Rick “Man on Dog” Santorum has big plans for the next couple of years. In 2006, he’ll be up for re-election, which he expects to win, and return to try and replace Bill Frist as the Senate Majority Leader. Two years later, Santorum is openly discussing the possibility of running for president.
All the more reason, therefore, to take a closer look at the re-election campaign that could end Santorum’s career.
The Wall Street Journal noted today that the DSCC is beginning to focus attention on the Pennsylvania race as a key pick-up opportunity in the next cycle. If Santorum, hailing from one of the nation’s biggest states, is so strong that he can prepare for a White House run, why would Dems target his seat? Because he really isn’t that strong.
Polls — Over the summer, two Quinnipiac polls pegged Santorum’s approval rating in the low 50s. For a well-known, two-term incumbent and would-be presidential candidate, that’s pretty weak statewide support.
Money — Santorum’s campaign war chest is not exactly overflowing. As of now, he has about $1.4 million cash on hand. Again, for a two-term senator from a huge state, that’s not exactly the kind of money total that will scare away potential rivals. (In contrast, Vermont’s Jim Jeffords $2 million on hand for the same cycle, despite not belonging to a political party and coming from a state that is one-twethieth the size of Pennsylvania.)
Opponents — In 2000, Dems saw Santorum as a potentially vulnerable incumbent (he’d won election six years prior with just 49% of the vote) and nominated Ron Klink, an uninspiring hyper-moderate. In 2006, Santorum is likely to have work a lot harder. Joe Hoeffel, who ran a credible race against Arlen Specter, is already considering a challenge to Santorum.
Just as importantly, state Treasurer Barbara Hafer, who left the GOP to become a Dem a year ago this week, is also considering the race. To be sure, as a pro-choice moderate who describes herself as “fiscally conservative and socially progressive,” she’d make a strong candidate.
Hafer also has a compelling personal narrative: before entering politics, she was a registered nurse who became interested in fiscal policy after seeing the misuse of public health funds as a health-care administrator.
Down by five seats, Dems will find it tough to take back the Senate in 2006. But if we could end Santorum’s career, it’ll be a great cycle anyway.