The Gingrich Groundswell

With the Iowa caucuses less than four months away, I had more or less assumed Newt Gingrich’s time had come and gone. He’d signal that he’s getting in, then he’d do the opposite. He’d encourage supporters to create a groundswell, and then he’d tell them not to bother. With nine Republicans already in the race (10, if you count Alan Keyes), Gingrich had missed his window quite a while ago.

Except he doesn’t see it that way.

In the latest sign of how unsettled the Republican presidential race is, Newt Gingrich says he’ll run if supporters come up with $30million in three weeks.

“I don’t see as a citizen how you could turn that down,” Gingrich said yesterday on “Fox News Sunday.”

The fiery and controversial former speaker of the House has been a polarizing public figure. Still, he believes he can mount a White House bid just a few months before voting starts because the GOP faithful have yet to solidify behind a candidate.

Newt has asked Randy Evans, his longtime advisor, to oversee an ambitious initiative — Evans, starting a week from today, will see if he can get $30 million in commitments (not actual donations, just promised donations) over three weeks. If he can, Newt will throw his hat into the ring.

“I want the commitments first,” Gingrich said. “If there is, in fact, enough people in the country who think we need this kind of approach and this kind of change-oriented policies, then I think I’d feel a responsibility to run.”

I’m inclined to laugh at all of this, but quite a few people seem to take it seriously.

From David Broder:

In the years since I first met him in 1974, I have learned that it’s wise to take Newt Gingrich seriously. He has many character flaws, and his language is often exaggerated and imprudent. But if there is any politician of the current generation who has earned the label “visionary,” it is probably the Georgia Republican and former speaker of the House.

To Newsweek:

Gingrich wants to be a postmodern Goldwater, a man who uses technology to bring on the next great debate. He imagines a presidential campaign where instead of spending money on TV advertising, a candidate mails DVDs laying out his ideas to every voter in Iowa and New Hampshire with a simple request: “Do you think your country’s future, your children’s future and your grandchildren’s future is worth one hour of your time?” Could such an unorthodox strategy actually work if it was unleashed as late as this winter? It seems unlikely. Which is why Gingrich can’t be discounted: unlikely prospects have always served him well.

To The American Scene:

[H]onestly, on the facts, nobody’s better suited than Newt to both hark back to high times for the GOP and break decisively with Bush … his other shortcomings notwithstanding. I for one hope Newt runs.

Can’t you just feel the Newtmentum?

If not, maybe you can feel the desperation. It’s amazing to see the GOP scramble for some kind of credible, compelling presidential candidate, who can swoop in and save the party from electoral ruin. Fred Thompson was supposed to be that guy, but he’s proven to be a surprisingly awful candidate — prompting the party faithful to look around and start wondering, “Who else is out there?”

For now, Newt is the GOP Savior of the Week. He’ll let Republicans down, undoubtedly, leading the party to look for a new hero fairly soon. There’s just one small catch: they’re runinng out of weeks.

I’m inclined to laugh at all of this, but quite a few people seem to take it seriously.

Not people throwing any money around, though.

  • Yes, in these troubled and corrupt times, who better to lead us than a troubled and corrupt man like ol’Newtie. I pity the fool who even thinks this hack has political viability at this late date in our social development. -Kevo

  • This will be fun to watch. We won’t ever know whether he got $30 M in pledges or not. He’s just stirring the pot. It does mean that Thompson isn’t catching on like a forest fire in a high wind. Does the Newt really think the religious wing-nuts will vote for him in the primary? I want to hear him talk the talk, him with his three wives.

  • I think that Gingrich will win the nomination. All of the other Republicans pale in comparison. I just can’t see Rudy or Mitt or Fred being ready for prime time.

    Of course, the odds of him winning are now worse than 25-1.

  • let us all hope for his decision to run because that will be the final nail of the republic-thug coffin. They haven’t got an honorable or competent man or woman in their whole bag of slime-balls. Hagel is the only man left with a modicum of integrity and he is quitting. How pathetic.

  • btw, rich @ #6…
    i’d like to see him talk the talk with all three wives at once. maybe he’d beat out mitt for the mormon vote!

  • I’d like to se a retrpospective on Newt the Scoot. Something about the Contract and how it worked out. About his marital foibles, his utter dependability, his sheer goofiness, his voting records.

    Anyone willing to tackle the task?

  • Newt Gingrich says he’ll run if supporters come up with $30million in three weeks.

    Isn’t that called extortion?

    Seriously, I’ve been saying for almost a year now, it’ll be Gore v Gingrich in 08.

  • In some ways I’d like to see Gingrich run.

    I can’t see any significant differences between the candidates in terms of preferring one over another in case the Republicans do win.

    Where Gingrich might be different is that there is a slight hope that the presidential campaign might be over issues as opposed to the usual smear campaigns. Gingrich will run on his positions, as opposed to hiding them as Bush did when he claimed to be a compassionate conservative in 2000. A campaign where ideas are discussed (even if this means bad ideas from Gingrich) would be a welcome change.

  • I suspect that Newt already has his donors for the $30 million lined up. If anyone knows how to play the media it’s Newt. I’ll bet one of two things will happen: either he’ll come out in TWO weeks and say that he’s reached his $30 million goal in even less time than he thought he needed (and therefore is the inevitable GOP candidate) OR he’ll come back out in three weeks and say that he’s collected some millions more than his $30 million target (and therefore is the inevitable GOP candidate). Then he’ll milk the press a bit more before actually declaring his candidacy.

    If Newt hasn’t got this all setup behind the scenes and really is hoping that that $30 million just comes on its own, I’ll be very surprised.

  • Nony Nony, I think you’ve scoped out the situation very well.

    I don’t think we should “misunderestimate” Newt. Lately he’s been sounding almost rational, he’s very smart, and he certainly has no competition from anyone in the currrent crew.

  • The Reskunklican dam is at maximum goofiness-capacity already; adding Gingrich to the mix will certainly cause a complete collapse. I suppose I’ll be looking at my GOP neighbor across the street and saying, “You’ve just been Newted back to the Stone Age.”

    Newt ’em ’til they glow!

  • One of the ways the first Gingrich revolution is still with us is welfare reform (which Clinton opposed and then claimed responsibility for). Newt led the way to do that and much more but was politically outmaneuvered by Clinton.

    Very few Washington insiders believed he could take control of the House away from the Democrats and astonishingly, it happened.

    As far as the timeline is concerned, by historical standards it’s still pretty early to be saying that someone has missed their time. He spent the summer traveling on a book tour talking with his considerable following all over the country. To conservatives, he’s inspiring.

    Newt is a brilliant man and he ought to be President of the United States.

  • Bill:

    When did alleged brilliance become a sufficient qualification for the White House? Even most Clintonhaters agree that Bill is brilliant. But I have a feeling you didn’t like him much.

    Newt is no leader. Even when he was riding high as Speaker of the Republicans, he had incredibly low poll numbers personally. He spent a few weekends in New Hampshire back then, but that ended quickly – the locals told him to get lost.

    For all of his talent, Newt’s fatal flaw is that he’s a horse’s patoot. He’s one of the least likable people on the planet – even to Republicans. The most telling sign of the current Republican desperation for a credible candidate is that anyone is even taking Newt seriously.

    But if you want a polarizing presidential race, let’s run Newt against Hillary. If that happens we’re likely to have a shooting war before the campaign is over.

  • ” He imagines a presidential campaign where instead of spending money on TV advertising, a candidate mails DVDs laying out his ideas to every voter in Iowa and New Hampshire…”

    Where it will land in the trash can, next to those AOL disks that come in the mail.

    I think this is just Newt wanting to come out of Air Force One and say in the camera “HA! See me walking out THE FRONT, Clinton??? IN YOUR FACE!!!”

  • William #18:
    “Newt is a brilliant man and he ought to be President of the United States.”

    Dude, blog rule, if you have psychotropic drugs you have to share with all the Carpetbaggers.

    Newt is a snake-oil salesman and I would not be surprised if Newt’s national campaign strategy is going to be selling a monorail line from Odgenville to North Haverbrook.

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