Pentagon’s assessment showed violence reaching their highest post-invasion level, with an average of almost 960 attacks against Americans and Iraqis every week, a 22% increase from the level for early May to early August.
But as Eason Jordan explained, as bad as these results sound, the reality is even worse.
While saying the violence in Iraq is at an all-time high, the Pentagon’s new quarterly Iraq report to Congress provides only a partial tally of attacks in that country — a precedent set by the Pentagon’s five previous quarterly Iraq reports to Congress.
The U.S. military’s routine underreporting of attacks continues despite the Iraq Study Group’s recommendation that the U.S. military halt its practice of providing incomplete tallies.
The Iraq Study Group in its report called on U.S. military and intelligence chiefs to “institute immediate changes in the collection of data about violence and the sources of violence to provide a more accurate picture of events on the ground.”
But the Pentagon’s “Measuring Stability and Security in Iraq” report released today showed the partial tally practice continues, presenting a skewed assessment of the violence.
The Pentagon’s report defines “attack” as “specific incidents reported in the Multi-National Corps-Iraq (MNC-I) Significant Activities Database.” It includes “known attacks on Coalition forces, the ISF, the civilian population, and the infrastructure. Attacks typically consist of improvised explosive devides (IEDs), small arms fire, and indirect fire weapons.” So, there were, on average, 959 of these over the last quarter. And because the same report said 68% of all attacks targeted “coalition forces,” it means there were about 650 attacks per week on Americans.
Except, that’s not quite right.
As the ISG report explained, not only are many attacks omitted in Multi-National Forces-Iraq Significant Activities Database, but the overall totals exclude incidents of sectarian violence — which, as you may have heard, is rather common right now.
As Justin Rood put it, “As the country falls into civil chaos, attacks by Iraqis against other non-military, non-official Iraqis are probably the fastest-growing type of violence in the country. Yet in the Pentagon’s newest report on the state of Iraq, that violence does not exist.”
The ISG report was particularly elucidating in this respect. “A murder of an Iraqi is not necessarily counted as an attack,” the report explained.” If we cannot determine the source of a sectarian attack, that assault does not make it into the database. A roadside bomb or a rocket or mortar attack that doesn’t hurt U.S. personnel doesn’t count. For example, on one day in July 2006 there were 93 attacks or significant acts of violence [officially] reported. Yet a careful review of the reports for that single day brought to light 1,100 acts of violence.”
And it’s with this count that yesterday’s discouraging report was released.
The Iraq Study Group did recommend an alternative approach.
Recommendation 77: The Director of National Intelligence and the Secretary of Defense should devote significantly greater analytic resources to the task of understanding the threats and sources of violence in Iraq.
Recommendation 78: The Director of National Intelligence and the Secretary of Defense should also institute immediate changes in the collection of data about violence and the sources of violence in Iraq to provide a more accurate picture of events on the ground.
So far, the standards of measurement remain the same. As a result, as bad as the news seems, the reality is even worse.