Sunday Discussion Group

October 23, 2005

Upon learning that Special counsel Patrick Fitzgerald had set up a website, a lawyer “involved with the case” said, “It sure doesn’t look like he’s folding up his tent and going home without some charges.” Given what little we know, it seems like a fair assessment.

But it’s far too vague. No one outside Fitzgerald’s office knows what’s going to happen, but we’ve all taken some pleasure in guessing. To be sure, the conjecture will continue until some kind of announcement is made, probably this week. This, of course, makes now prediction time.

This week’s discussion group topic: what will happen in this case?

The possible outcomes are numerous. On the one hand, some sources indicate Fitzgerald is looking at as many as 22 people for potential indictment. On the other, Fitzgerald can wrap things up this week, head home, and allow the White House to let out one collective exhale. In between, possibilities abound.

So, here’s your chance to predict the immediate future. More glory will go to those who guess correctly with the most specificity (who gets indicted, on what charges, list of possible unindicted co-conspirators, etc.). Patrick Fitzgerald and members of his staff are ineligible for guessing (but are encouraged to contact me with any crumbs of information they might be willing to share).

What’s obvious is that this was a conspiracy. I expect the more serious indictments to be handed down to those who directed the scheme. Top tier indictments would be Libby and Rove. Ari Fliesher, due to the nature his position, is probably a step behind. I expect most will be handed out to people who are not household names, and played smaller roles – the footsoldiers.

The two big questions are: What was Cheney’s role? Apparantly, the leak was orchestrated by the WHIG, which was set up under Cheney’s office. Will he be indicted, named as an unindicted co-conspitator, or walk away (legally) unscathed? In any event he’ll be damaged goods, and should be pressed to step down. Ignorance of what transpires in his own office is as intolerable as active participation.

The other question is, what was Bolton’s role in this? He’s been lurking just under the radar, but this sort of cut throat retribution seems to fit his operating style.

  • I’m going with the basics. Rove and Libby get perjury, obstruction, and Espionage Act charges. It’s tempting to throw Cheney in there, but the fact that he only testified once tells me it ain’t gonna happen.

  • What I think will happen:
    Rove/Libby/Fleischer/Miller are indicted on conspiracy, obstruction of justice, purjury.

    *maybe* Novak could be added to that list.

    Andy Card gets the political and press fallout for mismanagement, gets fired.

    Hannah/Wurmser are key witnesses for the prosecution.

    All this brings the right to circle the wagons and reunite to push the Miers nomination through.

  • From Frank Rich’s column in the NYT today:

    ” Should Mr. Libby and Mr. Rove have lied to investigators or a grand jury in their panic, Mr. Fitzgerald will bring charges. But that crime would seem a misdemeanor next to the fables that they and their bosses fed the nation and the world as the whys for invading Iraq. ”

    I’m only interested in the real crime that he alludes to, so
    my prediction contains no specifics except that his
    investigation will dead end with the Plame case.
    Plamegate will not blossom into Iraqgate, in other
    words, and these bastards will have gotten away
    with the most heinous crime in U.S. history.

  • I expect that Fitzgerald will indict a very small number, including either both Libby and Rove, or just Libby, and naming a slightly larger number. If it is just Libby and a couple of small fish, then Bush will fire Libby, and then pardon Libby, to prevent “national security breaches” at trial. There will be a brief political firestorm, as Democrats scream in their best alto soprano voices, and, after a brief pause to withdraw the Miers nomination, Bush et al will go right back to work, building the fascist state.

  • I’ll say Libby gets conspiracy, perjury and espionage act, Rove comes in not looking quite as bad but same basic charges (unless he cuts some kind of deal to testify against Libby), and the underlings who are cooperating will get off with some sort of deal cut. Miller will get perjury and conspiracy, if there’s any justice (this is the charge I really want – having the media a co-conspirator). Novak’s been so quiet, he must have cut some kind of deal, though I can’t imagine he could have testified without committing perjury. And then probably some people I’ve never heard of. Cheney will be extremely embarassed, but not charged.

    Since that’s in line with everyone else, here’s the big Hail Mary prediction. Bush is going to withdraw in reality if not in practice. If he doesn’t actually resign, his days will be spent exercising and bike riding and watching TV. The man has always had daddy there to bail him out when things got bad, but there’s no one above you to pull strings when you’re President. A guy like this doesn’t stick it out when you’re hated, especially not for three years. He can’t function without these people around him. That’s why I think he will probably face the public wrath and at least pardon Rove, or for all practical purposes, quit and have whoever’s left sort things out.

  • I’m not sure which of our pipe dreams is worse, bush, cheney and company getting away with the ‘most heinous crime in american history’ or bush leaving us with cheney for 3 years.

  • I’m sorry. My head spins if I try to create a coherent conclusion to this bizarre mess. But whether or not key people take a fall in this debacle, a black hole of power and influence is being created either by the players coming absences or their weakened/diffused authority centers.

    I agree with Memekiller. There has been a power vacume at the top from the very beginning. Shruby is a weak man who’s only real “strength” comes from the luster of wealth and the total illusion of control. When times were good, there were enough spoils to go around so that each player got a handsome cut of riches and/or power in their individual sphere’s of interest. That kept the core group on message. Shruby may depend on his “gut” for direction but he is in fact gutless. He’s not having fun anymore and he really doesn’t give a damn what happens to America just so long as his life-style and that of his family doesn’t change one iota. A large power-grab is in the offing. The profound lack of honest and moral leadership in this country is about to manifest itself in ways that may shock the world. And it’s certainly not going to do us any good.

    Fishing the turds out of the punchbowl may improve the appearance but it’s not going to make the prospect of filling a glass any more palatable.

  • It’s going to turn out that Fitzy is an alien, and when he announces the indictments, he will turn to each indictee and bite their heads clean off. He will then announce that his race has taken over the planet and that we might as well just give up. And it’s all downhill from there.

    That’s not a prediction, that’s a promise!

  • From Reagan’s election as CA Governor through the Shrub’s re-election as POTUS, American politics makes no sense to me anymore. I keep telling myself that the voters can’t be that stupid, but they obviously are. I keep expecting some really good journalists will emerge to blow the lid off, but they never do. Maybe some church leader willing to “speak truth to power”? Not anymore. The legal profession in general and Fitzgerald in particular? I don’t see any Clarence Darrows or even RFKs out there. My guess is that not much will really happen. The Iraq quagmire lying behind it all will go on regardless. Whatever Fitzgerald does will soon fade because the media will be off on something else soon, like Brad Pitt’s or Tom Cruise’s amours. Meanwhile that pesky avian flu virus keeps evolving new adaptations….

  • I’ve been thinking about this for a while. If his history is any guide, Bush only sticks around as long as better people can weave a happy bubble in which for him to live. When the wolves close in and bankruptcy threatens he happily walks off and leaves his lessers to clean up the mess.

    If the happy bubble people go down then I can’t imagine that junior will find presidenting much fun anymore. If Cheney’s already gone, that leaves us with president Hastert for a few years. I can live with that.

  • Espionage (handing classified info to unauthorized persons): Rove, Libby, Fleischer, Hannah, Wurmser

    Conspiracy to commit espionage: Cheney (unindicted), Rove, Hadley, Libby, Fleischer, Bolton

    Perjury/obstruction: all of the above (except Cheney, not under oath), plus any “little folk” who haven’t struck a deal

    Driving under the influence of idiots: Bush (well, there should be a law)

  • In all honesty, Fitzpatrick has kept such a tight lid on this case that I have no idea what’s going to happen. I do think there will be at least one indictment. Most likely Scooter.

    The fallout possibilities are the most intriguing . One sure bet is that presidential credibility and popularity will continue to decline.

    If Fitzpatrick surprises us with sweeping indictments, I’m afraid the Bushies are going to go apeshit. They have no shame, no scruples, and no sense. They’re the same people who cynically used 9/11 and a faith-based invasion for their own selfish purposes. Bush and his band of idiots will repeat what they know by “bringing democracy” to Syria or, maybe, Finland.

    Never forget that Republicans MUST have enemies. Look for the National Terror Alert Contrivance to be elevated to the “Cherry Red” level: Mass Hysteria.

    If that doesn’t work, Bush will announce the coming invasion of the Atomic Mole People. (Along with promises to smoke ’em out, bring ’em to justice, etc.)

  • Well this is definitely the cliffhanger of my lifetime and as nick said above will these thugs get away with the most heinous crime in the history of the country.

    A commentor over at Digby said yesterday that the fate of our democracy lies with 23 people inside of the grand jury room. That said, however this shakes out I don’t see Bush or Cheney going down easy. If we were dealing with rational and sane people I wouldn’t have so much fear about possible outcomes.

    scuse’ me while I adjust this tinfoil hat.

  • No one really knows what will happen. But it is likely to be very big
    and unpleasant. No one goes to this much trouble to just leave things
    hanging. Fitzgerald is planning something big. The Republicans were
    foolish to try to get rid of him and I doubt he has forgotten this.
    Rove and Libby have a lot to worry about and so do other key administration figures.
    And something everyone is forgetting- there is still the small matter of
    Jack Abramoff and his disgusting web of intrigue to deal with. This could
    make the Congress very upsest since so many legislators had dealings with this scumbag and his pals, When the allegations of dealings with Islamic terrorists are brought up concerning Grover Norquist there will be
    hell to pay for the GOP. None of this bodes well for the Republicans,
    who are also facing inquiries for corruption in several states (Ohio, Texas,
    Kentucky).
    Halloween this year could bring more for us than just candy and
    scary masks. Real monsters are being unearthed.

  • Actually, upon reflection, the skeptic in me has taken over. I’m going to revise my previous predictions.

    Scooter libby will be indicted under the Espionage Act.

    Rove will be named, but not indicted, as he was following orders from libby. A textbook leak to the press like this simply isn’t in Karl Rove’s playbook. He’s too smart to leave this easy a paper trail behind.

    Miller and Novak will be indicted under conspiracy and purjury. Unless Novak cut a deal, which is very likely.

    Andy Card will resign or get fired for allowing this to take place. though, the track record of the bush administration shows he might get a promotion.

  • This might be the kick the snowball needs to go downhill on the GOP, or it might be what brings the GOP back together. Its a flip of a coin.

  • Here is my prediction: The forged documents will be key if an indictment is handed down.

    The push back against Wilson began before his Times column. He had been a source for a number of articles in it was reported that the administration had known that the documents were forged. He did not find this out from his Niger trip and may have been overstating what he knew.(Go over to the Daily Howler and plug Wilson into the search engine to get the background. Somerby has done a very good job of reportining this.) Libby et. al. will have told the the Grand Jury that they believed the documents were genuine and were simply trying to correct misconceptions whe they began to contact reporters. Fitzgerald has looked into these documents. Most likely to check if the adminstration,in fact, knew them to be forged and there by putting the lie to Libby et al.’s defense.

    Fitzgerald’s assignment is not to investigate the justification for the Iraq war. But those “oh so smart” Republicans in trying to defend the indefensible may have given him an opening to look into one part of the propaganda machine.

    That’s my senario. If figure I’m likely to be wrong no matter what I guess. Hence I might as well fail big.

  • For Immediate Release.
    Monday, October 17, 2005

    To register for this free event, please contact Jane Dwinell at 802.229.4008/info@vermontrepublic.org
    For press inquiries, please contact Dr. Rob Williams at 802.279.3364/webeditor@vtcommons.org

    THE VERMONT INDEPENDENCE CONVENTION
    An Impossible Dream or a Vision of the Future?

    State House
    Montpelier, Vermont

    October 28, 2005
    James Howard Kunstler, author of The Long Emergency, will be the keynote speaker at The Vermont Convention on Independence to be held in the House Chamber of the State House in Montpelier on Friday October 28th. Sponsored by the Second Vermont Republic, the convention, which will begin at 9:00 a.m. and conclude at 5:00 p.m., is open to the public and free of charge.

    This historic event will be the first statewide convention on secession in the United States since North Carolina voted to secede from the Union on May 20, 1861.

    Other speakers will include Professor Frank Bryan, UVM; Kirkpatrick Sale, author of Human Scale, J. Kevin Graffagnino, Executive Director, Vermont Historical Society; Professor Eric Davis, Middlebury College; Shay Totten, editor, Vermont Guardian; Antoine Robitaille, journalist Le Devoir (Quebec City); G. Roderick Lawrence, CEO, Stevenson Kellogg (Canada); (Rev.) Ben T. Matchstick; and General Ethan Allen (aka Jim Hogue). General Allen is expected to travel by horse to the State House.

    The objectives of the convention are twofold. First, to raise the level of awareness of Vermonters of the feasibility of independence as a viable alternative to a nation which has lost its moral authority and is unsustainable. Second, to provide an example and a process for other states and nations which may be seriously considering separatism, secession, independence, and similar devolutionary strategies.

    The Second Vermont Republic is a peaceful, democratic, grassroots, libertarian populist movement committed to the return of Vermont to its status as an independent republic as it once was between 1777 and 1791.

    For additional information, contact Thomas H. Naylor at 802-425-4133 or Jane Dwinell at 802-229-4008, info@vermontrepublic.org.

  • I always like to read Ed Stephan’s posts so I was looking forward to his prediction here. Geez’ Ed, you’ve become one cynical guy. Don’t give up hope. Eventually the U.S. has always opened their eyes in time. The last few weeks look promising anyway.

    I am predicting eight indictments including Rove and Libby, and I think Cheney is listed as an unindicted co-conspirator. As part of his deal he is forced to resign and John McCain will take over as VP, not Condi Rice.

    Fox News, Hannity, and Limbaugh immediately paint Fitzgerald as a runaway prosecutor trying to make a name for himself. Attack the messenger, not the message.

  • Vermont would make some fine backwoods suburbs for Montreal

    come on over – you are welcome to join Canada

  • Let the frenchies keep em. 😛

    I think Theo Rhapsody is being far too idyllic. You’ll have to drag a whole lot of cold dead corpses out of the white house before John McCain gets to set foot in there.

  • American politics makes no sense to me anymore. I keep telling myself that the voters can’t be that stupid, but they obviously are. I keep expecting some really good journalists will emerge to blow the lid off, but they never do.

    Perhaps it’s fatigue speaking, but I’m afraid I’m thinking the way Ed Stephan is right now. I’ve been on psychic red alert since the 2000 election, hoping my dread of a shrubbish presidency would be unfounded, but at every turn having it proved over and over that my imagination wasn’t up to the scope of evil that lay in store.

    So now I’m just tired. I hope Fitzgerald has a hurricane of charges and indictments up his sleeve, but I hardly dare hope.

  • If I understand the process right: Mr. fitzgerald simply brings the charges he sees just and, of course, “do-able” and the Grand Jury decides on the actual indictments. Fitzgerald is said to be “ballsy” and this administration’s popularity is currently…well…you know…where George Bush was through much of the 70’s and 80’s…under the table.

    So…

    Libby indicted on Espionage

    Rove, Libby, Hannah, Wurmser, Fleischer and Miller on Conspiracy indictments with Cheney, Bolton and Novack (deal cut) named but un-indicted

    Perjury goes to Rove, Libby and Miller
    Obstruction goes to these 3, Hannah and Fleischer.

    Additionally, though no indictments on this issue are forthcoming, Mr. Fitzgerald does, in fact, present a report exposing the true effects of this political catstrophe: the selling of an ujust war to America. Our congress has no alternative but to open up its own investigation. Where that might lead is anybody’s guess. Whatever it is, I expect Col. Wilkerson will be a rather important witness.

  • I almost forgot:

    I believe there may be the issue of “Intimidating Witnesses”. I’m not sure this is an indictable offense or not, but, if so give this one to Libby (of course) with Rove (and maybe Cheney) as unindicted.

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