‘Support is continuing to erode’

December 8, 2006

At yesterday’s White House press conference with Tony Blair, the president used one phrase six times in reference to the war in Iraq: “the American people.” Bush kept referring to the electorate — the American people want Dems and Republicans to work together; the American people need to know we can’t quit in Iraq; the American people know that al Qaeda will not have safe haven in Iraq under the president’s strategy, and so on.

Mr. President, I hate to break it to you, but you’ve lost the American people.

Americans are overwhelmingly resigned to something less than clear-cut victory in Iraq and growing numbers doubt the country will achieve a stable, democratic government no matter how the U.S. gets out, according to an AP poll.

At the same time, dissatisfaction with President Bush’s handling of Iraq has climbed to an all-time high of 71 percent. The latest AP-Ipsos poll, taken as a bipartisan commission was releasing its recommendations for a new course in Iraq, found that just 27 percent of Americans approved of Bush’s handling of Iraq, down from his previous low of 31 percent in November.

“Support is continuing to erode and there’s no particular reason to think it can be turned back,” said John Mueller, an Ohio State University political scientist and author of “War, Presidents and Public Opinion.” Mueller said that once people “drop off the bandwagon, it’s unlikely they’ll say ‘I’m for it again.’ Once they’re off, they’re off.”

Keep in mind, the poll was conducted between Monday and Wednesday, which means the results don’t include Americans who heard the Iraq Study Group say that the Bush administration’s policy is “no longer viable.”

In other words, given the last couple of days of coverage, support for the war and the president’s handling of the crisis is probably slightly worse.

Even so, Americans are not necessarily intent on getting all U.S. troops out right away, the poll indicated. The survey found strong support for a two-year timetable if that’s what it took to get U.S. troops out. Seventy-one percent said they would favor a two-year timeline from now until sometime in 2008, but when people are asked instead about a six-month timeline for withdrawal that number drops to 60 percent.

OK, but let’s look at those results in a different way — three out of five Americans, a clear majority, want U.S. troops to be withdrawn on a six-month timeline. Based on the conventional wisdom, this is a fringe, radical approach to the war in Iraq, which just happens to enjoy the support of most Americans.

And as long as we’re on the subject, an even larger number of Americans disagree with the president’s policy on negotiations (or lack thereof) with Iran and Syria, including nearly three-in-four Republicans.

Congressional Dems have nothing to fear by taking Bush on over Iraq policy. He has no allies left.

“[Boy George II] has no allies left.”

Well, he lost Laura over Rumsfeld, so that leaves Barney, right?

Or do dogs leave their masters when they can smell the stink of failure?

Success in Iraq might be possible for a country with the population and resources of the United States. But actually presenting the costs to the American people in such a way they would approve the sacrifice is something far beyond BG2’s ability.

  • I am just a little sick of being right from the start and being called coward, traitor and worse for it. Nothing has happened in Iraq that anybody who was paying attention could not have predicted accurately. The only thing that I missed was that Bush would also abandon Afghanistan to the Taliban and let bin Laden go free.

    Hillary Clinton supported this war from the start and was carefully sitting on the fence as late as last month. That is why I will never, NEVER vote for her. It is also why I have voted for a Republican in the last two congressional elections. In case y’all haven’t noticed, peoples’ kids are dieing while the politicians position themselves.

  • It is also why I have voted for a Republican in the last two congressional elections. In case y’all haven’t noticed, peoples’ kids are dieing while the politicians position themselves. And this is why you voted republican? Hows that working out for you?

  • In 2002 after Powell’s UN speech make me sure the country was hooked (line and sinker), I predicted two outcomes for Iraq: 1) the vaccuum left after Saddam would be taken by a different strong man dictator, this time even less friendly to the US or 2) the counrty would descend into civil war with secterian/religious overtones. I’m also sick of being right, and of apparently understanding more than the guys ruling the country. The ISG report will change nothing because Bush is deaf to anything that doesn’t fit his neat good/evil picture of the world.

  • Last time I saw, Bush’s “credibility” numbers were tanking big time. Dems really should point that out at every opportunity, because then the remaining koolaid drinkers will get increasingly nervous and jump ship. But more importantly, it defuses the Bush argument, no matter what it is that day. He simply has no credibility, so the best thing he can do is shut the hell up and let the grownups clean up his mess.

    And since the Bushies have now been caught red-handed covering up the true level of violence, we will likely be able to see even more violence (thus speeding up the erosion of war support).

    I think the argument back in the 60’s and 70’s that Vietnam would cause a domino event, and thus increase the risk from the communists, was a lot more salient back then than Bush’s argument that Iraq will somehow increase terrorism if we leave. If for no other reason, because the Vietnam dominoes turned out to be ficticious, and because people understand that even if Bush’s plan worked it wouldn’t stop small groups of terrorists.

    So without Bush’s bogeyman I think support will be near zero pretty soon.

  • an even larger number of Americans disagree with the president’s policy on negotiations (or lack thereof) with Iran and Syria, including nearly three-in-four Republicans.

    That’s a common phenomenon, that Republicans agree with politicians’ agena until they learn what that is.

    Republicans trust Republican statesmen to handle things, until they learn how they’re handling things.

    It just goes to show—

  • I generaly vote in Republican primaries. The reason is,if you don’t,you have any say where I live in local politics. On the other hand I seldom vote for democrats. The last election is an exception. As I remember it,one hundred fourty seven voted no to go to war in a house of four hundred thiry five. I don’t see either party as being much diffrent. These leaders regardless of party have lead us to the precipice we now encounter. We have the Patriot Act,torture ,illegal rendition,warntless wire tapping,plus who knows what else.Jose Padilla is a case in point. Declared an enemy combatant by one man (the pres of the good ole USA). Incarcerated in solitary for three years with no ability to file a writ of Habeas Corpus. This is a United States citizen with rights. (Yea right). The government now sends him to Miami federal court with none of the original charges. They refuse to let define his treatment in court. (national security) He dosen’t trust his defence lawyers.(Thinks theye are a ploy by the prosecution). Some how my country has left me and I don’t trust either side. I read these blogs but I don’t find any solace in them. I think it is time to send all of them back to their original occupations.

  • I lke how the AP’s Nancy Benac (or maybe her editor) was still trying to spin the disastrous fall in support for The Very Bad Idea…

    Americans are not necessarily intent on getting all U.S. troops out right away, the poll indicated. The survey found strong support for a two-year timetable if that’s what it took to get U.S. troops out. Seventy-one percent said they would favor a two-year timeline from now until sometime in 2008, but when people are asked instead about a six-month timeline for withdrawal that number drops to 60 percent.

    Well over half of Americans want them out in six months, you jerks. And that’s today’s poll. Do you think support for a longer stay is going to go up?

    Nobody wants their kid to be there. A clear and rapidly growing majority wants them out NOW. Six months from now it will be 70%.

    But of course even then, not every American will “necessarily” be “intent” on getting “all U.S. troops out right away”. No, Nancy Benac, we will still have some idiots who will want other people’s kids to stay and fight a little longer for The Very Bad Idea:

    http://www.workingforchange.com/printitem.cfm?itemid=19757

    I wish I knew how to imbed links into text, could someone explain how that’s done?

  • “Mueller said that once people “drop off the bandwagon, it’s unlikely they’ll say ‘I’m for it again.’ Once they’re off, they’re off.”

    I’m not so sure I’d make that blanket statement, if that’s what Meuller meant it to be. IF the violence in Iraq were to subside, I believe Americans would rather stay until the country was stable than leave. Basically, Americans don’t like to lose, so staying to ensure stability would be seen as accomplishing a goal. What has soured them is the lack of progress — or negative progress — with no plan to turn it around. Personally, I’d rate the chances of violence subsiding less than that of the proverbial snowball in hell, but IF that were to happen, I wouldn’t doubt the public mood would shift.

  • “Why, oh why can’t the American people be more centrist and bipartisan? Their radical “cut-and-run” desire to be out in 6 months is so far outside the mainstream!”

    Talk about media bias! A greater percentage of people want out of Iraq in 6 months than ever voted for George W. Bush, and that isn’t the headline on the article? Three out of five are in favor of a quick withdrawal, and that’s portrayed as “not necessarily intent on getting all US troops out right away?”

    This is not journalism.

  • Rick ~ Racerx

    I live in a solidly gerrymandered Democratic Congressional District. I have a congressman who used to organize municipal workers in shirtsleeves and now wears $1,500 suits, has lacquered fingernails and doesn’t shave himself – the barber does it for him. He backed Bush on the war well into ’05 and supported the Patriot Act. He badly needs replacing. In ’04 I would have been happy to see him lose – to anybody. I honestly don’t know how I would have voted in ’06 if I thought there was a real chance of him losing.

  • “It’s only a matter of time before “One man, with Jesus, is a majority” becomes the party line.” – DXM

    I really think Boy George II has lost the Mandate of Heaven. If we weren’t in a constitutional system where we have a (reasonable) expectation that he will be gone in two years, one month and twelve days, I rather think something more drastic would happen.

    On the other hand, he is building those detention (concentration) camps in Arizona for the Department of Homeland Security.

  • I have trouble with an Iraq exit timetable of any kind. If a timetable were possible, I’d vote to get out right now. But I’m just not so sure, practically speaking, that we even have much choice in the matter. This is because, as I’ve said several times, I think Bush got us stuck in hole so complicated and dangerous that our options are limited.

    Sure, we can just leave. But the pie-in-the-sky notion of a competent and reliable Iraqi security force EVER becoming a reality is nuts. To borrow a hackneyed movie line, this thing is a lot bigger than just Iraq. It is a hell of a geopolitical problem. Laymen like me — and Condi Rice — can gawp at the mini-crisis du jour, but our misadventure simply is not isolated to Iraq. Or Iran, Syria and Israel. The rest of the world is watching, and some if it is ready to eat us alive in the global marketplace while we throw the equivalent of hundreds of college tuitions down a rat hole.

    Quagmire doesn’t describe it for me. You can stumble into a quagmire. Picking a fight with a tarbaby is a choice.

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