So, what’s next?

April 23, 2008

After waiting for the Pennsylvania primary for six weeks — it seemed like longer, didn’t it? — it seems a little awkward, 12 hours after learning the results of the contest, to say, “Pennsylvania, schmensylvania; what’s next?”

Barring intervention by uncommitted superdelegates, here’s what we have to look forward to:

Saturday, May 3: Guam

Tuesday, May 6: Indiana, North Carolina

Tuesday, May 13: West Virginia

Tuesday, May 20: Kentucky, Oregon

Sunday, June 1: Puerto Rico

Tuesday, June 3: Montana, South Dakota

(Other than Guam, all of the remaining contests are primaries, not caucuses.)

Based on the available evidence, several of these contests will have a clear favorite. Hillary Clinton is leading in West Virginia and Kentucky; Obama is ahead in North Carolina and Oregon.

Indiana, though, is poised to be the next big one.

The Indiana primary, on the same day, poses another make-or-break moment for Mrs. Clinton, according to several of her advisers, who said they would urge her to quit the race if she lost that state. Mrs. Clinton, Mr. Clinton and their allies have campaigned frequently in Indiana in recent weeks, and she has some important endorsements, including support from Senator Evan Bayh, the state’s former governor.

“She has to win Pennsylvania and Indiana — pretty much everyone in the campaign agrees on that,” said one senior Clinton adviser, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the campaign’s electoral expectations.

For a must-win state, Clinton is hardly a lock. Whereas she was always considered the likely winner in Pennsylvania, with two weeks until the Indiana primary, there are some polls showing Obama looking fairly strong in the state.

Expect to see a flood of Obama advertising. Indiana will quickly become the latest, and probably last, state to offer Obama a chance to “close the deal.”

April 23, 2008 at 10:50 am

My own calculations:

x + y = 408 (remaining pledged dels)
x – y = 159 (projected worst pledged del Obama lead after Pennsylvania settles)

Solving for x and y, y = (408 – 159) / 2 = 124.5, x = 283.5

So in the remaining contests, Clinton has to win remaining contests by 284 to 124

Hunter, writing on Kos, nicely sums up what I’m feeling right now;

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/4/23/54624/9063

… which is roughly 70% of remaining pledged delegates.

If the superdelegates don’t help Barak he can always hope for the help of the Abercombie Boys 🙂 http://gawker.com/5006621/barack-obamas-abercrombie-boys

“Indiana will quickly become the latest, and probably last, state to offer Obama a chance to ‘close the deal.’”

“Turn out the lights” is absolutely correct. This stuff about Obama not having “closed the deal” is nonsense. He closed the deal in Wisconsin. Any other candidate in Hillary’s position would have been ignored by the media after that, but the Clinton freak-show is too good for ratings to pass up.

As he (or she) said…Obama is our nominee.

North Carolina is the last Big State up for grabs with about 116 pledged delegates.

And according to Bill, it is a must win state for Hillary. Bill Clinton says North Carolina is Do or Die

I do wonder, though – how many people in Clinton’s camp have done the math and just said “uh – this isn’t gonna happen”?

Please dear God, let someone somewhere in the Hillary campaign do the math and bow out gracefully.

Oh, and while you’re at it, dear Lord, please shut up all the “talking heads” who babble on and on about how Obama doesn’t “connect” with the mainstream Americans. If he doesn’t, then where are all the small donations coming from? You don’t have to strike the “heads” dead, but maybe render them mute for the next few months or so.

Thanks.

I wonder, given the demographics, how 70% of the remaining delegates translates into vote margins. PA likely delivered around 3 percentage points fewer delegates than her margin of victory.

Look who’s important now, huh? Just a little protectorate, doesn’t even get a star on the flag… well look who’s going to send this one to convention, bitches!

Start ponying up the SPAM subsidies.

Actually all Clinton has to do is “convince” a majority of delegates to vote for her at the convention. The rest rests on a level of trust in the process that I just don’t have.

Ohioan,

Clinton needs 70% to get the race to a tie?

Sigh. How is this still going on.

My predictions for the remaining contests:

Saturday, May 3: Guam –no clue…anyone from Guam care to post an opinion?
Tuesday, May 6: Indiana –Obama +3-6%, North Carolina –Obama +12%
Tuesday, May 13: West Virginia –Clinton +15-17%
Tuesday, May 20: Kentucky –Clinton +15-17%, Oregon –Obama +10-12%
Sunday, June 1: Puerto Rico –Clinton +5-9%
Tuesday, June 3: Montana –no clue, South Dakota –Obama +8-10%

Net result? Obama will be ahead of Clinton in delegates (the only metric that truly matters) by roughly the same margin as today. Or to put it another way, about 1930-ish delegates will be in Obama’s camp when these contests are conluded. My conclusion: Obama is the nominee.

Indiana is also an open primary
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P08/IN-D.phtml

While Obama’s indie and republican support seemed to have diminished in TX and OH, and Clinton’s increased, they will probably still be a big source of strength for him here.

independent thinker: Pretty good predictions, but I think Clinton will take Kentucky by at least 20 points and Obama will receive closer to a 20-point victory in Oregon. He will win Montana by roughly the same margins as he did Idaho and Wyoming.

Hillary has known since just after Super Tuesday that she was in trouble.

After Obama ran 11 contests in a row, Hillary was down by ~150 elected delegates. The Clinton campaign told the world that their path to Victory was to win TX and OH convincingly and by PA erase the 150 elected delegate lead.

Well after PA, Obama is still up by at least 150 elected delegates. The Clinton campaign has known it could not catch up for a long time now.

He Victory Plan is and has been to get to convention and win in the smoke filled room.

As Clinton is pointing out today, none of the previous delegates are actually pledged so they can choose to support whoever they want. I’m not sure it is to her benefit to point out how little she respects the will of the voters, but then I despise her already after the campaign she has run so I am no longer objective on the subject.

Indipendant Thinker, Obama opened an office in Guam at least a week ago, maybe longer. Clinton doesn’t have the money to do that.

And please people let’s be honest. If any other candidate had the February Clinton had, losing 11 in a row they would have been forced out by the party and by money and by all the next voters. Clinton has only come this far on name recognition, on her husband’s presidency and on the fact that she’s a woman. Any other candidate would have bowed out graciously before March 1.

Barack would have been forced to concede had he had her February. We would have said ” see ya later kid, you had a nice go, you’re a good candidate, we’ll see you in 8 years. So long.” And that is the truth. And you Hillary supporters no it. Everything else is just BS.

Despite the simple arithmetic, despite the probabilities, Hillary Clinton is determined to keep the process going until the convention where she expects back-room shenanigans will allow her to steal the nomination. This nasty, frumpy little person’s ego demands it, her sense of entitlement demands it, the vested interests that support her demand it. The rest of us? — “screw ’em.”

Go Indiana !!!

Hillary will lose to McCain by huge margins because of her damage to the Democratic Party. She’s running with the strategy that if she wins she’ll get all the Dem support “just because”… Can’t wait to see the look on her face when she carries only one or two states. And her and Bill’s “legacy” will be marred forever.

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