Several polls released after Al Gore’s endorsement last week show Howard Dean getting a significant bump in national support. For the first time since this year, Dean is polling above 20%, well above his closest rivals, who tend to be Clark, Gephardt, and Lieberman in these surveys.
However, as I’ve said many times, national polls are interesting, but they don’t matter most. The nomination process goes state-by-state.
As everyone knows, Iowa and New Hampshire are up first, with Iowa’s caucuses on Jan. 19 and New Hampshire’s primary a week later, on Jan. 27. At this point, polls suggest Dean is likely to win both of these contests.
Attention then turns to the next big day on the campaign schedule — Feb. 3 — when eight states will combine to hold a mini Super Tuesday (Arizona, Delaware, Missouri, New Mexico, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, and Virginia). If Dean is going to cruise to the nomination, he’ll win big on Feb. 3. Likewise, if one of his rivals is going to step up as a strong challenger, it will probably have to happen on this day.
Survey USA published the results of three key statewide polls from states with Feb. 3 primaries — Arizona, Oklahoma, and South Carolina — all of which were conducted after the Gore endorsement. The results are pretty interesting.
Arizona (margin of error +/- 4.9%)
Dean — 31%
Clark — 29%
Lieberman — 10%
Gephardt — 9%
Kerry — 7%
Everyone else at 5% or lower
Oklahoma (margin of error +/- 4.7%)
Clark — 34%
Dean — 21%
Lieberman — 11%
Gephardt — 8%
Edwards — 8%
Everyone else at 5% or lower
South Carolina (margin of error +/- 4.1%)
Dean — 21%
Clark — 20%
Edwards — 15%
Sharpton — 15%
Gephardt — 10%
Everyone else at 5% or lower
These polls are obviously good news for Dean and Clark. In Arizona, the two are essentially tied, while the gap between them and the rest of the field is pretty large. It will be a big win for one or the other.
Oklahoma is looking, at this point, like a state Clark can count on for a Feb. 3 victory. Oklahoma, oddly enough, is the state Lieberman was considering as a fall-back state if he started losing everywhere else. Note to Lieberman: your support in your fall-back state is half of Dean’s and one-third of Clark’s. Maybe it’s time to drop out?
South Carolina, meanwhile, has seen a significant change of late. This was supposed to be a Clark-Edwards show down in a state where Dean was far behind as recently as October. Now Dean and Clark are statistically tied for the lead, while Edwards, who was born in South Carolina, has fallen back. If Dean wins South Carolina, after winning in Iowa and New Hampshire, he’ll understandably boast that his appeal is broad in three key regions — the Midwest, the Northeast, and the Deep South. If Clark wins, he’ll be the one to remind Dems that a nominee with appeal in the South could make the difference between winning and losing in the general election.
If Dean wins in Iowa, it will effectively knock Gephardt out of the race. If Dean wins in New Hampshire and Lieberman finishes fourth or fifth, then Lieberman is gone, too. If Clark wins Oklahoma, South Carolina, and Arizona, he’ll immediately become the major Dean alternative.
Feb. 3 will answer a whole lot of questions and narrow the campaign down in a hurry.