We knew this was only a matter of time.
The White House figured it was giving the Cuban-American exile community in South Florida exactly what it wanted — harsh restrictions on American travel and remittances to Cuba. It seemed like a predictable election-year pander to a key group in the nation’s most important swing state. Just as importantly, it seemed like a safe bet for Bush in trying to please a constituency who felt taken for granted.
But as I mentioned a month ago, the new policies are a bigger gamble than the White House may realize. While Cuban-Americans overwhelmingly support tough policies against Fidel Castro’s brutal regime, aid to Cubans themselves is another matter altogether — though estimates vary, most post-Mariel exiles send money back to relatives in Cuba. Under Bush’s new “get tough on Castro” policies, those remittances will be severaly limited.
I predicted a possible backlash. The Miami Herald pointed to one yesterday.
Bush’s nod to the hard-liners in the exile community — a further restriction on travel to the island and a clamp-down on those who can receive cash assistance from U.S. relatives — has touched off an emotionally charged backlash among Cuban Americans with family members still in Cuba and among some exiles who believe that change can come only from within the island.
And it has led some to warn that by playing to his conservative base, the president could hand Democratic rival John Kerry an opening in a state that decided the presidency in 2000 by just 537 votes.
”It’s counter to the basic principle of family reunification,” said Miami banker Carlos Saladrigas, chairman of the moderate Cuba Study Group.
He noted that he has been a Republican ”all my life” but is incensed by the travel and cash restrictions and is wrestling with how he will vote in November.
”We want to affect the Cuban government, not hurt the Cuban people, and these are absolutely and totally the wrong measures,” he said.
Poor Bush; he can’t even pander to a loyal GOP constituency correctly.
And now, some of the same people Bush thought he was winning over with his new Cuban policy are demanding a reversal.
Infuriated by the restrictions, several Cuban-American exile groups have begun to collect signatures to petition the administration to lift them. Others plan a voter registration campaign aimed at signing up new citizens — those most likely to be affected by the changes.
”It was a potentially dangerous move for a candidate who needs 80 percent of the Cuban vote,” said Sergio Bendixen, a Democratic pollster who estimates that close to half of all Cuban Americans and 25 percent of Cuban-American voters send money home to family members on the island. “He can’t afford to alienate anyone.”
No he can’t, but he’s managing to anyway.
Again, this is a politically significant controversy. Bush “won” Florida (and its 25 electoral votes) by 500 votes four years ago. If even a small percentage of the Cuban-American community in South Florida are angered enough by the new Bush policy to withhold support on Election Day, Bush will find it very difficult to win Florida. And if Bush loses Florida, he loses the election.