Depending on the count, Barack Obama is about 42 delegates shy of the 2,118 he needs to secure the Democratic nomination. After today’s primaries in Montana and South Dakota, the gap between Obama and the finish line should be in the 20 to 25 range, at least with regards to pledged delegates.
So, the party may need to wait a day or two before wrapping up the nomination process? Not if the Obama campaign can help it.
Senator Barack Obama’s campaign began a concerted effort on Monday to rally undecided superdelegates around him so he can claim the Democratic presidential nomination after the primaries end on Tuesday night.
Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton invited fund-raisers and other supporters to an election-night rally in New York City where, aides said, she was prepared to deliver what they described as a farewell speech that summed up the case for her candidacy. They said Mrs. Clinton was not likely to withdraw from the race on Tuesday night, probably waiting until later in the week, once Mr. Obama’s victory appeared clear.
Sensing an opportunity to shut down the nominating contest, Obama campaign advisers said that they were orchestrating an endorsement of Mr. Obama by at least eight Senate and House members who had pledged to remain uncommitted until the primaries ended, and that the endorsements would come the moment the South Dakota polls closed on Tuesday night.
Sen. Tom Harkin of Iowa will reportedly lead the group of uncommitted Senate Dems, while in the House, Rep. James Clyburn of South Carolina, the No. 3 Dem in the chamber, will endorse Obama today, and began urging his House colleagues to do the same.
“We’re trying to get the number as quickly as possible,” Obama campaign manager David Plouffe said. “We are trying to convince as many as possible to come out tomorrow.” Asked if Obama would cross the finish line before the day’s end, Plouffe added, “We are trying to. I don’t know if we can get there.”
Part of the point, apparently, is to have the support in place before the results from Montana and South Dakota are announced, so that Obama can say voters put him over the top instead of party insiders (superdelegates). It would also allow Obama to use his speech in Minnesota tonight — at the site of the Republican convention — as an unambiguous victory address.
Hillary Clinton’s plans, meanwhile, are less clear.
It’s difficult to get a reliable read on what the Clinton campaign will do, in large part because we’re relying on unnamed campaign insiders talking to reporters and offering hints, leading to some reports that conflict with others.
The NYT reported that Clinton supporters were making calls to uncommitted lawmakers to wait until Wednesday to endorse “in deference to Mrs. Clinton.” The campaign itself, however, appears to be winding down:
Mrs. Clinton has no public traveling schedule through the weekend, other than to Washington, reflecting what is, for all practical purposes, a campaign in suspension. Her associates said that no one in her campaign saw any way she could win the nomination, and that the only question now was when Mr. Obama could claim victory. The associates requested anonymity in deference to Mrs. Clinton’s request for privacy. […]
The most likely situation, some of Mrs. Clinton’s aides said, was that she would suspend her campaign later in the week and would probably — though not definitely — endorse Mr. Obama.
The WaPo report suggested a slightly more combative approach at Clinton headquarters, with a candidate who will continue to make her case beyond this evening.
Clinton sent mixed signals about her plans throughout the day Monday. As her campaign recalled field staffers to New York, one adviser indicated that she would suspend, but not end, her campaign within days. But the candidate herself said she will continue to argue to the group of party insiders who will hold sway over the final outcome that her strong showing in recent contests demonstrates that she would be the more electable candidate in November.
“Tomorrow is the last day of the primaries and the beginning of a new phase in the campaign,” Clinton said in Yankton, S.D., before she prepared to depart for a Tuesday-night rally in New York. “After South Dakota and Montana vote, I will lead in the popular vote and Senator Obama will lead in the delegate count. The voters will have voted, and so the decision will fall to the delegates empowered to vote at the Democratic convention. I will be spending the coming days making my case to those delegates.”
And Ben Smith noted that Harold Ickes spoke with major fundraisers yesterday, explaining that Clinton isn’t planning to step aside, and urging them to stay unified. Meanwhile, a Clinton fundraising aide, Rafi Jafri, is circulating a draft letter from Clinton’s Illinois finance committee, which argues that “this nominating process must be resolved in August, and no earlier.”
That’s the landscape. We’ll know more soon.