Sunday Discussion Group

August 28, 2005

There are, believe it or not, only 28 shopping months before the Iowa presidential caucuses for the 2008 presidential election. It seems like an eternity, but the fight for positioning has already begun.

This week, I’m wondering: who do you suppose the Republicans will nominate?

Will it be one of the many senators eyeing the nomination (McCain, Allen, Santorum, Frist, Brownback, Hagel)? How about one of the ambitious governors (Huckabee, Owens, Romney, Pawlenty, Pataki, Sanford)?

How does Giuliani fit in? Gingrich? Jeb?

Will Cheney reverse course and seek the gig? How about Condi?

Although not the presidential candidate, I think Condi will be a very appealing (and probable) VP candidate for whoever it is. I’m guessing that if the religious right get their way (of course they will), it’ll be Allen.

  • Polls say Giuliani and McCain, but there’s no way primary voters will back someone who isn’t a true believer, 100%. That rules out Hagel too.

    I say Allen or Huckabee.

  • I think it’s going to be Allen. He’s Southern, very conservative, a diehard Bush supporter and a crypto-theocrat, and his inability to speak English clearly is probably an asset. Also, he’s very ambitious, which means his campaign team won’t be afraid to “rat-fuck” (to borrow a term from “All the President’s Men”) all his potential opponents, including Jeb Bush (if he chooses to run). Finally, he’s a former governor, which means he’s probably signed enough tax cuts and death warrants to satisfy the non-fundamentalist portion of the Hard Right.

  • shouldn’t this thread be about the hurricane which is about to wipe new orleans off the map, and how will bush will help a city with a dem rep and mayor, a state with a dem senator who won in fierce fight, and a dem gov? perhaps he’ll send water in exchange for future votes like he did in florida.

  • If it weren’t for his infidelity, Bill Owens, gov of Colorado, would be getting more attention. It has to be a gov because senators never seem to get the nomination.

  • Can you imagine Dick Cheney snarling in an Iowa living room when asked real, tough questions by undecided voters?

    Can you imagine Condi puckering her lips when Iowans demand non-“historical” reasons for ignoring the “Bin Laden Determined to Strike in US” report from the CIA?

    They’ll do worse than John Kerry in the “like to have a beer with” contest. Tho they might be fun in the obligatory “wading in manure on the farm” photos.

  • If the Democrats had even the tiniest faint hint of the merest suggestion of any ability to campaign, I wouldn’t care which of those folks got the nomination. They’d lose because there just aren’t enough people rich and/or mean enough to elect a Republican to anything.

    But since it would take some courage for Democrats to educate nearly all Americans to the fact that we are all being screwed royally by CheneyCorp and BushCo, it ain’t gonna happen.

    Given the void, McCain or Hagel. Senators usually don’t make good presidential candidates, but none of those governors is very exciting. Any Democrat with a videotape file could easily make mincemeat of McCain for all the brown-nosing since Rove’s cruetly toward him in South Carolina, but they won’t. So, again, McCain or Hagel, military men who “will know something to do about Iraq”.

    As to their running afoul of “the base”, especially the “Christians”, I think everyone knows the religious whackos are really a paper tiger. If I had put as much faith in the GOP as they have, and received diddly as my reward, I’d … I’d … well I’d do something else. Like good works, or distributing alms, or clothing the naked, or feeding the hungry, or making peace, or….

  • My money’s on Brownback. He’s got the base locked up, and sounds smart enough on foreign policy to continue the ‘Bush legacy’ in the eyes of red-staters.

    Santorum for VP.

  • If we assume Bush will not suspend the election and make himself leader for life, I think Jeb will find the call too irresistible to resist.

  • According to the DailyKos (link below) the Denver Post has reported that “Bob Woodward said in a recent question and answer session that he suspects Dick Cheney will run for President in 2008. He says it’s “highly likely” that Bush will ask him, and he would accept.”

    My thought at the time was that ,with Bush looking more and more like a lame duck, the administration floated this to strengthen the presidents hand. It apparently didn’t go over too well since I haven’t heard anything more about. However, it may resurface at a latter date, if Republicans in Congress begin to break ranks.

    Bottomline: I view any talk of Cheney running skeptically.

    http://www.dailykos.com/story/2005/8/11/13228/1578

  • Living here in Ohio,my guess is JEBBY. Diebold wouldn`t really have to change anything but first names,the stinking rat bastards !

  • I wonder “why not McCain?” And then I wonder if a number of Republicans look at McCain in the same way so many of the Democrats view Joe Lieberman. RINO vs DINO.

    How the hell did the GOP get so hijacked by its most radical (and idiotic) constituents? Will the religious right ever take its toys and go home?

  • Santorum’s going to lose his re-election bid in 2006, which combined with the “senators make poor Presidential candidates” mantra makes him a poor choice.

    Despite his prediction of a “landslide” victory, Romney will get his clock cleaned if he runs for re-election in 2006; right now he trails “Anybody Else” by 20 points.

    McCain and Hagel have failed the fealty test.

    Video tapes of Giuliani blaming the “troops on the ground” for failing to secure explosive caches in Iraq should torpedo his hopes.

    Huckabee. I think maybe Huckabee. He’s pretty much toed the party line. He seems an amiable sort. The whole weight loss thing will play well with the “Oprah crowd”. He’s even appeared on Bill Maher’s show.

    Barring something unforeseen (which is akin to barring rain in the next 28 months), I gonna predict a Huckabee/Condi ReThug ticket in 2008).

    Of course, I’ve been drinking, so who knows………….

  • Alright, I like you guys, so I’ll just let you in on the big secret: It’s me, Doctor Biobrain. They’ve already picked me to be the next Republican nominee, and I’m going to lose in a tough and dirty race to Hillary. But two days after the election, serious questions of voter fraud will arise in New York and Virginia, and within a month Hillary’s victory will be ruled invalid and she’ll end up serving hardtime, and I’ll be named President, with the Supreme Court’s blessing. But then I’ll be assassinated on Inauguration Day by two CIA assets who infiltrated the Dean campaign in 2004, posing as disinterested Iranians. This will naturally implicate Dean and the entire anti-war movement, as well as Iran. And before the day is out, bombers will be on their way to Tehran, and my running mate will be our 44th president. And who else could it be, but Dick Cheney. The man’s a genius all the way.

    Well that’s everything, but I’d still appreciate it if you looked suprised when it all happens. I don’t want you ruining the effect, or Dick will be pissed.

  • A likely matchup:

    Allen Vs Gore

    Advantage: Gore.

    Each of these candidates has a good chance to snag the nomination because…

    No matter how much Bush’s popularity tanks among the general public, Kool-Aide swiggin’ GOP primary voters will still love him, and will vote for the candidate who most resembles their hero. That candidate is George Allen. Like W in 2000, Allen’s intellectual vacuousness and lack of recognition outside of his home state make him a political blank slate, nationally, which is necessary for Allen to be sold as both a “compassionate conservative” and a fundamentalist crusader.

    Despite the Democratic grassroots’ pronounced lack of enthusiasm for Gore’s 2000 candidacy, rank n’ file Dems have since taken a shine to him. Although he has, as of yet, made no claims to the ‘ 08 nomination, Gore polls very well when his name is included among possible contenders. An ‘ 08 Gore candidacy would provide much needed closure for Dems, who are still understandably angry(much more than Gore, himself) over the stolen 2000 election. This collective thirst for vengeance would give Gore the edge over Hillary Clinton among the hard core party faithful who show up to vote in primaries.

    As for the general election…

    Virginians seem to like Allen, but he comes across as a wet blanket(and a bit of a wanker, to boot) on TV. He possesses many of W’s mental shortcomings, but lack’s The Shrub’s doofus charm. Unlike W, Allen is just verbally competent enough to express an idea almost clearly, which is a handicap for any true conservative who wants to appeal to a national audience, since a good chunk of those who voted Republican in 2000 and 2004 don’t actually agree with republican policies.

    If W is still as unpopular in ’08 as he is now, Gore would defeat Allen handily. To win, Gore would need only to paint Allen as the outgoing president’s surrogate, Bush’s “mini-me,” if you will. This would not be difficult to do, since, in a lot of ways, Allen is basically Bush-Lite: W is moronic, Allen is merely dim. W is unitelligible, Allen is merely inarticulate. W is souless, Allen is merely craven.

    Gore also benefits from the fact that everybody likes a good comeback story. The “Seabiscuit Factor” would likely make Gore the darling of the MSM who so savaged him in 2000. If there’s anything lazy MSM editors, repoters and pundits like more than groupthink, it’s a ready made story arc. Sweet, sweet irony. Then again, Gore might put together a Shrum/Brazille/Cahill “Dream Team”…

  • Please, please, little Jesus, make it Newt Gingrich or, even better, make it this wako from Alabama, Roy Moore. In any case, make it someone who openly stands for what Republicans are really about.

  • God called and left a message on my answering machine (Deux ex Machina). He told me that Pat Robertson and his VP choice Roy Moore will be running wild in ’08. Apparently the theocrats in the GOP are taking an undisclosed medical report of W’s urinary tract infection as a sign from God…y’know “burning Bush” and all.

  • I regret to announce that I will not be running for president in 2008. Damn the 35 years of age clause!

  • It has to be a gov because senators never seem to get the nomination.

    Mild correction: Senators have a fairly strong record of winning their parties nomination. The presidency, OTOH, is where Senators do so poorly.

    For the record, I’ve said it before, but will say it again, Allen is the current GOP favorite. He will not be easy to beat, but is by no means a shoe-in.

    Also, for the record, no matter how well qualified, the GOP will not add a black woman to the ticket as VP candidate. Ain’t gonna happen. Oh, upon reflection, I suppose it’ll be possible, yet still improbable, if the Dems nominate Hillary.

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