Sunday Discussion Group

October 30, 2005

After about two years of interest, speculation, rumors, and in some corners, near-obsessive monitoring, the Plame Game came to a head this week, leading to the first indictment of a high-ranking White House official in 130 years.

But expectations can be funny. This week’s discussion topic poses this question: was the indictment against I. Lewis “Scooter” Libby a triumphant conclusion to a shocking political scandal or a sudden letdown?

It seems there are two schools of thought here.

* The Libby indictment is devastating — A top White House aide has been charged with counts of perjury, false statements, and obstruction of justice. The detailed indictment ties much of the West Wing, including the Vice President, to a scandal over leaking classified information to cover up lies regarding a war. Karl Rove continues to be under investigation, and isn’t out of the woods yet, with legal jeopardy hanging over his head for the indefinite future. For that matter, as details emerge through Libby’s trial, the embarrassment for the White House could be ruinous. The public, which may not have heard much about the scandal before, is now learning about the investigation and why it was launched in the first place, further undermining the president’s already-weak public standing. This is the beginning of the end of Bush’s presidency.

* Libby’s indictment is a disheartening letdown — Libby’s charges aren’t related to the leak itself, Cheney knew everything but wasn’t named as a co-conspirator, and Rove looks like he’s going to walk away punishment-free. The indictment makes Libby look bad, but there’s no mention of Niger forgeries or the White House Iraq Group. As a political matter, the news came out on Friday afternoon so most of the country won’t know it happened, Fitzgerald looks like he’s done, and worse, maybe 1% of the country knows who Scooter Libby is. We’d been promised fireworks, this barely produced a spark. Libby will plea bargain his way out of this, Congress won’t hold hearings, and in two years Bush will still be an embarrassing failure, but the Plame scandal will have been forgotten.

What do you think?

Well, I don’t stand in a school of thought relating directly to the question. However, the placement of the news falling on a Friday combined with the fact it will be sandwiched between another supreme court nominee will greatly weaken its impact. I don’t quite understand how the republicans do it so well, but I expect this to just blow over like everything else.

  • I’m gonna have to stick with “I told you so”. Whole lot of flap over nothing much. If the Dems don’t exploit this, beginning now, they don’t deserve to govern, and this once-great nation deserves to lose whatever luster it used to have. I was going to say that we’re quickly becoming just another two-bit nation, but it’s worse: we’re becoming a monumentally murderous two-bit nation without a universal health plan. The world (for us) ends, not with a bang but a wimper.

  • The reason why it was damaging to the U.S. for Plame to be exposed as a CIA operative is just now being talked about. Every mission she had in the past is being researched by other countries and all the contacts she made and other agents she worked with are being researched. Very serious breach of security. The investigation is still alive and was downplayed so as not to create wild speculation. I believe there will be another indictment and the participation by the Vice-president will be looked at.

  • I agree with Ed. The Dems better grow a set of balls,and jump on this now. I don`t know how much jumping they can really do though,since they all voted to let bubble boy,and the rest of the rat bastards have their way with this insane war.If the Dems don`t do something to show some backbone soon it`s game over for them.

  • Ed’s right – the Dems need to jump on this with both feet. The first thing they need to ask is, “what was Cheney’s involvement”?

    They need to be on every Sunday show from now to the end of libby’s trial asking this question, if they can’t make the most of this, they indeed do not “deserve to govern”.

    As to the question if this was “devastating” or a “letdown”, I see it somewhere in-between. Personally, it was a letdown, but the press (for the moment) seems to be a little more eager to look into this, rove’s still under investigation, and (hopefully) the vice-president will be dogged by questions of his involvement for a while.

    Not devastating, but a black eye for sure. Hopefully rove’s indicted too, which would add a well-deserved kick in the nuts to the black eye.

  • It is just an opening for the Democrats. I am not particularly optimistic about how aggressively the Democrats will attack.

    Up until now, Democrats have been handicapped by their spineless support for Bush’s War in Iraq, before the war. This is their opportunity to investigate how Bush lied us into a war, a narrative that gets them off the hook, and incidentally excuses the better part of the American people, who also supported the Iraq War at the outset.

    To be successful, the Democrats have to somehow generate a two-pronged attack: 1.) Investigate the White House Iraq Group; 2.) Investigate the conduct of the occupation/reconstruction (implicitly blaming the failure in Iraq on Bush corruption and incompetence).

    Obviously, without control in either House, Democrats will have to be very creative and, probably ruthless, to trick/motivate the Republicans into initiating two such investigations. Failing that, perhaps investigations should top the Democrat’s proposed “contract with America”.

  • I’m inclined to the “devastated” side of the question. But I wouldn’t use so strong a term. While I’d like to see Rove indicted, a single indictment is enough to establish White House criminality. All the hysterical right-wing protests won’t matter. Bush has a deepening and lasting credibility problem.

    Unless the trial or press discoveries reveal further crime, the case won’t stay at the forefront of the news — but it will stay in the background a long time. The key question is whether Libby’s indictment will lead to a serious examination of the origins of the Iraq invasion. The war’s unpopularity will inevitably grow.

    Many of us — including me — have cited Democratic spinelessness — but in my opinion, the Democrats should simply ask embarrassing questions — relentlessly. Tactically, they shouldn’t start screaming and demanding resignations. That would only make them vulnerable to the very adept Republican counterattacks whose method is to accuse and confuse. Just non-stop questions will do. Republican deception is too pervasive for Republicans to effectively answer all the questions.

    The Democrats, of course, are guilty of abetting the invasion. But they can simply claim that they — and the nation — were duped. It’s a lame excuse, but following the Republican MO, they should just repeat it over and over. Betrayal is a national excuse that would be embraced by the millions of American who went along with the war, but are now sorry they did.

  • One thing I hope Ed’s right about is the lack of a bang if we go out. Democracy in the hands of these criminals is clearly deteriorating a rapid rate displaying our weaknesses to all the world. There are many outside our boarders (and some inside) who would like to take advantage of that right now . . . and there others (in DC) who think that the best way to reverse that state of affairs and to regain their power is to have another catastrophic event. They’ve already proven that there are no depths too low for them to sink to in order to remain in power and boost their ratings (and give Halliburton something expensive to clean up and rebuild) by attempting to galvanize the country again. I think we’ll be incredibly lucky if there isn’t a bang of some kind in our future, especially if these guys aren’t taken down completely.

  • One thing I hope Ed’s right about is the lack of a bang if we go out. Democracy in the hands of these criminals is clearly deteriorating at a rapid rate displaying our weaknesses to all the world. There are many outside our boarders (and some inside) who would like to take advantage of that right now . . . and there others (in DC) who think that the best way to reverse that state of affairs and to regain their power is to have another catastrophic event. They’ve already proven that there are no depths too low for them to sink to in order to remain in power and boost their ratings (and give Halliburton something expensive to clean up and rebuild) by attempting to galvanize the country again. I think we’ll be incredibly lucky if there isn’t a bang of some kind in our future, especially if these guys aren’t taken down quickly and completely.

  • It’s devastating, just not as devastating as some would like.

    Wouldn’t you prefer that Rove (social security reform, tilted tax policy, ‘standing firm’ on Iraq, and various other nutball policy proposals) continue to steer the ship in the White House? Or would you rather somebody with an actual connection to majority opinion out there come in and change the direction of the White House?

    I’ll take Rove, and better chances in 06 and 08.

  • I am very disappointed that there seems to be so much focus in the media and elsewhere on arguing about the legal details of this indictment: Was she covert? Was there an underlying crime? Who was the original leaker and why are they not be prosecuted? etc… The public generally does not care about legal cases unless they involve celebrities or murders of young attractive white women.

    If the Dems let the Repug pundits frame the discussion around Scooter and his “misremembered” (what kind of word is that anyway?) facts, they might as well forget it. It will blow over long before next Nov. The only thing that could possibly have any lasting impact is a swift mobilization of public pressure on Congress (especially the Republicans) to make the White House come clean. This indictment is not going to do it. Libby will take the fall and even do prison time if he has to in order to keep the focus off of the White House and Iraq.

    The bottom line is that the only thing that could really make a difference is a true threat to the next elections. This indictment presents a limited opportunity for the public to demand explanation but it isn’t the explanation. I only hope that the Dems have prepared a strategy that wasn’t counting on a smoking gun.

  • As to this question, so far, it’s a letdown of sorts, since it hasn’t amounted to much advantage. But it has set things in motion – such as the CNN special “Dead Wrong”, which laid out a very strong case (which you had to infer for yourself from the evidence) that the intelligence pre-war was fixed around the policy, as the Brits knew quite well already (Downing memo). That had been a bit of a semi-conspiratorial idea about 1-2 years ago, but that is changing as more and more info leaks out (WHIG, etc). The question for the Dems is how to keep that info stream coming. The reality obviously hasnt been revealed to the extent it needs to be, else Fitzgerald could have brought more indictments. But these guys are slippery and they know how to play this game. The letdown will be if they get Libby to plead guilty, or plea bargain, because we need the trial to reveal more facts. That, unfortunately, is unlikely to happen. So, the question is, with no majority in either the house or senate, how do the Dems press on with revealing the true nature of what led us to war? Well, one idea is that they dont try to hard, because this isnt going to be what finally sinks this rotten ship of a presidency…

    It seems to me that everyone has forgotten the one thing that is really going to end it all for this administration – and its not all the political scandal. Remember the housing bubble? When that slowly deflates and we end up back in recession, which will without a doubt happen before the next presidential election, and could well start before the congressional elections in a year. That will be the final indictment of the absolute mismanagement we’ve suffered under. Once again, it will be the economy stupid, which stinks now, despite the headline numbers, and whose rotten core will be revealed in time. With 80%+ of the income distribution seeings its real wages fall for since this administration took office, despite very low inflation, it doesnt take much to realize that people are living off the imaginary value of their homes, while the top bracket lives off its tax-cut fattened earnings and a myriad of other giveaways theyve been handed.

  • It’s too soon to measure just how bad this will be for the WH. Did Fitz not have the goods to deliver more indictments, or is he applying the final polish to more? We know Rove is still under legal threat, and we know Fitz has a new GJ.

    In a way, Rove twisting in the wind is the worst possible outcome for Bush. It keeps this in the news and on the tongues of the punditry. It’s a gaping wound that continues to fester.

    What becomes of Scooter? Does he have a prolonged public trial that would be a huge embarrasment for the WH, or does he cop a plea and rat out others? Neither option is good news for Bush.

    I don’t think what has happened to date is devastating, but it could get there in a hurry. There’s more to come. But, without knowing what more is in store, I’ll wait and see.

  • I believe what we saw on Friday was an overture. The themes which were introduced will be repeated and explored more deeply in the coming months and weeks. . If time allows I’ll post a comment expanding on this idea latter. For the time being, go read firedoglake, a blog run by a few progressive lawyers, for a better understanding of why I believe this

    Another point. The defeatist reaction of some Democrats to Friday’s announcement leads me to believe that there is a new subgroup of Democrats to be added to the Yellow Dogs and Blue Dogs: the Beat Dogs. I think Bill Clinton would agree with me on this, not that he consults me. Via the Daily Kos,

    Clinton, whose 2004 memoir “My Life” was a best seller, drew roaring applause during his speech from the several hundred people gathered in the Texas House chamber to kick off the 10th annual Texas Book Festival, an event started by first lady Laura Bush when her husband was governor.

    “You can’t say, ‘Please don’t be mean to me. Please let me win sometimes.’ Give me a break here,” Clinton said. “If you don’t want to fight for the future and you can’t figure out how to beat these people then find something else to do.”

    http://firedoglake.blogspot.com/
    http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2005/10/30/85810/572

  • I am disappointed. I would be happy with more indictments. I want Cheney, Rove and the whole WHIG group to go down.

  • It is devestating because Cheney and his Choir are now on record defending Libby the Liar.

    That’s wonderful stuff.

    Better yet is that Libby and his apologists seem to think they can beat Fitz in court.

    They’ve postioned themselves so that they are calling Fitz a liar.

    Fitz isn’t going to like that one wit.
    And Fitz obviously has many a wit.

    All this gurantees that Fitz will behave in court like a cold-blooded murderer.

    Libby doesn’t have a chance.
    He’s a walking dead man on crutches.

    As for Cheney: He must be miserable.
    Every meal he sits down to is beneath the sword of Damocles.

    And that, my friends, is how revenge is best served…
    Let’s enjoy his pain.

  • This is from Josh Marshall:
    “Go to page 5 of the indictment. Top of the page, item #9.

    On or about June 12, 2003, LIBBY was advised by the Vice President of the United States that Wilson’s wife worked at the Central Intelligence Agency in the Counterproliferation Divison. LIBBY understood that the Vice President had learned this information from the CIA.
    This is a crucial piece of information. The Counterproliferation Division (CPD) is part of the CIA’s Directorate of Operations, i.e., not the Directorate of Intelligence, the branch of the CIA where ‘analysts’ come from, but the DO, where the spies, the ‘operatives’, come from.

    Libby’s a long time national security hand. He knows exactly what CPD is and where it is. So does Cheney. They both knew. It’s right there in the indictment.”
    Josh Marshall

    Indicted or not, Cheney was in it up to his eyeballs. Also there are TV appearances of him saying he never heard of Joe Wilson till after the
    Novak column. And let’s not forget Mr. Bush who made serval statements denying any knowlege about the whole thing.

    The Dems have all the proof they need to run the GOP out of the country. All they have to do is point out Cheney and Bush as the liars they are.

    But then again, that’s a big if.

  • Disappointed: Is that all there is?!

    Libby seems to be the designated javelin catcher.

    Libby pleads guilty, no trial.

    At some point Bush pardons Libby.

    By By Miss American pie.

    The country continues its slide into decline.

  • Not to sound like a waffling politician, but it is both disappointing (for us, for now), and devestating (if – and its a big big if – the Dems can get their heads out and take this opportunity).

    It is certainly disappointing that there is only one person indicted, a person 99.9% of America is not familiar with, and on an “indirect” crime. One can only hope that Fitz follows up his Capra-esque rhetoric on truth and justice with tenaciousness in eventually charging the underlying crime of outing an agent.

    On the other hand, while the WH breaths a deep sign, look closely at the WaPo today for a key poll on government ethics. . . this is the nail in the coffin, the boulder that starts an avalanche out of all of the loose rocks gathering lately. Bush, who came to DC on a promise to clean up the government is now seen by the public as unethical – a large percentage believe ethics in government have gone down in Dumbya’s tenure. With the momentum this perception now has, Libby’s indictment will oneday be looked back on as the final straw, the point where the book of history turned against Bush. It is devestating, but in the sense of a cancer, not a beheading.

  • It’s amazing that someone with a commitment to objective ethical standards was allowed to pursue this, in this administration. None of the other wrongs they’ve committed have resulted in any such thing. So put me down as surprised.

  • “Indicted” is not the same as “legally proven”, which in turn is not the same as “convicted in the court of public opinion”. The indictment is good, as far as it goes, but it would not hurt to hammer the Bush folks about their ongoing pattern of lies and character assassinations, from lies about Gore and McCain’s ‘black baby’, to the SwiftLiars for Bush. The message isn’t “boohoo, the Republicans aren’t playing fair”, it’s “Wake up Americans, you are being systematically lied to, and you have been swallowing it wholesale because you are way too gullible – if you don’t get smarter quickly, you’re at risk of failing Benjamin Franklin’s admonition, ‘a republic, if you can keep it.’ “

  • Frank Rich makes a good point in his NY Times piece today, namely, that Watergate also seemed like a flub at first.

    TO believe that the Bush-Cheney scandals will be behind us anytime soon you’d have to believe that the Nixon-Agnew scandals peaked when G. Gordon Liddy and his bumbling band were nailed for the Watergate break-in. But Watergate played out for nearly two years after the gang that burglarized Democratic headquarters was indicted by a federal grand jury; it even dragged on for more than a year after Nixon took “responsibility” for the scandal, sacrificed his two top aides and weathered the indictments of two first-term cabinet members. In those ensuing months, America would come to see that the original petty crime was merely the leading edge of thematically related but wildly disparate abuses of power that Nixon’s attorney general, John Mitchell, would name “the White House horrors.”

    Cold comfort at the moment, but there is certainly still hope. I just re-watched “All the President’s Men” last night. Some of today’s “journalists” — and a lot more of today’s Democrats — ought to do that, too. It’s way too early to throw in the towel.

  • Anyone who thinks that the Libby indictment is a disheartening letdown is young, naive and ideological in the extreme. The legal system now has a harpoon in the side of the Bush administration. Felonies have been committed. A member of the core White House team has resigned.

    It took YEARS for Watergate to play out, and even then it only did so with the help of an FBI informant. This investigation will continue, whether Fitzgerald heads it up or not. The historical perspective is already hardening: Bush didn’t tell the truth about Iraq when he started the war. And that’s not just what the left believes, that’s what the center believes.

    So stop wringing your hands if you think Bush is getting away with something. He’s not. He’s stuck and he’s bleeding. Big Time.

  • One more quote along these (more optimistic, or realistic) lines. This is from Lawrence O’Donnel in the Huggington Post:

    ‘The White House dodged a bullet’ is the single stupidest bit of nonstop echo punditry we’ve heard this weekend. Karl Rove not getting indicted presents the White House with a worse problem than an indictment would have. The problem being—Rove is going to go to work Monday morning at the White House with TV cameras following his every move and with 47% of the public believing he did something wrong, according to today’s Washington Post poll.

    What the White House desperately needed on Friday was Rove’s resignation. As long as he keeps his White House pass, Rove is a cancer on the presidency.

    That’s the illness John Deane diagnosed for Richard Nixon’s White House long ago. Democrats, Carpete diem.

  • Aaaack (we gotta get an editor here): that’s “O’Donnell” and “Huffington” and “Dean” and ….? At least I got the Latin right (I hope).

  • OY is right on with the harpoon metaphor.

    I think that public consciousness is the key and in the last few months with Katrina, growing disatisfaction over the war, high gas prices, and the Harriet Miers debacle, the public (and the press), are starting to question a lot things that they wouldn’t during the heat of the election.

    Now is not the time to give up hope, I just read a short piece last night about uber conservative Grover Norquist and the Social Security thing is getting ready to rear it’s ugly head once again.

  • I think Gary Johnson’s right about libby’s future.

    I’ve got to imagine he’s going to plead guilty – the last thing the administration wants is some kind of trial – libby gets “X” years (doesn’t matter if it’s 150) then gets a pardon as the chimp wanders off to Texas in 2k8 – he does 2-3 years max.

    He’ll take one for the team & get a job at fox news when he’s out.

  • Let’s not forget that the real damage to the Clinton White House came as a result of the civil suit brought by Paula Jones, NOT as a result of the criminal investigations. The legacy of the Paula Jones case includes the fact that a sitting president is not protected from civil liability.

    Valerie Plame Wilson can (and, I trust, will) bring a civil suit against Scooter Libby, Karl Rove, Dick Cheney and George W. Bush. After all, they destroyed her career. They would all have to be deposed under oath…and depositions generally are a lot less restrictive than trial testimony, which means a lot of areas of inquiry that a trial court would reject could still be explored in deposition.

    This case isn’t going away.

  • What did Winston Churchill once say: This is the end of the beginning.
    Fitzgerald is the consumate gamesman. In one fell swoop he has
    removed one player from the game (Libby) and immobilized another key
    player (Rove). The pawns he has left in place for now. But he has his
    eye on the bigger pieces: Cheney and Bush. They’re turn is coming.
    It would be instructive to see how Fitzgerald prosecuted his successful cases against Al Qaida and the mob. This could give us a blueprint
    for the strategy he plans to use in this case. He is taking his time
    in this one. He chose carefully the charges he made, no more no less.
    But notice how he laid out his case in his introduction. Why bring this
    up if he has no intention of dealing with these points? He does. But all in
    good time. Once the case is prosecuted in open court there is no
    telling where it could go.
    I hope Dickie and Georgie have their stories straight. They may be called on soon to tell their side of this sorry tale. It might be a good time for them
    to join the “reality based community.” That’s the one Patrick Fitzgerald
    lives and operates in.

  • Suggestion: Go read Josh Micah Marshall…
    NOW!

    The noose is starting to close.

    Putting the current situation in blunt terms:

    The Vice President of the USA is a traitor.

    Chew on that statement a bit.

    How does that make you feel?

    Sick in your gut?
    Devastated?

    How about:
    Wanting to cry for the what’s happened to your good country?
    Wanting to sob for what’s been done in your good name?

    ALL OF THOSE AND MORE I HOPE….
    ALL OF THOSE AND MORE….

    America the Beauty has arguably suffered her worst cancer…
    This is way past devastating…
    Way past….

  • I’m gratified. I can’t imagine this will play well in places like Kansas. I think ultimately the steady “drip, drip” of corruption and incompetence will lead people to think, “Where’s there’s smoke, there’s fire. Time for a change.”

  • Unfortunately, it appears things may have to get worse before they get better. NBC News is reporting the Sup Ct nomination will come tomorrow and will be either Alito or Luttig. Lets see if the D’s have the guts to stand firm and filibuster if need be – and obtain and maintain party line discipline.

    I think the PR spin is easy: this is a radical choice of a President caving into the radical right, willing to let Pat Robertson — who suggested assassinating a head of state! — and James Dobson — who claimed to have secret information withheld from the American public on Miers! — pack the one neutral branch of the government with those who would legislate morality from the bench. Now is the time for the President to finally hear us when we say we expect him to keep his campaign promise to be a uniter, not a divider. That — not another polarizing choice — is how we heal from his White House being exposed for uncovering a CIA agent, exposed for placing cronys at FEMA that cost a thousand American lives.

    Can we? Will we? If the Right beat him on Miers and the left beats him on Alito/Luttig, he will be in a world of trouble.

  • Take a read of this piece which details the devastating investigation into Illinois corruption by Elliot Ness – I mean Patrick Fitzgerald. Pay attention to the conviction rate near the end of this snippet:

    http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/chi-031217ryindict,0,5180733.story

    …snip…

    The investigation, dubbed Operation Safe Road, initially focused on bribes exchanged for licenses for unqualified truck drivers when Ryan was secretary of state. It expanded into a broader investigation of political corruption that snared several of his top aides and associates.

    “It was not opened up as an investigation of George Ryan, it was opened up as an investigation of licenses for bribes at the secretary of state’s office,” Fitzgerald said.

    *****Fitzgerald said today was the last day that the current grand jury was impaneled.*****

    Ryan became the 66th person charged in the investigation; *****59 people and his campaign committee have been convicted so far.*****

    …end snip…

  • EXTREMELY disappointed here. I’ve been following this investigation since 2003, and i kept shaking my head, saying, why doesn’t this make front page news? If it did, people would know what was going on, and… well, it IS front page news at CNN now, and it didn’t cause the uproar I really thought it would. I really, really hope they keep going with this investigation and the Dems step up to the plate. I have to say, though, it was heartening to read that Harry Reid (Senate minority leader) is calling for Rove to be fired and W. and Cheney to give their own explanations to the public…here’s the link to the article:

    http://www.cnn.com/2005/POLITICS/10/30/leak.probe/index.html

    Hopefully the Dems keep raising hell!

  • Oy’s analogy to the Bushie’s being “stuck and bleeding” from a solid hit with a harpoon gives me more satisfaction than such a visual should. But I am hoping for hemophilia on top of that.

    Nevertheless, the Clinton quote which Rege found at Daily Kos:

    “You can’t say, ‘Please don’t be mean to me. Please let me win sometimes.’ Give me a break here,” Clinton said. “If you don’t want to fight for the future and you can’t figure out how to beat these people then find something else to do.”

    …is what must come next if anything is to come of all this. Mr. Fitzgerald has put an extra layer of meat on an already unwieldy Club Sandwich. It’s stuffed with tasty goodies but the Democrats seem to find it so intimidating and potentially messy that they can’t take a bite. Where to start? Enough already. It’s time to eat.

    The meek may inherit the earth in some story somewhere but as Mr. Fitzgerald has demonstrated, it can be done more effectively with a dedication to integrity, an unyielding pursuit of the facts and a commitment to letting the cards fall where they may.

    Thank you Patrick Fitzgerald for throwing the harpoon with a dead eye. Now it’s time to twist that son of a bitch.

  • Devastating on several counts:

    1. Cheney will almost certainly have to testify.
    2. If the “get the small fish in order to get the big fish” rule applies, Rove is in for some pretty serious jail time if he’s indicted.
    3. This is not only the beginning of the end for Shrub, but for the Repub Congress.

  • Nick:

    Yeah, I do, but them I’m a Dem. I’m not an outside-the-party complainer, or a non-Dem progressive, or an angry-lefty, or a hand-wringing peacenik.

    I’m a Dem. And not only do I think the Dems will take advantage of this, I think they already are. Reid made a few comments on Sunday and the press ran with it all day. Bush is going with a new Supreme Court nominee immediately to try to change the subject, but that’s going to blow up in his face one of two ways:

    1) He picks a moderate, and the Dems approve the guy in two seconds, keeping their guns trained on Bush’s culture of corruption.

    2) He picks a right-wing nut job and the Dems point out what a nut he is, and how out of the mainstream, forcing the 14 moderates to choose sides and decide whether to play the nuclear option.

    a. If they don’t pull the trigger, the nominee falls, and Bush has strike two.

    b. If they do pull the trigger, the moderates (like Spector), who’s really pissed about Miers, will have a hard time voting for a right-wing crazy, and my guess is the filibuster will stand. Strike two again.

    In the meantime, the Dems can continue to pound away at Rove, Cheney, Bush, Iraq, what he was going to do to SS, etc.

    This is a target rich environment.
    `

  • I think you have to take *all* of Fitz’s comments together:

    * “this is ongoing”
    * “need to make fine judgements to determine if a crime should be prosectuted”
    * [the obstruction of Libby has so far] prevented us from making those judgements”

    This looks to me like he’s pretty sure what happened, he just doesn’t really know why
    yet, and he needs to break Libby to find out.

    So that makes me think that he really may have a lot of other people in his sightes
    – he’s just not sure yet about the motives of each.

    So he went with something he could definitely get, in order to pressure both Libby
    and others. Notice how the indictment is fairly detailed, and actually *does* outline
    breachs of the Espionage and Identities acts.

    This looks like it is just his opening salvo.

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