State Department doesn’t see any dominoes falling

Foreign policy in the 1960s was marked by a doctrine known as the “Domino Theory.” In a nutshell, the idea was that allowing one country to fall to communism, particularly in East Asia, would embolden communists and lead other countries to fall as well. Among others, President Lyndon Johnson embraced this idea and used it to justify American involvement in Vietnam.

Now, there’s talk of a new “Domino Theory,” in which democracies can spread from one country in a region to another. While President Bush didn’t use the concept by name, he did allude to the idea in a recent speech in which he suggested “liberating” Iraq could lead to burgeoning democracies throughout the Middle East.

“A liberated Iraq can show the power of freedom to transform that vital region, by bringing hope and progress into the lives of millions,” Bush said. On a similar note, he added, “The world has a clear interest in the spread of democratic values, because stable and free nations do not breed the ideologies of murder. They encourage the peaceful pursuit of a better life. And there are hopeful signs of a desire for freedom in the Middle East…. A new regime in Iraq would serve as a dramatic and inspiring example of freedom for other nations in the region.”

If successful, democratizing the Middle East would be among the most significant world events in memory, right up there with the fall of communism. For Bush administration hawks, who’ve dreamed of “regime change” in Iraq for years, “Domino Theory” is the foundation for their ambitions.

There’s one small problem. Almost no one thinks this idea will work. As of today, the leading critic is the State Department’s Bureau of Intelligence and Research.

An exclusive report in today’s LA Times unveils a classified State Department report that concludes it is “not credible” to believe regime change in Iraq will advance democratic interests throughout the Middle East.

Worse, the State Department report, which is titled, “Iraq, the Middle East and Change: No Dominoes,” even doubts that a U.S.-fostered democracy in Iraq would thrive in the wake of a war.

In other words, the research arm of the U.S. State Department has essentially concluded that the White House’s plans for post-war Iraq are wrong and won’t work. I have a hunch this won’t make Bush’s sales pitch any easier.