It’s the first of the month, so we return, as we do every month at this time, to my completely subjective rankings for the Democrats running for president.
As always, these rankings are my impression on where the candidates stand as of today, though not necessarily where I think they’ll end up a year from now or even where I’d prefer to see them.
1a. John Kerry (last month: 1) — It’s tempting to drop Kerry to the number 2 slot, but he hasn’t done anything to merit the demotion. In fact, as the party continues to tear itself apart over Howard Dean, many — if not most — of the party establishment seems to believe that Kerry is the guy who can keep it all together. As I mention every month, he’s still got the best staff, the best record, and the most money. He’s also getting more aggressive online — good move — and the “win a day of campaigning with John Kerry” contest is cheesy but fun.
1b. Howard Dean (last month: 2) — I really was going to reluctantly put the good doctor at number 1, but he spent the week sniping at his Dem rivals again so I’m giving him the “1b” slot. Also, as a substantive matter, I thought his calling for George Tenet’s resignation made absolutely no sense. There can be little doubt that Dean is the story of the cycle thus far, and his fundraising base and cult of personality makes him a near-frontrunner for the nomination. However, most of the last couple of months has seen the “Is Dean electable” debate rage on interminably. Regardless of which is side is right, the fact that the debate has been ongoing in such a high profile way is bad news for the campaign — it reinforces the fear that nominating Dean so he can lose to Bush is a mistake.
3. Dick Gephardt (last month: 3) — Gephardt is doing exactly what he wants to do: shore up Labor’s support. Picking up the Teamsters’ endorsement is a big victory for him, as was, to a lesser extent, the nod from the International Alliance of Theatrical Stage Employees. Polls still show him leading in Iowa, where he’ll have to win if he has any chance at all of getting the nomination.
4. John Edwards (last month: 4) — I keep wondering when Edwards will make his move and start generating some buzz. I think the answer is: when he starts spending some money. He’s raised more this year than everyone except Kerry and when his ads hit the airwaves, Edwards is counting on a big bump in the polls. In the meantime, I really like the policy-driven work Edwards has been doing, despite the fact that it hasn’t received a lot of press. His health care proposal is a workable incremental approach based on insuring kids, his corporate responsibility proposal was bold, and his proposal to alleviate a national nursing shortage showed excellent outside-the-box thinking. Meanwhile, he’s not generating the excitement he did a year ago and his poll numbers are anemic. There will come a point in the early-fall when he’ll have to make up his mind: keep running for president or drop out and run for re-election as a senator.
5. Joe Lieberman (last month: 6) — Lieberman’s fundraising expectations game backfired in early-July, but his finances are in better-than-expected shape. He’s emphasizing “Joe’s Jobs Tour” on the campaign trail, which strikes me as a very good idea in light of nagging unemployment nationwide. If he can make unemployment his signature issue instead of being the Dems’ biggest hawk, it’ll do wonders for his prospects. Lieberman, for whatever reason, continues to lead in national polls, and is polling surprisingly well in South Carolina of all places. If Lieberman could pull out a victory in S.C. shortly after the New Hampshire primary, it would knock Edwards out of the race and give him real momentum going into states such as Arizona, where Lieberman is also polling well. (This being said, I still don’t like him.)
6. Bob Graham (last month: 5) — When Congress’ 9/11 report was released, it gave Graham a chance to shine on his number one issue. Instead, he got embroiled into a silly debate about whether or not Bush should be impeached (a debate he accidentally started). His appearance on Meet the Press a few weeks ago wasn’t bad, but didn’t win him any converts either. The truth is, I genuinely like and respect Graham, but his fundraising is poor, his poll numbers are awful, and he will not be the Dem nominee.
7. Dennis Kucinich (last month: 7) — Kucinich has developed a small but devoted following, which I frankly never thought would happen. Better yet, some Greens have suggested they’d vote Dem if Kucinich got the nomination. Of course, that’s not going to happen. Meanwhile, he has picked up one important supporter — Willie Nelson!
8. Al Sharpton (last month: tied for 9) — He’s had a fairly slow month, but he appeared on Crossfire recently and irritated Tucker Carlson, so for that reason alone, I’m bumping him up to number 8.
9. Carol Mosley Braun (last month: tied for 9) — Poor Carol. I don’t recall her doing or saying anything memorable at all in July. Come September, it’ll be time to withdraw.