I keep trying to figure out how the fight over Arlen Specter and the Judiciary Committee is going to end up. The conventional wisdom is that Specter has enough support among his colleagues to hold on, but I don’t think this has been wrapped up quite yet.
Roll Call reported yesterday that Specter’s rise “appears secure.” The American Prospect noted, persuasively, that if Specter were really in trouble, a colleague would be positioning himself as a viable alternative for the chairmanship. But the religious right, which has already helped generate thousands of angry Specter-related phone calls to Capitol Hill, refuses to let up on this. As long as they’re keeping the pressure on, the outcome resolution of the controversy remains in doubt.
Just over the last two days, the Family Research Council has reiterated its staunch opposition to Specter’s chairmanship, saying the Pennsylvania moderate has “disqualified” himself. Indeed, the FRC, instead of letting up on the pressure, has launched an alert to its members headlined, “Let the battle begin.”
Likewise, Concerned Women for America issued a release saying Specter “‘Borked’ himself from the Senate Judiciary Committee.” James Dobson, head of Focus on the Family, called Specter a “big-time problem” who “must be derailed.” The Christian Defense Coalition is frustrated with Senate GOP leaders because they are “putting their finger in the air and seeing which way the wind is blowing. This drama still has to be played out.”
The Republicans have a choice — throw their weight behind a pro-choice moderate Republican from a Blue state or listen to their far-right base. If the party backs Specter, it’ll send a signal that the party is willing to buck its far-right wing on rare occasions, as long as it’s immediately after an election, not before one. If the party ditches him, it’ll let the nation know who’s really calling the shots on the Hill.
Given the circumstances, I’m hardly convinced Specter is in the clear.
At this point, the religious right has certain, shall we say, expectations. I think the movement fundamentally misunderstands the election results, but the groups and its leaders are convinced that they won the election for the party and, as such, the GOP “owes them one.” Right now, all of the movement’s collective energy is focused on stopping Specter.
Complicating matters, the religious right has issued marching orders to its supporters, who are responding.
Senate offices said the response was intense. “We are getting slammed,” said Mike Brumas, a spokesman for Senator Jeff Sessions, Republican of Alabama and a panel member. “Some of them are saying things like they voted for values on Tuesday and this is a slap in the face.”
An aide to Senator John Cornyn of Texas, another Republican on the Judiciary Committee, said the office was getting several calls a minute, a volume equal to the calls during consideration of the proposed constitutional amendment to ban same-sex marriage.
So the movement wants Specter’s head; the party wants to smooth this over. I suppose the GOP could try and placate the religious right for a while, but with what? They’ll hold an ineffective vote on a constitutional amendment banning gay marriage sometime this year, but that won’t cut it. First, the movement expects that anyway, so it’s not much of a bribe, and second, the vote will inevitably fall short, so it’s unlikely to make the movement feel better.
It’s a problem when a crazed movement of religious extremists, all of whom abhor compromise, dominate a party’s base, but welcome to George Bush’s America.
Just as an aside, if the GOP does push Specter aside, how will Linc Chafee feel about his decision to stick with his Republican brethren?