The first round of post-Katrina polling data

September 5, 2005

I realize that polls are hardly the most important thing to consider right now, but survey data does offer us some insight into the perceptions of the public and their concerns over how the Katrina disaster has been handled by their government.

In light of the overwhelming and bipartisan criticism of the federal government’s response, I more or less assumed the public would be disappointed, if not disgusted, with the Bush administration’s handling of the crisis. True? Well, it depends on which poll you trust.

A Washington Post/ABC News poll released over the weekend suggested there was surprisingly strong support for the administration’s efforts.

Americans are broadly critical of government preparedness in the Hurricane Katrina disaster — but far fewer take George W. Bush personally to task for the problems, and public anger about the response is less widespread than some critics would suggest. […]

Forty-six percent of Americans approve of Bush’s handling of the crisis, while 47 percent disapprove. That compares poorly with Bush’s 91 percent approval rating for his performance in the immediate aftermath of the 9/11 terrorist attacks, but it’s far from the broad discontent expressed by critics of the initial days of the hurricane response. (It also almost exactly matches Bush’s overall job approval rating, 45 percent, in an ABC/Post poll a week ago.)

Similarly, 48 percent give a positive rating to the federal government’s response overall, compared with 51 percent who rate it negatively — another split view, not a broadly critical one.

Now, clearly, this doesn’t make any sense. Were a lot of Americans on vacation last week, preventing them from keeping up on current events? Were Bush’s photo-ops really successful in changing people’s minds? Or was the Post/ABC poll something of a fluke?

If you believe SurveyUSA, it might be the latter. When asked if they approve or disapprove of Bush’s response to Hurricane Katrina, 38% of respondents said they approve, while 55% said they disapprove. By way of comparison, on Wednesday, those numbers were nearly reversed, with 48% approving and 39% disapproving.

I have to assume these numbers will continue to get worse for the president as the public learns more about the federal government’s failures, but then again, the White House spin machine at work, so you never know.

CB, I gotta disagree with your analysis here. This is very, very bad news for the president. You never, ever expect to see numbers this low for handling a disaster. If he’s only starting out at a statistical tie on how he’s doing, it’ll only get worse once the horrors in New Orleans get legs.

  • You never, ever expect to see numbers this low for handling a disaster.

    That’s a fair point, but I still can’t wrap my head around the Post/ABC numbers. 46% approve of Bush’s handling of the crisis? 48% approve of the federal government’s response overall? Are these folks living on the same planet as the rest of us?

  • Just saw this at Kos
    [Approval-Disapproval]

    Today 44 55
    Sept 4 45 53
    Sept 3 45 54
    Sept 2 47 52
    Sept 1 47 52

    In addition, look at the degree of approval/disapproval.

    Strongly Approve 21%
    Somewhat Approve 23%
    Somewhat Disapprove 14%
    Strongly Disapprove 41%

    These are terrible numbers for Bush. I suspect they’d be worse but common decency prevents alot of people from pointing fingers mid-crisis.

    I wonder if this will be Bush’s defining moment. He was asleep at the wheel as Katrina struck, just as he was asleep at the wheel when Bin Laden struck. There is a pattern emerging, and it’s pretty damning.

  • Why should anyone believe anything the Washington
    Post or ABC says? The whole world saw the supposedly
    pro-active Bush administration exposed as the in-
    cometent fools they are, but now, now the WaPo is
    already carrying the water for Karl Inc. trying to say
    the world really didn’t see what it saw.

  • What is telling in this Survey USA poll is that Bush’s strong approval numbers (21%) have sunken below the 35-38% figures that are often seen as a proxy for his hardcore, fundamentalist Christian, yellow dog Republican base.

    And even thought the Republican smear, dodge and off load blame campaign may be in full swing, there are probably a lot of Americans who will not be be in a “blaming mood”. So the trash campaign will not be as effective. It could, and hopefully it will, backfire.

  • Can someone just keep running the clip of GWB saying “we had no idea the levee would break” along with Chertof saying “we had no idea a flood would come after the hurricane”, followed by an announcer saying, “who are these people in charge?”

    Then run it over and over again.

  • The MSM are not coming down on Bush. They
    are reporting the criticisms, but the public is
    seeing it as the same old partisan blame game
    crap that they see all the time. The poll is right
    down party lines, as we should expect.

    The American people are never going to
    wake up. Never.

    These numbers are not bad for Bush, because
    they indicate his base is solid, and that’s all
    they need to continue in power.

    It’s disappointing, but totally expected. Nothing
    will shake the faith of Bush’s base. Nothing.

    I also think that his numbers will improve a
    bit as time goes on, as relief efforts begin
    to show results. Bush will suffer no consequences
    from this disaster, except the MSM will sympathize
    with him because it interferes with his
    legislative agenda.

    Sorry to be contrary, but that’s how I
    see it.

  • I have to agree with Hark on this one. I am vacationing with my family of staunch Bush supporters. They are not outraged about the despicable response to Katrina in NOLA, and if they were they would not blame W.

  • I think you guys have to put these poll numbers in perspective, instead of just looking at them in isolation.

    First, remember that Richard Nixon’s approval rating on the day he resigned in August of 1974 was still 25%–i.e. one in four Americans. Thus, the fact that between 38% and 46% of respondents (depending on which poll you’re looking at from the past few days) think Bush is doing a good job should not come as a surprise. For any president, whether Republican or Democrat, there’s a base of supporters who will not be swayed by anything.

    Second, remember that Bush’s approval rating right after 9/11 was a whopping 91%, so the fact that Bush’s disapproval rating today is at 55% according to Rasmussen, of all places, shows just how far Bush has fallen in the past 4 years.

    In times of crisis, there’s usually a “rally-round-the-flag effect” immediately thereafter (hell, Jimmy Carter’s approval rating jumped 26% in 1979 after the US embassy in Iran was seized). Bush is not receiving this benefit, although this in no way mitigates the unimaginable suffering that we’ve seen throughout the past week.

    Try harder, Karl and Dan

  • i noticed that the ABC poll asked party affiliation and i wonder if people who are made to identify themselves as repubs would then be more reluctant to go ‘on record’ as criticizing the prez.

    i’m sure this is covered in polling methods 101, but i majored in english anyway.

  • I’m with hark, too–the media’s important, but the ability of the media to influence us only goes so far.

    Only once the real consequences of this disasterous presidency become impossible to ignore will people really begin to turn. New Orleans was one shock to the system, but still distant from most of us. But the gas prices hit much closer. The coming collapse of our economy will be another jolt. Duct tape and rhetoric can only hold the economy together for so long.

    Unfortunately, it will be too late for us all by then.

  • What the average person doesn’t seem to realize is that the PRIMARY responsibilty for this huge problem lie in the Mayor’s office and in the State House not in DC. I give the Feds 9 on a scale of 10 for their response in coming to the rescue of the obviously incapable local authorities. It wasn’t the President who left a parking lot full of buses to drown, after he had orderd the evacuation. Let’s stop the BS politicising and get on with the job.

  • Bush’s poll number may go up or down depending on the alzheimer memory of the American public. Look at the history of this country and how we always respond to the most recent news instead of tempering this with other events that show patterns.

    Everyone screwed up on this one… the locals had no real plan or idea of how to execute one…Homeland Security thought it could get by with funding some new equipment, offices and seminars but never really got anyone to talk to anyone else (same problem as ground zero in NY in 2001) or create an organizational plan for a disaster and “Bush and Company” didn’t know what to say once all their layers of bureaucracy force fields crumbled around them.

    Face it, Homeland Security has been a smokes and mirrors invention to divert attention from the oil prices, environmental policies, and the ever-sinking American Standard of Living…..

    We are on our own.

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