State by state, Bush’s support falters

February 17, 2006

SurveyUSA has another one of those interesting 50-state polls out this week, breaking down Bush’s approval rating on a state-by-state basis. For the White House, there isn’t much in the way of good news.

* Bush has dropped below the 50% threshold in 47 states. He’s at 40% or lower in 23 states. He’s at the one-third mark (33%) or lower in six states.

* Of the states that backed Bush in 2004, 13 now show him with an approval rating of 45% or lower. He’s in the 30s in four of these “red” states.

But this poll is interesting for more than just another Bush-is-unpopular observation. It also points to some Senate incumbents who might find the results a little nerve-wracking.

Chuck Todd recently ranked the nation’s most competitive Senate races for National Journal subscribers. The bad news for the GOP is that most of the top contests involve a Republican incumbent struggling to stay in office. Worse news for the GOP is that nearly all of the races are in states where Bush is unlikely to help.

According to Todd, four of the top eight most competitive Senate races feature a Republican incumbent in a state where Bush’s support has faltered. In Pennsylvania, Bush’s approval rating is down to just 36%. In Rhode Island, it’s 25%. In Missouri, Bush won a majority in 2004, but his support now stands at 39%. In Ohio, Bush is down to 37%.

In each of these states, Sens. Santorum, Chafee, Talent, and DeWine know that a visit by the president isn’t likely to boost their chances. For that matter, when voters consider whether to back the candidate that will help counteract the Bush agenda vs. the candidate that votes with the White House most of the time, it’s not a match-up that favors the GOP.

Watch the next couple of months to see just how aggressively candidates like these four back away from Bush. If the polls stay like this, they’ll go into reverse so quickly, they’ll leave skid marks.

The only consolation in my state, Idaho, is that
the 55% approval rate ties for the lowest in
the trend line.

Incidentally, this week the Idaho state legislature
voted for a constitutional amendment to ban
gay marriages. It goes to the voters in November.
It had been defeated by the legislature in four
prior years. Things just keep getting worse in
this country, don’t they?

I can’t help but notice the irony: roughly a century
ago, women got their civil rights. A half century
ago the blacks. Now it’s the gays turn, and under
this right wing regime they’re being completely
shut out.

What’s so frustrating, and alarming, is that the
right is getting stronger, not weaker, and this
after a series of scandals any one of which
would have destroyed a previous administration.

Apologies – a little off topic.

  • hark,

    Off topic or not, this cause is losing across the nation because the Democrats won’t forcefully adopt it (nor will they do anything else forcefully). Without an OPPOSITION the Republicans can pick whatever they want out of their toilet and make the nation eat it.

    If there were a significant OPPOSITION, there’d be things to trade for gay rights legislation. Unfortunately, there isn’t. Democratic incumbents seem content with what they’ve got, just like labor “leaders”.

  • On topic, here’s a nice collection of states (those above 50% pro-Bush):

    Utah, Idaho, Alabama, Wyoming, Nebraska and Oklahoma

    I wonder what the people there think of “Brokeback Mountain” and Willie Nelson’s new release, “Cowboys are Frequently, Secretly Fond of Each Other”. For that matter, I wonder how they regard people of faiths other than theirs.

  • The National Journal notes that Missouri, my home state, is “getting more red, not more blue.” They’re overstating this. Democrats picked up two out of three state legislature seats in special elections in recent special elections. What’s notable is that two were in southern and southwestern Missouri, which is strongly Republican and Roy Blunt country. Dems picked up another seat last fall from a conservative St. Louis suburb. And Talent has won no friends with his recent flip-flop on stem cell research/human cloning. They’re small gains, but it’s encouraging.

  • Republicans may be wondering why their boys are doing so bad in the polls.

    Well let me let you know what the circumstantial evidence is:

    John Kerry goes hunting, but he manages not to shoot his buddies in the face

    BTW– Turns out Cheney is a lot more like Dark Helmet than Darth Vader!!

  • I haven’t read the article that prm mentions, but I think that our Republican governor has done much of the yoeman’s work in converting lower and middle class Republicans into Democrats down here in the southwest part of Missouri. A lot people that I talk to aren’t very happy with the way that Boy Blunt cut the Medicaid program.

  • Utah, Idaho, Alabama, Wyoming, Nebraska and Oklahoma
    (those above 50% pro-Bush)
    The coalition of the unthinking.
    What else do these states have in common?
    fear of gays, abortions, and the grinch

  • Still, Kali – albeit somewhat late – it’s good to remember that even in those states nearly half the people are anti-Bush. “Cowboys are frequently secretly fond of each other”.

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