Sunday Discussion Group

July 16, 2006

For all the political news we cover here, I’m generally not on the Middle East/escalating violence/regional war beat. But a) that doesn’t mean I’m not following developments with great interest; and b) that’s no reason why we can’t open the subject up to some discussion.

So, how scary is the Middle East? Israel, after provocation, is intent on putting Hezbollah “out of business.” Iran’s involvement in orchestrating recent events is unclear. So is Syria’s.

There are, of course, far more questions than answers. Will Hezbollah thrive in an unstable environment? Is Lebanon facing a civil war? Will Saudi Arabia stay on the sidelines? What’s Israel’s next move? And turning our attention closer to home, is there any chance President Bush is capable of showing some leadership in response to the crisis?

With the world’s most perplexing problems weighing on him, President Bush has sought comic relief in a certain pig.

This is the wild game boar that German chef Olaf Micheel bagged for Bush and served Thursday evening at a barbecue in Trinwillershagen, a tiny town on the Baltic Sea.

“I understand I may have the honor of slicing the pig,” Bush said at a news conference earlier in the day punctuated with questions about spreading violence in the Middle East and an intensifying standoff with Iran about nuclear power.

The president’s host, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, started a serious ball rolling at this news conference in the 13th-century town hall on the cobblestone square of Stralsund. But Bush seemed more focused on “the feast” promised later. “Thanks for having me,” Bush told the chancellor. “I’m looking forward to that pig tonight.”

(The video is even less encouraging.)

The Wall Street Journal noted yesterday that the Bush administration has, up until recently, considered “Israel, Palestinian territories, Lebanon and Afghanistan…as bright spots for [the president’s] policies.”

Are there any bright spots? And how close are we to seeing the Middle East spiral into chaos?

July 16, 2006 at 10:40 am

This is going one of two ways, I think.

Either the Shia and Sunnis are going two start a sectarian war in the whole region,

or Isreal will distract both parties and get them to turn their attentions towards Isreal.

I think the Saudi comments about Hezbollah not getting the ‘permission’ of the wider Arab world for their kidnapping attempt is telling. They may have finally decided they don’t really want to see a Shite arc from the Mediterranian to the Persian Gulf.

And I don’t think anyone on the Sunni side wants a war with Isreal.

Just a thought.

This is not original by me but I agree with those who have said that this could turn out to be the excuse the neocons have been waiting for to attack Iran. Remember, everyone wants to take Baghdad, real men want to take Tehran.

Israel has learned from its history that there is nothing – absolutely nothing – that a country can do to stop those who want to fight against it from doing so.

First, the political “solutions”: Partitioning the land between Israel, Jordan and Egypt (1949-67) didn’t work. Occupying territory militarily (1967-93) didn’t work. Offering a staged withdrawal leading to a Palestinian state (Oslo, 1993-2000) didn’t work. Offering a comprehensive withdrawal leading to a Palestinian state (Camp David, 2000) didn’t work. Unilateral withdrawal (S Lebanon, 2000; Gaza, 2005) hasn’t worked so far.

Nor has there been an obvious military solution. Conventional military victories (1948, 1956, 1967, 1973) eventually brought peace with Egypt and then Jordan, but not with the assorted terrorist gangs in the West Bank, Gaza, and southern Lebanon. Destroying a series of Palestinian terrorist ministates (Jordan, 1971; Lebanon, 1982; the West Bank, 2003) didn’t work. The first intifada (1987-90) and second intifada (2000-2003) were put down, but reaped local resentment and global condemnation.

The problem is that, to defeat an enemy, the enemy has to have enough rationality to accept defeat, lower its expectations and seek ways of living together. Palestinians and, apparently, Lebanese haven’t accepted defeat so far. Building a new society in the enemy’s territory from the ground up (Germany and Japan post-WWII) is obviously not an option for Israel.

I guess Israel’s only option at this point is, first, to defend itself, and second, to make it clear to its many enemies that there are rewards for peace. This requires a level of political maturity and self-confidence that is obviously behind the fanatics of Hamas, Hezbollah, or Iran.

But maybe, just maybe, ordinary Lebanese have become as fed up with Hezbollah as they were with Syria after the Hariri bombing, and will finally insist that their government exert its sovereignty over the whole of its territory (if the US & EU were to offer Lebanon assistance in doing this, it would be a huge step towards peace, but I’m not holding my breath awaiting such creativity).

And maybe, just maybe, ordinary Palestinians will someday realise that terrorism prolongs the occupation and makes a state less likely. That Israel’s withdrawal from Gaza, and talk of withdrawal from most of the West Bank, comes not because of terrorism, but in spite of it (actually, in the wake of some pretty solid victories over terrorism – remember, the military leadership of Hamas and AAMB were mostly wiped out). But I’m really not holding my breath on this one.

For now, I think Israel has offered a crystal clear message to the Palestinians and Lebanese, and I hope they take the hint. But this being the Middle East, I doubt they will.

I’m very pessimistic that things will improve in the foreseeable future. Bush has not only squandered any moral authority we might have brought to bear diplomatically, he’s got our military spread to thin to enforce anything. In short, he’s lost the carrot and the stick.

Israel is emboldened to lash out militarily, while Iran and Syria know we’re pinned down in Iraq. It’s a recipe for disaster.

The irony is that the governments in Iran and Palestine were elected democratically and in direct reaction to Bush’s mid-east policies. That whole idea of spreading democracy sure seems to working out swell.

If I had been elected in 2000…
one of my first moves would have been gathering together of retired US Presidents:

Clinton, Bush pere, Ford, Carter.

I’d have made them into a commission whose sole purpose was to negotiate peace in the Middle East.

Relentlessly and agressively negotiate peace!
I WANT THIS PROBLEM SOLVED!
Dammit.
SOLVED!

I would have given them firm directions:

Palestinians need the United States (and the rest of the world) to fund their new state.

So not only do we need to create that state…. but fund them a start-up economy that gives them future hope.

But, of course, folks elected Bush instead of someone like me.

And we all know Bush has got the creatively of a rotting cadaver.

He is artless, unthoughtful, unwanted, crude, and rude.

Which coincidentally,
is exactly the situation the Middle East has taken at his helm.

In short:

The Middle East will only rot more under his lack of care. There is no hope until Bush is gone from office…

“Defending itself” and wiping out a convoy of villagers trying to get away from the fighting are two very different things – the photos are out there to be seen, tell me a 5 year old with his arm blown off was a “terrorist.” The last country that used “collective punishment” for those who resisted it was one the people who came to Israel knew too well. It didn’t work for them either, and it hasn’t worked for Israel since they first started ethnic cleansing in 1949.

The Crusades lasted for 200 years, and while we in the West think of them as separate events, the warfare in the Holy Land was continuous during that time, because the “natives” weren’t “rational enough” to accept defeat.
They kept it up till the last one was killed in Acre in 1215.

These two precedents are not the kind of things to go repeating. As an Israeli friend of mine who is a fghter ace from two wars said in an e-mail recently, their problem is their leader is like ours – he has never served in the military, never seen war, and has no clue what he’s doing. And according to my friend, there are no “strategists” left in the upper ranks of the IDF after 20 years of fighting in the West Bank, only “tacticians.” None of this looks good.

And Idiot Boy in the White House probably thinks it’s his chance to help promote Armageddon and get to be part of the Rapture.

This is all extremely discouraging. Reading that asshole Kristol braying that “this is our war” I want to say to him, why don’t you go volunteer for the IDF if you’re such a big Israel supporter? Of course, like all those neocon con artists and cowards, he’s a big believer in “let’s you and him fight.”

There are no bright spots unless the U.S. pressures Israel to step back from the brink. Look what triggered this: An attack at an Israeli checkpoint and the abduction of an Israeli soldier by Hamas militants. The proper response is surgical strikes and rescue missions, not a full-blown regional war that alienates the few “allies” the U.S. has in the region. Israel’s reaction has been disproportionate to the triggering incident, and it will foster years of resentment and hostility to the U.S. and Israel unless the U.S. adopts a saner Middle East policy. That means talking to Syria, Iran, Hezbollah, and above all Hamas. Do we have to offer concessions to these entities? Absolutely not. But we should be sitting down at the table like adults and talking to all the players. Like it or not, all of them are players in the region. Ignoring them because we don’t like them isn’t working as a policy.

I recognize Israel’s “right to exist.” But I’ve never understood the blind loyalty the U.S. shows to that nation, particularly given that it on occasion working against the U.S.’ interests. I’d hope we’d adopt a more realistic approach to Israel, but I won’t hold my breath.

With the Bush administration allow the situation to descend into chaos? Is the sun shining?

This is published both at No Quarter and at my blog, That’s Another Fine Mess. Larry C. Johnson spent most of his career with the CIA and the State Department dealing with the Middle East. I would suggest he might have more informed insight than many of us.

Israel Takes A Stupid Pill
by
Larry C Johnson

Apparently not content to let the U.S. do a self-immolation act in the Middle East by itself, Israel decided to set itself on fire by invading Lebanon. Burn baby burn? Like George Bush, Israel’s Prime Minister, Ehud Olmert, never served in a combat unit and launched military operations without thinking the matter through. In fact, Olmert reportedly never even served in the military. I raise this because there is one simple question Israel cannot answer about the current operations–what is their strategic military objective. Olmert has somehow persuaded the Israeli
military to ignore strategy, think tactically, and in the process become really stupid. The events in the next several weeks will expose as myth the canard that you can secure a nation by killing terrorists. No you can’t.

Killing “terrorists” has a place in policy but it is not a strategic military obective. It is a tactical objective and may serve political purposes, but achieves little in terms of securing Israel. Israel is attacking targets in Lebanon like a drunken sailor in a bar fight. Flailing about, causing
significant damage, hitting innocent bystanders, and generally making a mess of things. This is not the Israeli military that pulled off the brilliant and daring raid at Entebbe.

What about Hamas and Hezbollah?

They are not terrorists. They carry out terrorist attacks, but they are not terrorists. They are something far more dangerous. They are a fully functioning political, social, religious, and military organizations that use terrorism tactics, but they are far more formidible than terrorist groups like Al Qaeda or the Basque Terrorist Organization. They do have the esources and the personnel to project force, sustain operations, and cannot be easily defeated. Unlike the Egyptian and Syrian armies in 1973, Hamas and Hezbollah will not easily fold and cannot be defeated in a seven day war. If that is the assumption among some Israeli military planners it is a crazy fantasy.

While most folks in the United States buy into the Hollywood storyline of poor little Israel fighting for it’s survival against big, bad Muslims, the reality unfolding on our TV screens shows something else. “Exodus,” starring Paul Newman, is ancient history. Hamas and Hezbollah attacked military targets–kidnaping soldiers on military patrols may be an act of war and a
provocation, but it is not terrorism. (And yes, Hezbollah and Hamas have carried out terrorist attacks in the past against Israeli civilians. I’m not ignoring those acts, I condemn them, but we need to understand what the dynamics are right now.) Israel is not attacking the individuals who
hit their soldiers. Israel is engaged in mass punishment.

How did Israel respond? They bombed civilian targets and civilian infrastructure and have killed many civilians. Let’s see if I have this right. The Arab “terrorists” attack military units, destroy at least one tank, and are therefore terrorists. Israel retaliates by launching aerial, naval, and
artillery bombardments of civilian areas and they are engaging in self-defense. If we are unable to recognize the hypocrisy of this construct then we ourselves are so enveloped by propaganda and emotion that, like the Israelis, Hezbollah, and Hamas, we can’t think rationally. We can only
think in terms of tribalism and revenge.

Iran, meanwhile, is sitting in the catbird’s seat. They have a well-trained and highly competent surrogate force in Hezbollah. Hezbollah’s successful attack on Friday on an Israeli naval vessel is a reminder that Hezbollah is not a bunch of crazy kids carrying RPGs and wearing flip flops. I would be willing to wager that at least one Iranian military advisor was helping Hezbollah launch the missile that hit the Israeli ship. But Iran is doing more than simply engage in tit-for-tat. They are thinking strategically.

The events unfolding in Iraq and Lebanon are going Tehran’s way. The United States is being portrayed in the world media as someone who tolerates and excuses attacks on civilian populations. The perception becomes the reality and the ability of the United States to rally support among the Russians, the Chinese, and even the French becomes more impaired. We need the international community to deal effectively with nuclear proliferation in North Korea and Iran. Now, we will be bogged down trying to defend Israel from an angry international community.

In the past, the United States had enough credibility on both sides and kept enough of a distance during these blood feuds so that we could intervene and prevent the fighting from escalating into a gigantic war. It appears that there is no one in the Bush Administration who can step up and intervene to calm the situation. Hell, with John Bolton and Elliot Abrams leading the charge, we are Israel’s enablers.

Former Senator Fred Thompson played a U.S. Navy Admiral in “The Hunt for Red October.” While speaking about escalating tensions as the United States and the Soviet Union chased a renegade submarine, he said:

“This business will get out of control. It will get out of control and we’ll be lucky to live through it.”

Those words are relevant today. Let’s hope and pray they don’t come to pass.

I, too, think that this is very likely a neocon back-door ploy to get to Iran without having to overtly invade it ourselves, at least in part. Everything is just a little too neat and convenient to be purely coincidence. Plus the obvious fact that the U.S. is preventing singlehanded every effort to stop the bloodshed clearly shows that the White House thinks it’s a really neat idea.

Little boys are running this country, who have no idea what the consequences will be if and when the whole Middle East goes up in flames. There must be somebody out there who can break the spell that these evil wizards have cast on the world. And make it snappy, please!

Here’s a good analysis from the Guardian. It’s objective and well-constructed:

http://observer.guardian.co.uk/focus/story/0,,1821573,00.html?gusrc=rs

I think the Israeli attack on Lebanon goes beyond what would be justified by the kidnapping of two of its soldiers. This suggests that there is a hidden Israeli agenda which contains at least one more item than the return of those soldiers. My guess is that the destruction of Hezbollah is on the to-do list. This does not bode well for the stability of the Middle East, because that is a long term project and protracted conflict will likely further radicalize the Muslim world. Further, since Israel is seen as a US client state within the Muslim world, some of the ire will be directed to America, as Juan Cole has pointed out.

This very dangerous situation would have me nervous under any circumstances, but with the incompetent Bush administration in the White House it has me deeply concerned. When considering the damage that BushCo. has done or could do, typically I am somewhat sanguine, because I think that a Democratic win in November would ameliorate the situation. This is a case where irreversible damage may be done by BushCo.’s ham handed diplomacy-pig reference intentional- long before Democrats are in a position to prevent it.

Thanks Tom, for:

Israel Takes A Stupid Pill — by Larry C Johnson

The Guardian article is by far the best analysis I’ve read. Thanks for posting it.

From the Nation on the BushCo.’s failed Middle East policies,

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has said that Syria has a special responsibility to resolve this crisis. But the whole thrust of American policy of the last two years has been to reduce unconditionally Syria’s influence in Lebanon so as to leave Lebanon to the Lebanese. By what logic does the Administration now seek to hold Syria accountable for the reckless action of Hezbollah militia in southern Lebanon? As Cole suggests, the hasty unplanned departure of Syrian forces may have ironically given Hezbollah more freedom to act than before. A dialogue with Syria together with an effort to have a more careful planned disengagement of Syrian forces would have given the Lebanese government a better chance of establishing control over its sovereignty in southern Lebanon.

Alibubba, I too thank you for the Guardian link. It gives an excellent appraisal of the situation.

Anyone remember the June deaths of a Palestinian family on a Gaza beach? I’ve been curious about the investigation by Human Rights Watch and Israeli Channel 10 TV into the events. There seems to be evidence that this was a shelling from Israeli artillery. Was this Hezbollah’s original excuse for the kidnappings? Anyone else been following this story?

I have seen a number of commentators, not least the WaPo, seemingly cutting Dumbya some slack because so many bad things are happening at once that no administration could possibly manage them all! THis is, of course, truly stupid analysis: first, BushCo’s outright spitefulness toward “the world community,” his cowboy mentality, and his general pissing off of most of our allies created a general climate for much that followed; second, many of the hot spots have been simmering for most of his tenure and he could have addressed them over time but chose not to; and third, by getting mired in Afghanistan and Iraq without a plan while cutting taxes for the rich, he left us with virtually no resources to address simultaneous problems — a fact not lost on agitators who are not the stupid neandrethals NeoCons view them as.

If Israel plays this perfectly, and turns the Lebanese population aginst Hezbollah (and there has been a fair amount of this in the early days of the conlict) it will look brilliant. Unfortunately, I suspect Israel has already overplayed to get that result. Frankly, I trust Israel to get Middle East policy right more than I trust Dumbya.

But much of the problem is America’s “do as I say, not as I do” policy. We tell Israel and Lebanon “we know you’ve suffered hostile acts, but exercise restraint.” Why are we the only ones who get to use “shock and awe” and to decide when that is appropriate? Hell, Iraq hadn’t even kidnapped two of our soldiers. Who are we to say “now now, that response is disproportionate”? And to make sure this is not just blaming the US, who is Putin to say, as he did yesterday, that while kidnapping may be an unlawful and hostile act, it does not justify full application of force? Hello? What did Russia do in response ot Beslan, which was a kidnapping after all? Is is any wonder no one in the Middle East takes seriously the policy exhortations of the “great powers”?

At the end of the day, it seems to me the big underlying problem is that the world, collectively, has yet to truly figure out an effective way to deal with radical stateless forces. Israel and Abbas were well on their way to a coexistence that was quite calm in the grand scheme of history, and the new Lebanese government also was having no real problems with Israel. Hamas and Hezbollah’s entire reason for existence dries up should peace ever prevail (and dont kid yourself about this being Israel’s fault of existing — even in the billion-to-1 chance that peace came because Hamas and Hezbollah defeated Israel, they would then turn to inter-Islamic-sectarian warring, or fighting each other over control of what had been Israel. This is all Hamas and Hezbollah know to do., It is why they are formed. They are proving as we speak in Gaza that they are incapable of governing – much like our own Republican’ts who only know how to “fight” campaigns.)

For both political and security reasons, you can’t not fight these stateless enemies. Yet they are almost impossible to fight. You can’t effectively talk to them, yet not talking leaves no path to a solution. I dont know the answer, but if there is one place the “big strategic thinkers” of the world would do immense good by focusing their efforts, it would be a strategy to deal with stateless forces.

I’ll join the chorus and say that the Guardian article is excellent.

To add to the bad news, Larry Johnson tells me he thinks his last post – which I put up here – was “quite optimistic” in light of what’s gone on since he wrote it. Since I didn’t think it was optimistic at all, I can only cringe at what’s coming.

Listening this morning to The Blubberer as he said “We…uhh…we see…ahh…that the… ummm… recent events have….ohhhhh ….clarified…the….mmmmm….instability.”

“Clarified the instability”???? God help us all.

I can’t say that I see recent events as the result of some larger, darker strategy on the part of any country or group, even though one or more could benefit if events play out according to the right scenario. More predictable may be the losers, which I’m guessing may be everyone but Iran.

What’s happening feels more like the result of individual governments who have failed their respective countries by not solving long-standing differences diplomatically. Misguided and/or incompetent governments in Israel, Palestine, Syria, Lebanon, Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan and the U.S. have come together at a point in time, assembling a critical mass of players, differences and acts that are beginning to fuel a self-sustaining reaction.

koreyel in #5 (“I want this problem solved!”) comes closest to what I’ve felt for a long time — if not in 2000, then certainly after 9/11. Of course, Bush blew that opportunity and went on a moral crusade instead. Perhaps the current outbreak will present another opportunity. I certainly hope so, because one can only imagine where this type of conflict could go in a decade or so when some of these countries have nuclear weapons.

Excellent find by Tom there. There are many articles from many viewpoints online, and as always when discussing this topic comments can become heated and passionate. I think Kevin Drum says it best when he talks about why he avoids writing on this topic. There is a lot of racism on both sides which makes it an explosive topic. That aside, I don’t see many bright spots here.
1.
The US has been agitating for a confrontation with Iran, and one way or another they were going to get it. An attack on Iran will be horrible for so many nations in so many ways. Plenty of material has been written on this topic.
2.
The western media has a slant favoring Israel. This makes it hard for objective opinions to be formed. In turn, there is little domestic pressure on the administration to put pressure on Israel to cool their jets.
3.
Hezbollah and the extremist wing of Hamas don’t want peace as it threatens their legitimacy. As for why Israel is so against peace, I have no idea. In this way Hezbollah is a lot like Bush and the GOP – they need a war or crisis in order to thrive.
4.
For those interested I would point them to a few articles by Billmon. He has an interesting take on the first 3 days of the Lebanon invasion. He feels that Israel is losing the war. There are a couple of posts there that you can navigate through off of the main page, and I would recommend this one as well where he describes this latest escalation as a no win scenario for Israel. No, he is not against Israel. He just feels that they have got themselves into a lot of trouble this time.
5.
I am reading many conflicting accounts of how the populace in Lebanon are reacting. Some say that the people are firmly behind Hezbollah, while others say that the people are turning against them because they messed up the tourist season and brought Israel back in. I have no idea which is true.
6.
The NYT published an article claiming that Syria is happy with the turn of events. I doubt that, and it seems the NYT would like to pour more fuel on the fire.
7.
Iran has pledged to support Syria if they are attacked. Israel has given Syria 72 hours to pressure Hezbollah to co-operate. If not, Israel will attack Syria, and Iran will jump in formally. Hello s**tstorm!
Not a rosy view of things to come….

Looking at the big picture — the Korean missle tests, the Indian missle tests, the Iranian nuclear “crisis,” the fall of Somalia to Islamic fundamentalists, the worsening conditions in Afghanistan, the Iraq war, and Israel going batshit insane — all of this in one way or another is linked to the Bush Administration’s inability to deal with concrete reality and to meet it with anything but cowboy diplomacy.

If the Dear Leader’s response is to focus on a f***ing State barbecue, then it’s time for other international players to step into the void and start setting things right. Any of them would do — Britian, France, Germany, Russia, China — they all have a stake in the stability of the Middle East.

Good comments all around. Larry C Johnson (#3) said it all, from my point of view, and BC (#8) added lots of useful information. I just can’t bring myself to empathize with people fighting tribal battles which are fifty years old, centuries old, millennia old. Whatever we do, we can never crack that nut. Better to focus our efforts on positive, rational programs which we can launch in the here and now. Programs like bringing usable water to all of the region, for example. Programs of research which will one day make us wonder why we ever depended so much on oil. If that’s not good enough for some people, screw ’em … they can stew in their own juices. Hate never improved the world.

Of course, it doesn’t help that the Regal Moron is hopelessly incurious, that his advisers are personally power-mad and greedy, and that the Bush Crime Family is in all this up to its collective ~~asshole~~ frontal lobes.

We are watching a bad situation get worse due to the current administration and the pack of short term thinking corporations and ideological and fundamentalist psychos cheerleading on Bush’s inept diplomacy.

Many of us who were against OIF (Op Iraq Freedom) because we knew (intellectually and instinctively) that this was going to fan the flames of war in a place that did not need anymore heat. We warned those who supported this mess about the then possible consequences. I was told by one to stop being such a ChickenLittle cause everything will be all right. That person has since said little then as the cost of fuelling his SUV soared. I have to admit that I twist the proverbial knife and remind him of his “everything will be all right” remarks every time I hear him bitch about the rising cost of gas.

prm writes
“all of this in one way or another is linked to the Bush Administration’s inability to deal with concrete reality”

Add also a lethal mixture of plain ignorance, arrogance, gross stupidity at the diplomatic/strategic/tactical/doctrinal/economic levels, conservative dogma, revenge, religious prophesy and cowardice by the US MSM.

This has been an excellent grouping of links, comments and articles.

Israel’s attack of Lebanon will allow the real nasty people to come out of the woodwork and take charge of defending Lebanon. Hopefully Israel will back down before it’s to late.

What do you mean by “provocation”? There is no justification for ‘Israel’ to exist……. The name itself was taken from an organized society of Canaanaites (what are generically called Palestinians today) in the north of Palestine when the semi-nomadic tribesmen who later became the Hebrews/Jews were wandering completely unmorphed into cohesion in an area about a third of today’s West Bank.

There being no hisotic justification for the existence of Israel the US, its colonial master, should close it down.

The Palestinians own Palestine and the illegal immigrants should go home.

Russia is bigger than us, has more people, has much more oil, and has a much better education system. We are going to be scrabbling for our ocmmercial lives Very Soon. It is amazingly bad for business for us to have pissed off the owners of most of the rest of the oil reserves and to have alienated about a billion potential buyers of things American. It was the Democrats on the Left who used to be the one-eyed daft supporters of Israel and now it is our own Fundies on the Right.

Without our constantly having fed the suppurating boil which is Israel the Islamic fundamentalists would have remained a footnote.

What the hell did we expect? I learnt when a child not to shove a stick into a wasps’ nest, how is it that successive American politicians have not, on both sides.

If only Bush could be separated from AIPAC he might be persuaded that he really could achieve immortality by telling Israel the money not only stops tomorrow, but all the past loans are hereby called in. All we will do to soften the blow is to help all rthe illegals and descendants thereof to go back whence they came.

Mr. CB, Your reluctance to open the Middle East box is understandable. But your post today has prompted a great collection of info, observation and links. Not much cause for optimism but knowledge is power and there are plenty of pragmatic selections here for a meal at the Reality Based Cafe. Just leave that bowl of Tums out on the counter if you would.

Just to add another analysis to the pile Some Questions Regarding Israel’s Objectives: Is Israel Trying to Curb America’s Deal-Making in Middle East? by Steven C. Clemons.

After reading the articles by Clemons and Johnson, and the comments above I’m having the sinking feeling that my worst fears about the Middle East are coming to fruition.

FYI and off-topic today. From Yahoo News

Here’s the important sentence: “It had gone largely unnoticed until Republicans began objecting to it this week….” Our response? pull the ad. Yuck! I think we should do more of these and sucker the GOP into being our publicity agents.

—
Democrats pull ad with flag-draped coffins
By SEANNA ADCOX, Associated Press Writer Fri Jul 14, 8:45 PM ET

ROCK HILL, S.C. – Democrats pulled an Internet ad that showed flag-draped coffins Friday after Republicans and at least two Democrats demanded it be taken down on grounds the image was insensitive and not fit for a political commercial.

The ad by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee called for a “new direction” and displayed a staccato of images, including war scenes, pollution and breached levees as well as a photograph of former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay doctored to look like a police mug shot.

The campaign committee replaced the ad with a radio commercial that targets Rep. John Hostetler, R-Ind., for opposing an increase in the minimum wage. Democrats have made a minimum wage increase a central theme of this year’s election.

Democrats had featured the video ad for nearly two weeks on the DCCC Web site where it had gone largely unnoticed until Republicans began objecting to it this week. On Thursday, more than a dozen Republicans, many with military backgrounds, called on DCCC Chairman Rahm Emanuel, D-Ill., to apologize. Democratic Reps. John Spratt of South Carolina and Chet Edwards of Texas asked Emanuel to pull or alter the ad.

“We’re moving to another major effort that we’re highlighting on our Web site,” DCCC spokesman Bill Burton said.

In South Carolina, Spratt’s Republican challenger, state Rep. Ralph Norman, commended the removal. It was “the right thing to do for the state, country and especially the brave men and women who serve in our military,” said Norman’s spokesman, Nathan Hollifield.

It’s all so understandable, at one level; and all so unnecessary at another level. The problem is making the quantum leap from the one level to the other. Since this is something that cannot be injected or imposed from the outside, there’s little hope of positively influencing this kind of situation in the short term. Maybe there’s no hope of influencing renegade human nature in the long term either and aspiring to do so is vain. But everyone here and millions of others seem to have that wish — the wish to see something better.

It’s understandable because these situations, specifically this one in the Middle East with all its global entanglements, is an extension or amplification of emotions we are familiar with and experience almost daily. Someone breaks into our car and steals our radio and pretty soon we’re crazy. We would have little mercy on a thief if we caught one at that moment. Mostly, though, we’re just left with resentment that goes on burning for weeks. That’s anger.

Anger is a very common emotion, and has many forms and intensities. It is controllable though; and, better still, it is transmutable. The greatest warrior of all is the one who conquers his anger.

What we’re looking for, praying for, wishing for in our political leaders, governments, military commanders, diplomats are such warriors — human beings who have mastered these emotions, transcended and transmuted them into wisdom and power. That way the rest of us have a chance to live and develop our potentials in peace and security, and also in time take our share of responsibility.

When an aggression occurs, such as 9/11 or the Hizbollah attack, and there is a feeling of deprivation, violation, victimisation, and insult, the automatic and natural response is resentement, hatred, indignation and revenge. That’s very human at a basic level. It’s not ‘wrong’; it’s just limited. It’s okay on an individual level. But it is absolutely not okay at a collective level.

That’s where the quality of leadership comes in. The leader must find within himself another level of discipline and understanding more mature than those he is entrusted to protect. That’s where, these days, we seem to be falling short. That’s where those of us who have any influence or vision at all, any conscience, any single thought or dream of something better, must exert every ounce of our intelligence, ingenuity, discipline and effort to redress this terrible deficiency, repair and replenish this void, and vow never to let it get as bad as this ever again.

OTH, maybe it’s just a personal thing.

Frankly, the Israel/Lebanon/Hizbollah crisis is not one I would have predicted, but I should have considered it. Bush-bashing is easy, but I really believe the invasion and occupation of Iraq has seriously upset the balance of the Mideast.

With Iraq neutalized, Iran has become much more powerful and influentional than ever. With U.S. troops in Iraq, plus not even superficial U. S. attempts to appear impartial, Israel has a freer hand in the region, for better or worse.

In Arab eyes, the U.S./Israel closeness is as firm as the U. S./British alliance. If something is not done to immediately contain the violence, It could prompt greater participation for jihaad.

The U. S. has — or should have — a lot of clout in the region, certainly with the annual billions we give to Israel. But the Bushies have methodically gelded our State Department and made certain it stays that way by making Condi Rice Secretary of State. And like all Bush adventures, there has been no planning. The Bushies are incapable of recognizing that things don’t always turn out the way you expect them to.

We are, unfortunately, in the hands of George Bush (actually Dick Cheney, et. al.) Partisanship aside, that is a chilling reality.

Spiralling into chaos? The Mideast may be augering in.

“With Iraq neutalized, Iran has become much more powerful and influentional than ever. With U.S. troops in Iraq. . .”

I think there are a lot of possible endings for that sentence. you certainly hit on one. Another would be that Iran sees a situation where our ability to help Israel is limited political and logistically, and so it is a good time to turn Hezbollah loose. Yet another would be that if Iran, through Syria and other states and organizations, can spread the US ever thinner — sneak support (and suggestions) to the Taliban, Hamas, Hezbollah, maybe even Islamists in Somalia, heck maybe even N Korea — there will be less ability to keep the eye on the Iranian nuclear ball. Takes a little heat and light off of Tehran, by the time it swings back there way they’ve made a lot more progress.

As a number of commenters have said above, it is easy to find a lot of losers or potential losers in all that is happening in the Middle East and elsewhere, but it sure looks like there should be a lot of smiles in Tehran.

There were some very good and very informative posts here, thanks all that posted.
This is away from the topic of the middle east. Arizona is going to make everyone that votes in that state eligible to win a million dollars if they vote. Essentially, a lottery to go along with their election. The story is on the NYT webpage. I first assumed this is another Republiskunk election year trick to try to get more voters to turn out like putting gay marriage or abortion on a ballot to be voted on. I feel this one may backfire on the Replugs though if they are the source of the idea. Has anyone else noticed that all the spin and lies and attacks have ramped up since it was announced that Rasputin Rove won’t be indicted?

We’ll know after Labor Day, when they will or will not roll out the war on Iran using Hezbollah as a justification.

I wonder if George W. Bush will be remembered as the Gavrilo Princip of the 21st century?

I think an all-out regional war (much less a world war) is extremely unlikely. Apart from the Usual Suspects on the American Right (who don’t have the control over events they did when W’s poll numbers were north of 60%) such a war is not on anyone’s agenda. Israel has a plan (which probably won’t work, but one they seem determined to try having nothing else to hand) to remove the Hezbollah threat from their northern border, but there is no evidence that plan calls for a drive on Damascus. Israel As for Syria, it has no desire to take on the IDF directly. And Iran, which has been the winner in all of this (including our Iraq debacle) has no need to risk all its gains by pushing too far. Of course the possibility of blundering into a wider war exists, but I don’t see it as probable.

Which is to say the news is disastrous but not catastrophic. (unless you are an Israel hit by a rocket or an Arab hit by a bomb).

I notice that Talking Points Memo has a post up that pretty much cements my stated position at # 5.

To wit… here is a quote from DK, writing over at Josh’s place:

“Linking the brutal events of the recent past with the brutal events of today allows them [conservatives & republicans] to skip over the fact that real progress toward peace and stability in the region was made in the 1990s, in part due to U.S. leadership and diplomacy. In doing so, I suppose conservatives hope to obscure what a hash they have made of the Middle East in the last 5 years.”

Having read all the posts since #5…
And having read that TPM post…

I am going to challenge you folks to realize that perhaps some of you are simply mesmerized. That in fact Bush’s low bar of expectations has got you so hypnotized, that many of you are not be fully struck by this fact:

There is an exaceberating situation going on in the Middle East and the President of the United States is not out and about advocating “peace.”

Do you realize how sinister that is?

I mean really… only brutes and terrorists and sadists fail to realize that war solves absolutely nothing and only makes things worse.

A real world leader would be actively seeking solutions.
A real world leader would be out mediating for calmness.

And yet…
And yet…
This US President is mute and deaf and dumb.

So what is it?

Is Bush a terrorist?
A brute?
Or a sadist?
Or is he just simply overwhelmed by anything more complicated that the digital shifting on a Mountain bike?

Well one thing is certain:
HE IS NO WORLD LEADER.

We can certainly all bang the gavel on that…

There are disturbing parallels between what is going on in Lebanon
today and what was going on in Bosnia and Serbia in 1914.
We have a local conflict that could mushroom into a regional catastrophe
with just the right provocation.
We also have the brainless, insensitive leaders in charge today not unlike
Europe’s ruling class in l914.
We also have religious and ethnic issues that could inflame the present
crisis out of control.
And we have a corporate-controlled news media that will report only what
it wants to and not give truly balanced reporting.
It is not an exact parallel with l914 but there are too many similarities
to ignore.
Let’s hope July 2006 doesn’t become our July 1914.
And while we’re at it now would be a good time to re-read
Barbara Tuchman’s The Guns of August. In fact, a copy should be
sent to all the current leadership in our government and news organizations.
Santayana doesn’t have to be right this time. Let’s hope we are smart
enough to have gotten his message.

Since pig is unkosher to *both* Arabs and Jews, we may hope that Bush has not added any additional fuel to the flame with his most recent remarks.

koreyel – I don’t think mesmerized comes close to describing what I’m feeling about the ME right. I think scared shitless is more like it. The entire Bush presidency has been a surreal experience but the outcomes of this scenario don’t look very promising.

And I think anthony is dead on with his comparisons to Bosnia and Serbia in 1914, hence the reference to Gavrilo Princip.

What the heck, with all this gloom and doom I may go shopping just to experience the joys of our consumption driven society.

Open microphones may be the closest we come to open government with the BushCo. folks and fortunately there was one at a G8 dinner. What was heard should give us no comfort about Bush’s ability to manage the latest Middle East crisis.Here is Bush on the Israeli/Hezbollah situation.

Bush expressed his frustration with the
United Nations and his disgust with the militant Islamic group and its backers in Syria as he talked to British Prime Minister
Tony Blair during the closing lunch at the Group of Eight summit.

“See the irony is that what they need to do is get Syria to get Hezbollah to stop doing this s— and it’s over,” Bush told Blair as he chewed on a buttered roll.

He told Blair he felt like telling U.N. Secretary-General
Kofi Annan, who visited the gathered leaders, to get on the phone with Syrian President Bashar Assad to “make something happen.” He suggested Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice might visit the region soon.

This is what Bush means when he says that he is delegator. He means he wants others to do his job.

There are times when it comes to this issue when all I want to say is what Mercutio said:

A plague o’ both your houses!

I say…don’t poke some guy in the eye w/ a stick, and then expect me to feel sorry for you when he punches you back!! (Get a clue…Hezbolla, stay on your side of the fence and everything will be OK!)

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