If there’s one thing Republicans are supposed to be able to count on, no matter the circumstances or political climate, it’s support from religious voters, particularly Christian evangelicals, who support the GOP on social issues. It’s created a “God gap” — the more voters worship, the more likely they are to vote Republican.
That is, until now. The “God gap” is shrinking.
Lynn Sunde, an evangelical Christian, is considering what for her is a radical step. Come November, she may vote for a Democrat for Congress.
Sunde, 35, manages a coffee shop and attends a nondenominational Bible church. “You’re never going to agree with one party on everything, so for me the key has always been the religion issues — abortion, the marriage amendment” to ban same-sex unions, she said.
That means she consistently votes Republican. But, she said, she is starting to worry about the course of the Iraq war, and she finds the Internet messages from then-Rep. Mark Foley (R-Fla.) to teenage boys “pretty sickening.” When she goes into the voting booth this time, she said, “I’m going to think twice…. I’m not going to vote party line as much as to vote issues.”
Sunde, obviously, is just an anecdotal example, but there’s ample evidence that voters who were swayed by culture-war fights in previous cycles just aren’t falling in line again this year.
According to the WaPo, white evangelical or born-again Christians made up a quarter of the electorate in 2004, and 78% of them voted Republican. A Pew Research Center report this week, however, found that 57% of white evangelicals are inclined to vote for Republican congressional candidates, which points to a possible 21-point drop, while 42% said Republicans govern “in a more honest and ethical way” than Democrats, down from 55% at the start of the year.
And that’s largely in advance of the Mark Foley sex scandal and GOP cover-up.
Nationally, the Republicans’ once formidable hold on churchgoing voters has begun to slip. Among those who say they attend church more than once a week, the GOP still holds a commanding lead. The main shift is among weekly churchgoers, about a quarter of all voters. Two years ago, they favored the GOP by a double-digit margin. But in the new Pew survey, 44 percent leaned toward Republicans and 43 percent toward Democrats, a statistical dead heat.
The slippage is particularly striking among evangelicals. According to Pew data, the portion of white evangelical Protestants who identify themselves as Republicans rose steadily from 2000 to 2004 but leveled off this year at about half. The percentage who support keeping troops in Iraq has dropped to 55 percent, from 68 percent in early September.
“The allegiance of evangelicals has been more in flux over the past 12 months, suggesting that the considerations going into their votes are changing,” said Scott Keeter, Pew’s director of survey research.
To be sure, much of this trend seems to be Republicans losing support, as opposed to Dems gaining it. A recent survey by the Center for American Values, a project of the People for the American Way Foundation, found that Republicans have lost 14% support among evangelical voters, while Dems have picked up 4% support.
Still, a shift is a shift. Evangelicals are as upset about the war as everyone else, and the culture war is lacking its usual salience. In close races, where the GOP expects the faithful to make up the difference, Republicans may find they’ve fallen from grace.