The partisan split within Florida’s Cuban-American community is well known. Old-timers, who fled Castro’s brutal revolution and have been in the U.S. for 30 or more years, have always been staunch Republicans. Younger Cuban-Americans, most of whom were born in the U.S., have proven to be less rigid about the embargo and partisanship.
But I was surprised at just how stark the difference was in a poll conducted last week.
Democrat John Kerry enjoys a commanding lead over President Bush among Cuban Americans born in the United States and a decided edge among Cubans who arrived in the country after 1980, according to a new poll of Miami-Dade Hispanics that reveals deep divisions within a community traditionally viewed as staunchly Republican.
The poll, commissioned by a Democratic group that is targeting Hispanic voters, shows Kerry with a 58-32 percent advantage among Cubans born in the United States, suggesting that the Massachusetts senator has an opportunity to siphon potentially critical support from Bush.
But the poll, to be released today, shows Bush crushing Kerry among the largest — and perhaps most politically active and vocal — group of Cuban-American voters: those who arrived before the 1980 Mariel boatlift. Those voters — who make up about two-thirds of all Cuban-American registered voters in Miami-Dade, according to the survey — back the Republican incumbent overwhelmingly, 89 to 8 percent, with just 3 percent undecided.
That’s quite a difference. Kerry enjoys a lead over Bush among younger Cubans but can’t even reach double digits among the old-timers.
There’s good news and bad news here for Dems. The bad news there are more pre-1980 voters. Among all Cuban-Americans, Bush enjoys a comfortable lead, 69% to 21%. The good news is Bush’s support has dropped considerably over the last four years. In 2000, Bush enjoyed 81% of the Cuban-American vote.
Will a 12-point drop be enough to make a difference on Election Day? You bet it will. Gore “lost” Florida by 500 votes. This year, there won’t be a “butterfly” ballot in Palm Beach and Bush’s support in the Cuban community is falling fast. Those are 27 electoral votes that are still very much up-for-grabs.
And, let’s not forget, the crackdown on travel and remittances isn’t exactly shoring up Bush’s support; on the contrary, it’s creating a bit of a backlash.
In fact, the AP’s estimable Ron Fournier was in Miami over the weekend and saw GOP support among Cubans on the wane for the first time, well, ever.
South Florida’s Cuban-American community of about 600,000 is divided over the Bush administration’s policies, with some hard-line exiles complaining that Bush has failed to take a tougher stance against Castro. A younger generation of Cubans who were born in the United States – or raised here most of their lives – are more likely to support engagement with Cuba. They are not knee-jerk Republicans like their parents.
Bush’s problems echo within the walls of Versailles Restaurant, a bastion of Cuban exiles in the heart of Miami’s Little Havana neighborhood.
“The war in Iraq is no good,” says Emelio G. Faroy, sipping a high-octane cup of Cuban coffee. Each election finds this lifelong Republican more open to Democrats.
“Most Cubans have always been Republican by nature. I followed my mother’s lead,” said the 56-year-old bail bondsman. “But when you get older, and see how things are, you think differently.”
The really interesting part of the AP piece was about Iraq. Cuban-Americans are wondering why Bush, who says bringing democracy to Iraq is a paramount international priority, won’t offer a similar benefit to people suffering under a communist regime just 90 miles from the U.S. border.
In a series of interviews over two days, Cuban-Americans didn’t need prompting to raise concerns about Iraq and, in some cases, Bush.
“The problem with the Cuban people is we don’t feel Cuba will ever be free because the government of the United States is more interested in freeing Iraq,” said Santiago Portal, 65, who voted for Bush in 2000.
Democratic pollster Sergio Bendixen said he’s heard the same complaints in Cuban-American focus groups.
“The question they keep asking is if President Bush invaded Iraq to bring democracy, why won’t he do the same for Cuba? How many people from Iraq voted for him?” Bendixen said.
It’s a good question. I wonder when Bush will come up with a good answer.