The Carpetbagger Report’s Democratic Candidate Rankings — Part III

It’s the beginning of the month and so we return, once again, to my completely subjective rankings for the Democrats running for president. I was going to do this yesterday, but I waited another day to get more fundraising info for the second quarter.

As always, these rankings are my impression on where the candidates stand as of today, though not necessarily where I think they’ll end up a year from now or even where I’d prefer to see them.

1. John Kerry (last month: 1) — Kerry still strikes me as the guy with the best staff, the most money, the best record, and the best chance of beating Bush in 2004. His fundraising was solid in Q2 with $5 million to add to the $7 million he collected in Q1, putting him first among all candidates when it comes to “cash on hand.” Kerry’s anti-Bush rhetoric appears to have become more aggressive, which I think is a good thing. He also benefited from having a largely-flattering series run in the Boston Globe.

2. Howard Dean (last month: 5) — I’m completely convinced Dean would lose in a landslide to Bush, but the guy is obviously on fire. In all, it was a weird month for the good doctor. On the one hand, he embarrassed himself on Meet the Press, he had to apologize — again — for disparaging one of his Dem rivals, he was shown to be completely inconsistent on the death penalty, and his big foreign-policy speech to the Council on Foreign Relations was widely panned. On the other hand, he’s shocked the political establishment with $7.5 million in fundraising in Q2, his cult of personality grows by the hour, and he easily won on the MoveOn primary. He is now officially the candidate that all the others fear (except for Bush, who would no doubt love to face Dean in the general election).

3. Dick Gephardt (last month: 2) — Steady and solid. Nothing exciting happening with Gephardt, just steady growth and increased support from labor unions. He appears to have solidified his support in Iowa, which is good because anything short of a 1st place finish means he’s a goner. Gephardt also had a strong quarter for fundraising with around $5 mil coming in. I maintain, however, that Dick Gephardt will not be the Democratic nominee.

4. John Edwards (last month: 3) — Why can’t Edwards break through? He gave an exceptionally good speech about tax policy in mid-June, which was very well received, but didn’t generate the attention it deserved. Edwards had another strong fundraising quarter, taking in about $5 mil in Q2, putting him near with the top with Kerry for year-to-date totals, but has been overshadowed by Dean. His ever-growing war chest could be important later, and Edwards surely believes he’ll be making a move once he starts spending some of that cash. I guess it’s a “tortoise and the hare” strategy in which Edwards lets Dean generate all the hype over the summer while Edwards makes a strong push in the fall/winter. I just hope, for his sake, it isn’t too late.

5. Bob Graham (last month: 4) — Graham just doesn’t seem to stand a chance. He’s hitting Bush with everything he’s got, and he’s taken almost complete control over the national security criticisms of the administration, but Graham can’t find a support base. Dems looking for an aggressive bomb-thrower are moving to Dean, Dems looking for electability are moving to Kerry, and Dems looking for a Southerner are going to Edwards. Graham had a sub-par Q2 fundraising tally, with under $3 million coming in, and almost all of the money he did get came from Florida. The good news is the press has stopped talking about the notebooks, but that’s little consolation for a campaign that doesn’t appear to be going anywhere. I’m hoping he drops out and keeps his Senate seat for another 30 years.

6. Joe Lieberman (last month: 6) — Lieberman needed a strong Q2 fundraising report to show his viability and he didn’t get it — he collected about $4 million. He’s way back in the polls in Iowa and New Hampshire, and no one at the national level or the grassroots is gravitating to his campaign. It’s a little bizarre that Lieberman continues to lead in national polls, but that’s based almost entirely on name recognition from 2000, not a real base of support. Unless the Q3 report is fantastic, the pressure on Lieberman to drop out will be intense.

7. Dennis Kucinich (last month: 9) — Don’t look now, but the Kucinich machine is starting to pick up. Sarcasm? A little, but the fact remains that June was a very good month for the quirky House long shot. Kucinich is beginning to generate a genuine and committed following of liberal activists, as evidenced by his strong second place finish in the MoveOn primary. Kucinich even raised about $1 million in Q2, believe it or not, which is about $1 million more than he raised in Q1. Who knew?

8 & 9. Carol Mosley Braun (last month: 8) and Al Sharpton (last month: 7) — I can’t decide which to place on the bottom, so let’s call it a tie. Braun had one high profile event in June, a Meet the Press interview in which Russert made her look pretty bad. She will probably drop out in the fall. Sharpton’s strength is his ability to shine at forums and debates, but there weren’t any big events in June like the South Carolina debate from May. Neither Braun nor Sharpton have any staff or campaign organization to speak of and they won’t be able to compete seriously anywhere.

The “tiers” seem more solidified to me this month than in previous months, with Kerry, Dean, and Gephardt making up the top tier based on their poll numbers, base of support, and fundraising.

And as long as we’re mentioning second quarter fundraising, I’d like to add that Bush took in over $34 million in Q2 — all of which was raised in about six weeks. Bush is the most prolific political fundraiser of my lifetime; no one else comes close. Money won’t guarantee victory — Bush did outraise Gore by a lot and he still managed to lose the popular vote — but it does demonstrate the Dems’ need for a candidate who can compete financially.