The AP is reporting that a “close friend” of Florida Sen. Bob Graham (D) said that the Senator has decided not to seek re-election next year.
The source said there were other things Graham wants to do besides elected office, but added that Graham will try to help keep the seat in Democratic hands. The source also said the official announcement could come as soon as today.
Let’s assume for a moment, just for the sake of conversation, that this report is accurate and that Graham will be retiring from politics. First, it means the end of a tremendous career of public service for an honest, intelligent, and dedicated lawmaker. Graham may not have won the presidency, or gotten very far in his quest for the Dem nomination, but that does not tarnish an impressive career in politics.
The second point that will be on the minds of many is figuring out what happens in the race for Graham’s seat. As the AP noted, Graham’s decision “further complicates hopes by the Democrats to regain control of the Senate,” especially since he’ll be the fourth southern Dem Senator to retire this year, joining John Edwards (N.C.), Fritz Hollings (S.C.), and Zell Miller (Ga.).
I agree that it “complicates” those efforts, but I certainly don’t believe all hope is lost for Dems keeping this seat. Not by a long shot.
To be sure, Graham is a legend in Florida. Had he decided to seek a fourth term, he almost certainly would have been successful.
That being said, there are five pretty good Dems who have begun campaigning for Graham’s seat in anticipation of this announcement — U.S. Reps. Allen Boyd, Peter Deutsch and Alcee Hastings, Miami-Dade Mayor Alex Penelas and former state Education Commissioner Betty Castor. Any of these five could win a statewide race, though Deutsch and Penelas are my favorites (despite the fact that they vehemently hate each other).
The field of Republicans, at least at this point, is unimpressive, featuring members of the state legislature such as Johnnie Byrd and Dan Webster, and bizarre legal activist Larry Klayman. The GOP’s best hope may be former U.S. Rep. Bill McCollum, one of the House “managers” who fought for Clinton’s impeachment in 1999, but let’s not forget that McCollum lost his first Senate run in 2000 by a fairly large margin.
The White House begged HUD Secretary Mel Martinez to run for the seat, and he would have been the odds-on favorite, but he declined, hinting that he’s more likely to run for governor in 2006.
Yes, Graham’s departure will make this race competitive and the national party will have to invest more than they had planned into this campaign. Yet, without a strong GOP figure in the race, I definitely like the Dems’ chances of keeping this seat.