Some win, some lose when we play the expectations game
More Q1 info from the presidential candidates. To review, we learned yesterday that Edwards was leading the pack with $7.4 million and Kerry was right behind him with $7 million.
Since then, we’ve heard from a couple more. Lieberman took in about $3 million, Dean reported $2.6 million, and the other folks were so embarrassed by their totals that they’re hoping to sneak the number out on a busy news day so no one will notice.
Unfortunately, no candidate gets considered based on his or her actual success, only their achievements weighed against expectations. Is this fair? No, but that’s the way the process works at this point. Even ABC News’ The Note said today that it would make a conscious effort “not [to] judge every development by the standards of the expectations game, but, rather, treat the candidates equally.” Easier said than done, I’m afraid.
With the expectations game in mind, here’s my rundown of how I think the candidates fared in light of the newly released Q1 reports (borrowing a method of measurement from Newsweek’s Conventional Wisdom column):
Edwards — Up Arrow
Coming off an unproductive winter, Edwards was faltering. His polling in New Hampshire and Iowa are weak and a majority of folks in his own home state don’t want him to run for president. All the while, Edwards was quietly raising big money, enough to make him Q1’s big winner. As Democratic strategist David Eichenbaum said, “For those who weren’t sure whether to take him all that seriously, I think it will cause them to take another look.” Even more impressive was that he took in this much during a war, when potential donors were likely to be distracted. If Q2 is this strong, Kerry will justifiably begin to panic.
Kerry — Mixed
He’s supposed to be the front-runner, but Edwards beat him by $400,000. What’s wrong with raising $7 million? Nothing, but coming in second to a rival you were supposed to beat easily brings you down a notch. As Democratic consultant David Axelrod said, some of Kerry’s frontrunner “mystique” has suffered.
Lieberman — Down Arrow
Carpetbagger’s least favorite Democratic candidate raised $3 million but lost the expectations game. Lieberman, after all, got 50 million people to vote for him to be the Vice President just two years ago. Many think he should be the frontrunner, not failing to raise half of what Edwards and Kerry got. Though it pains me to be fair to a candidate I dislike so much, Lieberman does have a pretty good excuse for a lower total. He got in the race pretty late and did raise $2.1 million in March alone. I suspect Q2 will be better for Lieberman. If not, he’s a goner.
Dean — Up Arrow
Dean played the expectations game better than I had expected. He was allegedly working like mad to raise $1.5 million, but as only he and Steve Grossman (his top fundraising guy) knew, they were raising almost twice that much, coming in at $2.6 million. Reality: Dean’s totals put him fourth among the four candidates who’ve disclosed. Perception: Wow, the guy from Vermont did way better that we thought. Everyone isn’t exactly convinced, however. One Dem strategist told the Washington Post, “Dean doesn’t get extra points [merely] because he said he was going to raise $1.5 million and got $2.6 million. He’s still behind…. You can’t buy ads with ‘beating expectations.'”
Gephardt — Down Arrow
Some polls actually show Dick Gephardt leading the entire field in national polls. Fearless prediction — that won’t last. Gephardt didn’t even want to release his Q1 numbers at all, which really isn’t a good sign. I saw one report that quoted anonymous party “insiders” who said Gephardt raised “between $2.5 million and $4.5 million.” Yeah, that’s helpful.
Everyone else — Mixed
Some of these candidates probably didn’t raise much of anything. Kucinich, Braun, and Sharpton have to realize their campaigns are not going anywhere. I suspect at least one of these three will be gone before the New Hampshire primary. Bob Graham, a sentimental favorite of mine, probably also fared poorly in Q1, but he was spending most of the months recovering from major heart surgery, so he gets a temporary “get out of the expectations game” free card. There’s a lot of campaign money in Florida and Graham is likely to get a whole lot of it in Q2.