National Journal’s Chuck Todd was running through this year’s winners and losers yesterday and had some harsh things to say about young voters.
Speaking of losers, how ’bout that slacker vote (i.e., the 18-29 year-olds). They turned out in the exact same ratios as 2000, 1996 and 1992. There was no surge, no cell phone pollster blackouts.
A few hours later, a post at Daily Kos said those same young voters turned out in droves and nearly won the election for Kerry.
People under the age of 30 turned out at the highest rate in more than 30 years, and we voted for change. In battlegrounds…turnout was above 60%, and broke for Kerry by an average of almost 20 points.
Florida? Ours. Ohio? Ours. Colorado? Ours. Virginia? Missouri? Arkansas? Ours.
Our generation did its part and then some, and most of us will stick with it.
So, who’s right here? Were young people turning out in record numbers, or was it pretty much more of the same from the age group with the worst level of participation?
Actually, it’s sort of both. There was a surge in younger voters, but since turnout over all went up as well, the percentage of young voters didn’t change over the last four years.
More young voters cast ballots this year than they have in the last two presidential contests as the record turnout reversed the downward trend in youth participation in national elections, according to preliminary analyses and pollsters.
With the help of dozens of get-out-the-vote campaigns, from MTV’s “Rock the Vote” to Artists Coming Together and MoveOn.org, nearly 21 million people between the ages of 18 and 29 voted this year, 4.6 million more than four years ago, the data show. Overall, 51.6 percent of twentysomethings were heard on Election Day, compared to 42.3 percent in 2000.
After a brief review of the exit polls, it appeared that young people had let us down once again. Four years ago, voters between 18 and 29 accounted for only 17% of the popular vote total. This year, it remained at 17%. It wasn’t a good sign.
Nevertheless, there was a surge and these young people did back Kerry in large numbers. This was particularly true in the most important states. In Ohio and Pennsylvania, young voters accounted for 21 percent of the total statewide ballots and 20 percent in Wisconsin and Minnesota. Kerry won all of those states but Ohio.
It took a lot of effort (and the threat of a pending draft), but this age group did respond to the outreach.
“Young voters are back, and politicians will ignore them at their peril,” said Daniel M. Shea, a political science professor who directs Allegheny College’s Center for Political Participation in Meadville, Pa. “I’m convinced that we’ve turned the corner and that young Americans will continue to be important players in the electoral process.”
True? It’s too soon to tell. To say this age group is “back,” is a little misleading. They’ve never been there for a campaign before, so how can they be “back”? I hope the surge is the start of a new level of engagement, but after one campaign, no one knows if this is a real trend or a blip.