The polls will open on the east coast in less than 48 hours. We all have various hopes, fears, and expectations, but now it’s time to start making some predictions.
Three top political analysts have already weighed in.
Stuart Rothenberg says that Democrats are “most likely” to pick up 34 to 40 seats, “with slightly larger gains not impossible.” Rothenberg also says that he thinks “state and national dynamics” make it more likely than not that the Democrats will pick up the six seats they need to take control of the Senate.
Larry Sabato is up with a new set of “Crystal Ball” predictions, and he says he’s never seen a “stormier” outlook for anyone. Sabato is projecting that Democrats will pick up between 23 and 30 seats in the House, with his best guess being 27. But that’s not the worst of it for the GOP, he says. At this moment, Sabato says he doesn’t see “a single election for Senate, House or governor in which a Republican is likely to succeed a Democrat in office.” If that scenario holds, he says, it will be the first time since at least World War II that one of the two major parties has been so thoroughly shut out of electoral success.
Charlie Cook now says it would take a “miracle” for the Republicans to retain control of the House. Based on the latest polling data, Cook says the GOP is likely to lose between 20 and 35 seats in the House, but that a loss of more than 35 seats wouldn’t surprise him, either. “The vulnerable GOP seats are there, the wave is there, maybe it happens, maybe it doesn’t,” he says.
Now it’s your turn. Predict the net change for the House (for example, Dems +15) and the net change for the Senate (for example, Dems +4). For a tiebreaker, also predict the net change in gubernatorial races.
The person who does the best will win a free, autographed copy of “Chasing Ghosts,” written by Iraq and Afghanistan Veterans of America Director Paul Rieckhoff. (If a few people are tied, I’ll put the names of those who come closest in a hat and pick a winner.)
Ready, set, guess.