The eroding base

March 10, 2006

The latest AP-Ipsos poll is out this morning and, like every other recent national poll, the president’s support has slipped badly. Overall, Bush’s approval rating in this poll stands at 37%, the lowest of his presidency in an AP poll.

That’s not exactly new. What the AP notes, however, is that Bush is finally losing support among those who have consistently — some might even say, irrationally — stuck with the president.

More and more people, particularly Republicans, disapprove of President Bush’s performance, question his character and no longer consider him a strong leader against terrorism, according to an AP-Ipsos poll documenting one of the bleakest points of his presidency.

Nearly four out of five Americans, including 70 percent of Republicans, believe civil war will break out in Iraq — the bloody hot spot upon which Bush has staked his presidency. Nearly 70 percent of people say the U.S. is on the wrong track, a 6-point jump since February. […]

Bush’s job approval among Republicans plummeted from 82 percent in February to 74 percent, a dangerous sign in a midterm election year when parties rely on enthusiasm from their most loyal voters. The biggest losses were among white males.

Congressional Republicans hardly fare any better. Two-thirds of the public disapproves of how the GOP-led Congress is handling its job and a surprising 53% of Republicans give Congress poor marks. By a 47-36 margin, people favor Democrats over Republicans when they are asked who should control Congress.

Consider this your morale boost for the day.

I’m a big fan of Dr. Pollkatz and his Bush Index.

His November 15, 2005 Bush Index ranking was four tenths of a point lower than today’s.

And, regarding the “Who should control Congress” question, because of the gerrymandering of the country, you should always decrease the Democrats by 5%, and increase the Republicans by 5%, to see how it might actually pan out. Many Dem districts are more thoroughly Dem than Rep districts, or so history has shown.

  • As happy as it makes me that people– even Republicans– are waking up to the (obvious) fact that he’s a horrible president, I just wish I had more confidence that the Dems aren’t going to figure out a way to screw it up this fall regardless.

  • Mr. Carpetbagger,

    any notion as to why Rasmussen consistently reports Bush approval numbers far above those of every other poll? I don’t know much about the methodology, but Rasmussen was one of the most accurate pollsters when it came to the 2004 election. It just seems odd…

    Any insight is much appreciated.

  • JS Narins – Thanks for your link. Really informative.
    I especially like the confidence interval data.
    A graphical representation can be found here:

    http://www.hist.umn.edu/~ruggles/Approval.htm

    Unfortunately, they don’t update very often, so
    the graph is seldom current – but it does show
    the historical trends in dramatic fashion.

    We should all bookmark your link.

  • So Bush is down to 37% 😉

    The real question should be: do you support the Republican party enough to get out of the house on a cold November day and cast a ballot for the incompetent, deficit loving, corrupt bastards?

  • Bush is finally losing support among those who have consistently — some might even say, irrationally — stuck with the president.

    Hmmm, what else could one possibly say?

    A patch of lichen has more comprehension than a Shrub lover. Duhhhh is f’n eureka to a Shrubite emerging into the light like a cicada after being underground for it’s 17 year cycle.

    Paramecium on parade with cilia quivering in rightous indignation, (but not anger. never anger). In honor of Ms. Judy Baar Topinka’s astute observation, they shall be known as morons.

    • Comments are closed.