It’s the beginning of the month and once again I’m releasing my own subjective rankings as to where the Democratic presidential candidates stand against one another.
The rankings are my impression as to where the candidates stand as of today, though not necessarily where I think they’ll end up or even where I’d prefer to see them. As I did last month, I’ll also mention the similar rankings from Daily Kos, who releases his own list fairly regularly, and the standings from Chuck Todd, an election analyst for the National Journal.
1. John Kerry (last month: 1) — Kerry’s still the front-runner, despite not leading in a single national poll. He was uninspiring in the South Carolina debate in early May, but I think he’s learned from some of those mistakes and has grown more focused in recent weeks. Best of all, he’s stopped carping at Dean. Kerry delivered a terrific and well-received speech on patriotism and public service two weeks ago, and I continue to believe his status as a decorated war hero could be the difference in this campaign. As Kerry told the Washington Post a week ago, “If the president is going to wear a flight suit on deck, I have one to match, so to speak.” (Chuck Todd ranks Kerry first, Daily Kos puts him second)
2. Dick Gephardt (last month: 2) — Gephardt has done nearly everything right so far, but I still don’t see him getting the nomination. Nevertheless, he’s done a great job positioning himself on the issues — particularly health care — and he’s polling well in Iowa, where he won the 1988 caucus. He’s taken a little flap for missing so many votes in the House of late, but that won’t affect the campaign. (Todd puts Gephardt second, Daily Kos ranks him first)
3. John Edwards (last month: 3) — It’s hard to know what to think about the Edwards campaign. On the one hand he’s a smart, young Senator from the South with a good staff, lots of money, and compelling story line. Perhaps most importantly, it looks like Republicans are afraid of him. On the other hand, he can’t seem to break through in Iowa, New Hampshire, or any national poll, he’s not even looking that strong in his home state of North Carolina, and his complaints about Gephardt’s health care plan don’t make a lot of sense. I keep thinking he’ll get more popular as the campaign swings forward. Edwards had a pretty good May, particularly in the media, with a persuasive op-ed in the Washington Post on medical malpractice reform and a strong speech on improving the rural economy, which appears to be an issue Edwards can truly call his own. (Todd ranks Edwards tied for second, Daily Kos puts him sixth)
4. Bob Graham (last month: 6) — What are we going to do with our friend Bob? Great resume, impressive record, important state background, lackluster candidate. Graham, to his credit, has seized an important national issue as his own — the Bush administration’s secrecy surrounding national defense. Declassifying the 9/11 report, for example, has given Graham’s campaign purpose and direction. There’s a simmering controversy about his ties to the sugar industry in Florida, but I don’t see this going anywhere. (Todd ranks Graham sixth, Daily Kos has him fifth)
5. Howard Dean (last month: 4) — I was going to put the good doctor fourth, but he keeps annoying me by carping about his competitors within the Democratic Party. I mean really, doc, let it go. He went a good two weeks without whining about Kerry, but couldn’t contain himself and started it up again over the weekend. The truly low point for Dean in May was in a speech to AFSCME on May 20 when he continued his ongoing feud with the DLC. “Last time I looked, 15 AFSCME members died at the World Trade Center, I didn’t see any of the staff of the DLC at the World Trade Center,” Dean said. Not only does this come across as pathetic, it sounds like Dean is trying to exploit 9/11 almost as much as Bush does. Nevertheless, Dean’s press is starting to improve again after a bit of a dry spell and he continues to have an online activist base the other candidates would kill for. (Todd puts Dean fourth, Daily Kos has him third)
6. Joe Lieberman (last month: 5) — Still don’t like the guy, but still not prepared to write him off. Lieberman’s picked up a couple of big endorsements and he had a rewarding trip to Silicon Valley last week. One potential problem: Jon Stewart, on Comedy Central’s Daily Show, mentions Lieberman almost every day as being identical to Bush. As Stewart as put it on multiple occasions, “Lieberman is perfect for those who want to vote for Bush, but don’t think he’s Jewish enough.” (Todd ranks Lieberman fifth, Daily Kos puts him fourth)
7. Al Sharpton (last month: 7) — I’m actually finding myself glad that he’s in the race. He may be nuts, but he’s saying the kinds of things other Dem candidates think but are afraid to say. Remember that “drink the Cool Aid” line from the South Carolina debate? Classic. (Todd doesn’t believe in ranking any of the candidates under #6, while Daily Kos agrees with me and puts Sharpton seventh.)
8. Carol Mosley Braun (last month: 9) — Braun’s tarnished reputation from her days in the Senate is almost completely rehabilitated. She doesn’t have a chance of winning the nomination, and she hardly has a campaign apparatus to speak of, but people tend to like her when they see her. Braun did very well in the South Carolina debate, coming across as warm and genuine. She gets bonus points from me for mentioning in her stump speech that Bush came in second in 2000. (Daily Kos also ranks Braun eighth)
9. Dennis Kucinich (last month: 8) — Sure, he’s a joke who has no business running for president. But Chuck Todd raised an interesting point last week when he noted that Kucinich and Dean are appealing to the same kinds of voters. When Kucinich jumped into the race, many believed this could help Dean by making him appear more moderate against the nutty Kucinich. Todd, however, argues Kucinich is beginning to make inroads in Iowa and “every liberal/progressive vote Kucinich gets in Iowa is one less vote for Dean.” (Daily Kos also ranks Kucinich ninth)