The Carpetbagger Report’s Democratic Candidate Rankings

As I promised a couple of weeks ago, I’m starting a new feature today. Between now and the thick of the Democratic primaries in 2004, on the first of every month, I’m going to release my own subjective rankings as to where the Democratic presidential candidates stand against one another.

One of my favorite bloggers, Daily Kos, releases his own list about every other week, which he cleverly refers to as the “cattle call,” and Chuck Todd, an election analyst for the National Journal, produces his rankings about once a month. With this in mind, I’ll let you guys know where I think the candidates belong, plus where dKos and Todd put them. (There are minor differences between the three.)

1. John Kerry — The Massachusetts Senator doesn’t lead in a single national poll, but he remains the front-runner. Kerry leads all candidates in cash-on-hand, he’s got the most experienced and well-connected staff, he’s going to win in New Hampshire, and several party leaders are quietly coalescing around his candidacy. Perhaps most importantly, Kerry is a decorated war hero while none of his challengers served in the military. (Chuck Todd and dKos also rank Kerry first.)

2. Dick Gephardt — Though I continue to believe Gephardt’s candidacy will fade, he’s firing on all cylinders right now. His Q1 fundraising was sub-par, but his camp spun it pretty well. Gephardt is leading in early polling in Iowa, where he won in 1988. His national health care proposal generated astonishingly good media attention, making Gephardt look like a grown-up while Kerry and Dean bickered. (Chuck Todd puts Gephardt third, while dKos puts him second.)

3. John Edwards — Edwards shocked the establishment with incredible Q1 fundraising, catapulting him in insider credibility. There are some lingering questions about some of the donations, but the controversy is hanging around some of his contributors, not Edwards or the campaign directly. He’s still a fresh face for a lot of voters uninspired by Kerry and Gephardt, though poor name recognition is hurting him in national polls. Edwards Achilles heel: inexperience. By Election Day 2004, he’ll have only been in government six years, but that’s the exact same number of years Bush had in government as of the 2000 race. (Chuck Todd ranks Edwards second, dKos puts him fourth.)

4. Howard Dean — He’s obviously irritating the life out of all the other candidates, but Dean still has an activist base the other guys would kill for. Dean doesn’t lose points for being aggressive towards other Dem rivals, he loses points for being aggressive and wrong. He’s polling really well in New Hampshire, which neighbors his home state of Vermont, but polling poorly everywhere else. Oh, and it’d be great if he stopped saying dumb things about foreign policy, too. (Chuck Todd puts Dean fourth, dKos puts ranks him third.)

5. Joe Lieberman — Lieberman leads in national polls, but only because he’s the only Democrat with near 100% name recognition, thanks to being Gore’s running mate in 2000. Q1 fundraising was supposed to be higher for him, but it’ll probably be stronger in Q2. I just can’t see Lieberman winning; he’s just too politically conservative for Democratic primary voters. (Chuck Todd and dKos also rank Lieberman fifth.)

6. Bob Graham — The last of the real candidates. Graham is off to a slow start, due in large part to the heart surgery and recovery time from earlier this year. He looked good on ABC’s This Week with George Stephanopolous a few days ago, but still needs some media polishing. Graham’s candidacy looked good when he picked up some impressive campaign staffers, but looked worse after reporting low fundraising and poor national polling. The fact remains, if Graham weren’t from Florida, he wouldn’t be considered a serious candidate, which says more about the state than the campaign. (Chuck Todd and dKos also rank Graham sixth.)

7. Al Sharpton — Sharpton is clearly on an ego trip and is apparently enjoying the presidential race more than any other candidate. That said, he’s the most entertaining of all the candidates in the “third tier” — the three candidates who have no chance of winning. Sharpton is no fool, he knows he won’t be the Democratic nominee, but this liberates him to say whatever comes to his mind, and most of the time, the things that come to his mind are hilarious shots at Bush and the GOP. (Chuck Todd doesn’t believe in ranking any of the candidates under #6, while dKos agrees with me and puts Sharpton seventh.)

8. Dennis Kucinich — The oddest Democrat in the race, no one can figure out why he’s even running. Kucinich is the most unapologetically liberal of the candidates, but not in a charming Paul Wellstone way, more like an annoying Michael Moore, but without the charisma. No money, no staff, no polling, no chance. (dKos also ranks what’s-his-name number eight.)

9. Carol Mosley Braun — If she stopped campaigning tomorrow, I don’t think anyone would notice. (dKos agrees, concluding, “She made her point, whatever that might’ve been.”)