I’ve seen the latest national poll from Newsweek about the Dem presidential field, but I find it pretty hard to believe.
According to this survey, conducted late last week, only two candidates are in double digits. And you won’t believe who’s tied for third place. (margin of error +/-6%)
Dean — 26% (up from 24%)
Clark — 15% (up from 12%)
Sharpton — 7 % (up from 5%)
Lieberman — 7% (down from 12%)
Kerry — 6% (up from 5%)
Gephardt — 5% (down from 10%)
Edwards — 5% (no change)
Braun — 1% (down from 3%)
Kucinich — 1% (down from 2%)
Many aspects of this poll are easy to believe. Dean is probably leading the pack by a fairly comfortable margin. Clark probably has a comfortable grip on second place nationwide. Dean apparently isn’t suffering at all as a result of saying that the U.S. isn’t safer as a result of Saddam Hussein’s capture. All of this makes sense to me.
But Sharpton is polling ahead of Kerry, Gephardt, and Edwards? That just can’t be. Lieberman and Gephardt’s support has dropped from double digits to the mid-single digits in just a week? There’s just no reason for that. Even Dean’s endorsement from Gore shouldn’t drive Lieberman down this fast.
Of course, the margin of error is +/-6%, which is very high, suggesting that the poll isn’t particularly reliable. Nevertheless, it has to be a little discouraging for Kerry, Gephardt, and Edwards to have Newsweek report that all of them are behind Sharpton. I don’t believe that the poll is accurate, but the results can’t be good for campaign morale.
And in case you’re interested, the same poll showed Bush’s approval rating up to 54% (up from 51%), which is a pretty small bump in the first Newsweek poll conducted after the arrest of Saddam Hussein. Bush continues to enjoy wide leads over all the top Dem candidates, leading Gephardt by 16 points (54-38), Dean by 13 points (53-40), and Clark by 12 points (53-41).