Maybe I’m old fashioned, but I always thought the best way for a party to approach an election season is to win as many seats as humanly possible. If you’re in the minority, you’re aiming for the majority. If you’re in the majority, you’re aiming for a bigger majority. To want anything less is not only self-defeating, it’s illogical.
Or so I thought. Over the last week or so, with most political observers expecting control of Congress to be, at a minimum, up for grabs, there’s a growing murmur — from both sides — that perhaps maintaining a congressional majority in 2007 and 2008 isn’t all it’s cracked up to be.
As Matt Yglesias noted, for example, “more and more conservatives” are writing columns like Jonah Goldberg’s latest, about “how it might be better for the GOP to lose control of the House.” As Goldberg put it, “Conservative Republicans have learned a painful lesson over the last few years. It turns out power isn’t all it’s cracked up to be.”
[S]ome of us aren’t contemplating the possible, if not probable, Democratic takeover of the House with too much dread…. [T]he silver lining would be fairly thick. First, as a matter of simple gitchy-goo good government, one has to admit that the executive branch could use an independent audit. Amid the orgy of spending and deal cutting, the GOP-controlled House has largely abdicated its oversight responsibilities. Someone’s got to check the receipts.
Second, as a matter of rank partisanship, letting the Democrats run wild could be good for both the GOP and conservatives, as my colleague Ramesh Ponnuru recently pointed out in the New York Times. If you think Americans are itching for change now, wait until they break into hives after two more years of Republican monopoly on power.
But a Pelosi-run House could so horrify voters that it would probably prepare the soil for a Republican presidential candidate in 2008.
At first I thought columns like these were pre-election rationalizations. “It’s okay that we lost,” conservatives are saying seven weeks before the election, “because we didn’t really want the majority anymore anyway.”
But the more these arguments are made, the more they appear to be a sincere strategic assessment. As absurd as it may sound, it’s possible some in both parties are looking askance at majority status.
For Republicans, losing the House offers the GOP a new target — namely, the chamber the party has run since 1994. Using Dems as a scapegoat is tough when Dems don’t actually have any real power in Washington. A Democratic House would add substance to Republican whining.
Plus, as Goldberg noted, there’s 2008 to consider. Republican candidates know full well that, as a historical matter, it’s exceedingly difficult for a party to maintain control of the White House for three terms in a row. That task is made more difficult when one party runs the entire government for four election cycles in a row; voters start to feel a strong need for change; and you’re with the in-power party. A Democratic House offers a change in dynamic that could make it a little — not much, but a little — easier for a Republican presidential candidate to represent a voice of change in 2008.
And then, of course, there’s the Dems, who might feel a tinge of concern about taking back the House. Party leaders know full well that every measure passed by a Dem majority would be either a) blocked by a GOP senate; or b) vetoed by Bush. Partisan gridlock going into 2008 offers opponents a chance to say, “A Dem House was supposed to lead to change. Instead it led to more partisan bickering.”
Paul Waldman recently said, “[T]here’s something a little silly about saying that it’ll be good to lose this election because it’ll help us win the next one.” Quite right — there are ample benefits that come with power. Nevertheless, I’ve heard from more than a few Dems lately who think the party might be better off winning, say, 14 House seats and 5 Senate seats — enough to show major gains, and enough to make it easier to block the GOP agenda, but just short of a majority that might hurt the party’s goals in ’08.
Is there something to this, or is it ridiculous? Is there a reasonable strategic argument that not winning the majority is actually good news?