In 1982, Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley (D) appeared to be well on his way to winning California’s gubernatorial race. Polls showed him with a big lead … and then the results came in and Bradley came up just short. Some political scientists created a label for the new-found problem — the “Bradley Effect” — which described the phenomenon of white voters claiming to support a nonwhite candidate when they actually don’t.
It’s happened more than once. In 1990, Harvey Gantt (D) was beating Sen. Jesse Helms (R) in all the polls, but lost. In 1989, Doug Wilder was Virginia’s gubernatorial race by half a percentage point, even though he had a 10-point lead in exit polls.
In light of recent polls in Tennessee showing Rep. Harold Ford (D), who is African American, neck-and-neck with Bob Corker (R) in the state’s open U.S. Senate race, is it possible white voters are lying to pollsters about supporting a non-white candidate? The Wall Street Journal raised the question today.
Polls have often shown African-American candidates scoring well in the polls only to fail to clinch the election. […]
Some political scientists and strategists refer to it as the “15% lie” — when whites, bowing to societal pressure, tell pollsters they intend to vote for a black candidate but fail to do so in the voting booths. Indeed, several political experts believe that despite Mr. Ford’s strong showing in the polls, some whites may desert him at the last minute. “We’ll get the non-surprise surprise when Ford doesn’t get the vote,” says Thomas F. Schaller, an associate professor of political science at the University of Maryland and author of a new book, “Whistling Past Dixie,” which argues that most of the South is beyond Democrats’ reach.
I think 15% sounds extremely high, but as Kevin Drum noted, “[I]n a close election, even 2-3% is more than enough.”
I should note that not everyone agrees that the phenomenon remains a problem.
Other political observers think the effect may have diminished over time. “We may be seeing the turning of this,” says Ed Sarpolus, vice president of EPIC-MRA, a Michigan-based polling firm.
In the years since Bradley’s unexpected loss, a number of blacks have won statewide office. Acceptance of such candidacies has risen as both the electorate and black candidates have changed. “There would not have been a candidate like Harold Ford in the old days,” says David Bositis of the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies.
Since entering Congress barely into manhood, Ford “has prepared himself for this day and this period,” says Congressman Jesse Jackson Jr. Ford talks the language of rural gun owners and social conservatives and prides himself on being able to relate to the good ole boys. He also may benefit from the fact that 2006 seems to be shaping up as a Democratic year.
Maybe Ford is the kind of African-American Dem that can draw just enough support from whites in Tennessee that he can win in two weeks. Maybe the number of white voters willing to lie to pollsters is inconsequentially small. And maybe racism — sometimes subtle, sometimes overt — is behind us and it won’t have the effect we’ve seen too many times before.
But I’d feel a lot more confident if the RNC didn’t seem to be bringing back its “Southern Strategy.”