One need not look too hard to find a “moderate” pundit projecting his or her own desire for a third-party presidential campaign onto the public. This became especially fashionable a couple of weeks ago, when NYC Mayor Michael Bloomberg and a bipartisan group of allies chatted in Oklahoma about some kind of independent bid. (Unity08 effectively closed its doors to concentrate on its Bloomberg-backing efforts.)
The David Broders of the world argue that most Americans, reasonable and in the center, are fed up with Democrats and Republicans, and are clamoring for someone new to step up and challenge the two parties. It sounds nice, but it’s not true. A new Gallup poll offers some interesting data:
[R]ecent Gallup polling has assessed some of the public’s attitudes that could be related to the ultimate success of an independent or third-party candidate running against the two major-party candidates this year. The data show that Americans are quite positive about the candidates running for president so far, and believe they have suggested good solutions to the nation’s problems, marking a sharp contrast with what these same measures showed in early 1992. Thus, while dissatisfaction in general is high, the American public does not appear to believe it is important or necessary for an independent candidate outside of the traditional two major parties to step into the race in order to save the nation.
Gallup asked, for example, “Is there any candidate running this year that you think would make a good president, or not?” At this point in the 1992 campaign, only 40% saw a good president among the candidates. In 1996, it was 57%. In March 2000, the number was 71%. Now, it’s 84%.
That’s pretty one-sided. In fact, 84% of Americans don’t agree on much, but they’re looking at the fields of presidential candidates and seem pretty satisfied.
Gallup also asked, “Are the presidential candidates talking about issues you really care about, or not?” Not only did 72% of Americans say “yes,” the numbers, 11 months before the campaign, are already “almost as high as it has been in October of previous election years — a time when positive responses to these types of questions usually rise.”
Finally, Gallup asked, “Do you feel that any of the presidential candidates have come up with good ideas for solving the country’s problems, or not?” 58% said the candidates have, and while that may sound low compared to the responses to the other questions, the pollster noted the majority is “one of the highest Gallup has ever measured at any point during an election year.”
Gallup’s Frank Newport concluded:
When Perot jumped into the campaign in the spring of 1992, he moved to the top of the national horse-race polls, pulling in more potential voters than either President Bush or Clinton. Perot later left the race and then re-entered it, creating a highly unusual set of campaign dynamics, but ended up gaining 19% of the 1992 popular presidential vote.
The data reviewed above suggest that the environment would not be nearly as propitious this year as it was for Perot that year. It is true that Americans are broadly dissatisfied this year with both the state of the nation and the economy, as they were in 1992. But Americans at this juncture seem much more willing to say that the current crop of candidates running in the major parties have discussed good solutions to the nation’s problems and, as a result, there is a high level of satisfaction with those currently running.
Sorry, David Broder and the Unity08 gang; Americans generally don’t seem to be where you want them to be.