Supply-side economics becomes a ‘frequently misleading and meaningless buzzword’

Bruce Bartlett, author of “Impostor: How George W. Bush Bankrupted America and Betrayed the Reagan Legacy,” knows a bit about a supply-side economics — he helped invent it. About 30 years ago, he was the staff economist for then-Rep. Jack Kemp (R-N.Y.), and helped craft a tax plan that was premised on the idea that lower rates could paradoxically lead to more revenue.

That was then. Now, he’s looking around at Republicans bastardizing his principles and appears largely unimpressed. He’s seen supply-side economics “become a frequently misleading and meaningless buzzword that gets in the way of good economic policy.”

Today, supply-side economics has become associated with an obsession for cutting taxes under any and all circumstances. No longer do its advocates in Congress and elsewhere confine themselves to cutting marginal tax rates — the tax on each additional dollar earned — as the original supply-siders did. Rather, they support even the most gimmicky, economically dubious tax cuts with the same intensity.

The original supply-siders suggested that some tax cuts, under very special circumstances, might actually raise federal revenues…. But today it is common to hear tax cutters claim, implausibly, that all tax cuts raise revenue. Last year, President Bush said, “You cut taxes and the tax revenues increase.” Senator John McCain told National Review magazine last month that “tax cuts, starting with Kennedy, as we all know, increase revenues.” Last week, Steve Forbes endorsed Rudolph Giuliani for the White House, saying, “He’s seen the results of supply-side economics firsthand — higher revenues from lower taxes.”

This is a simplification of what supply-side economics was all about, and it threatens to undermine the enormous gains that have been made in economic theory and policy over the last 30 years. Perhaps the best way of preventing that from happening is to kill the phrase “supply-side economics” and give it a decent burial.

One can only hope Bartlett’s piece gets circulated a bit in DC, because every Republican in town has been getting this wrong. Over a brief span in early 2006, the President, Vice President, then-Senate Majority Leader, and then-House Majority Leader all said that all tax cuts pay for themselves. They don’t.

Kevin Drum summarized this nicely: “[Supply-side theory is] now little more than a ritual incantation uttered by the clueless for the benefit of the rabid. It’s time for conservatives to grow up and put away the fairy tales.”

And while they’re at it, the media can give them a hand.

Matt Yglesias noted in a TAP piece this week:

In case Rudy Giuliani’s penchant for cross-dressing had you doubting his conservative bona fides, doubt no more. “I regard myself as a supply-sider for sure,” he told Larry Kudlow on March 27. And just in case you weren’t clear that by “supply-sider” Giuliani meant “know-nothing fool and liar,” he clarified: “[I] watched Ronald Reagan do it and learned it, saw it work. Taxes get reduced, more revenue comes in.”

Taxes get reduced, more revenue comes in. That, to Giuliani, is what it means to be a supply-sider. And a supply-sider is what he proclaims himself to be.

Taxes get reduced, more revenue comes in. It’s a nice idea. Nice, but not true. What’s more, it’s known to be untrue. Reagan did try it, but it didn’t work.

Taxes get reduced, more revenue comes in. Again, this is something Republicans like to say — but it isn’t true, and people who follow politics closely all know it isn’t true. Elections, however, are decided by the broad mass of voters, the vast majority of whom don’t follow politics especially closely. For that, they turn to the professionals — the corps of campaign correspondents working for the country’s major newspapers and television networks.

These professionals do follow politics closely and use their years of experience in the field to write stories that provide meaningful information to their readers. Thus a person who doesn’t follow politics all that closely and reads an article about how Giuliani puts a debunked theory at the heart of his economic policy will come away newly in possession of that key piece of information. “Giuliani: Crank or Liar?” reads the headline, as the author explores whether Giuliani is deliberately misleading people or just too dumb to know the truth. That’s how the papers cover the story, because the papers are in the business of informing their readers about politics. It’s a no-brainer.

I kid, of course.

Of course.

This is a simplification of what supply-side economics was all about.

This begs the question: How do you over-simplify an oversimplification?

  • The smartest thing George I ever uttered was “voodoo economics.” It was downhill from there.

  • If you lower taxes to zero and the economy expands a millionfold, you will get zero revenue.

    If you raise taxes to 100%, everyone quits working (or CLAIMS to have stopped working, anyway) and revenue is 100% times zero.

    When I point this out to a person who swears tax cuts are always good, I usually get the ill informed blighter to at least question the bull he hears on talk radio daily. You REALLY need to simplify things to get past the slight simplification that won them over.

    The middle ground is where maximum tax revenue will be gained. Not that maximum taxes should be the goal at all times, but it seems prudent after Dubya has run up a tab of 9 trillion bucks of debt for us.

  • Here is Krugman’s take on Bartlet.

    Bruce Bartlett says this:

    “Among the beliefs held by the Keynesians of that era were these: budget deficits stimulate economic growth; the means by which the government raises revenue is essentially irrelevant economically; government spending and tax cuts affect the economy in exactly the same way through their impact on aggregate spending; personal savings is bad for economic growth; monetary policy is impotent; and inflation is caused by low unemployment, among other things.”

    Wow. You see, I was a grad student at MIT – the great Keynesian stronghold – in the 1970s, and this bears no resemblance to what was being taught.

    In fact, I still have my copy of Dornbusch-Fischer, Macroeconomics, the 1978 edition – and it doesn’t make any of those assertions. I’m particularly amazed by the “monetary policy is impotent” bit: no mainstream Keynesian in America believed that any time after, say, 1955. Dornbusch-Fischer is mainly *about* monetary policy, and how important it is.

    Let me suggest that good economic doctrines don’t have to be sold by misrepresenting what other doctrines say.

  • “Voodoo economics,” “voodoo social policies,” “voodoo foreign policy,” “voodoo war policy.” Republicans: the voodoo party.

    Further proof that there are two species of furless biped on the planet: homo sapiens and homo sap – guess which one the Republicans are?

  • Well, I believe that deficit spending also stimulates the economy which stimulates revenue growth. Now if we ever had a CONSERVATIVE administration, that cut taxes and spending, we might see whether supply side economics works and we get a surplus.

    Oh, I forgot, we have had one. It was called the Clinton Administration.

  • As I understand it, SSE was set up on the drawing board as a “show-me-then-get-the-break” model. Example—GM invests $250 million to perfect a “green” engine that’ll produce an 80 MPG highway and rolls the engine into mass production. They get a straight $250 million tax-cut, along with residual reductions to allow for further R&D on the concept. Example—a power-generating company drops a half-billion to retrofit their plants with nexgen scrubbers, and once everything’s online, they get the full break plus residual offsets to further fund R&D. The residual cuts compensate for the R&D being gutted in other areas to support a crash program in one area; typical R&D can cover twenty to thirty different area of concern at the same time.

    But the “model” was broken and patched back together in a bizarre, one-sided beast kind of way, by the Reagan administration. It they would have just run with the unbroken prototype idea, we probably wouldn’t be having these global-warming arguments today. But the mu-Reagan-hadeen “holy profit jihadists” broke the damned thing, and we’re dealing with a freakazoid environment now….

  • Alan Reynolds on humanevents.com, The Laffer Curve Renamed writes:

    ” grow weary of people telling me what supply-siders supposedly said, thought or wrote without bothering to actually quote anyone. No economist ever claimed that all taxes are so distortionary that increasing any tax rate would reduce revenue. Art Laffer never said that. Bob Mundell never said that. Larry Lindsey, Larry Kudlow, Craig Roberts, Steve Entin and Bruce Bartlett never said that. I never said that.”

    It’s shocking the amount of ignorance people have about supply-side economics, and it’s not much to go into here. However, if you’re interested, please see Voodoo Economics = Liberal Fantasies (or What Supply-Side Economists Really Said)

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