Last night, InsiderAdvantage, a Republican polling firm, raised quite a few eyebrows by releasing a new survey of Democrats in Iowa, which put John Edwards out in front with 30% support. Hillary Clinton was second with 26%, followed by Barack Obama with 24%. It was largely the opposite of all the recent data — practically all the recent polls show Obama pulling ahead, with Edwards a close third.
Was the InsiderAdvantage poll a harbinger or an outlier? It’s obviously hard to say for sure, but a new WaPo/ABC poll, which used a more reliable sample, did far more to bolster the conventional wisdom about the Democratic race in Iowa.
Sens. Barack Obama of Illinois and Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York remain deadlocked in Iowa, with former senator John Edwards of North Carolina trailing, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll that underscores the importance of the massive efforts the Democratic candidates have set in motion to turn out supporters on Jan. 3.
In a race that could hinge on a campaign’s ability to motivate voters to brave wintry conditions and spend hours attending caucuses, each of the leading contenders appears to enjoy distinct advantages. More of Obama’s backers said they are certain to participate than did those who have gotten behind Clinton. But Clinton’s supporters are the most committed and enthusiastic, and Edwards counts among his supporters experienced caucus attendees who are more likely to turn out again.
According to the poll, Obama now leads among likely caucusgoers with 33%, followed by Clinton at 29%, and Edwards at 20%. Obama’s four-point lead is identical to a Post/ABC poll from a month ago, though both have upped their percentages (it was 30% to 26%).
Given the significance of second-place preferences, it’s also worth noting that among those Iowa Dems whose first choice is below 15%, Obama is the top second-choice candidate with 37%, Clinton is second at 31% and Edwards third at 26%.
What’s striking about the results, though, is that while Obama seems to be up slightly at the moment, the race, which is just 15 days away, is completely unpredictable. Indeed, the poll offers a little good news for fans of each of the top three candidates.
Obama has gained ground on Clinton on the question of which Democrat is seen as most electable in November 2008, which had been one of her early calling cards in wooing voters. Clinton retains a significant advantage as the candidate with the best experience to be president. […]
More than seven in 10 of Obama’s supporters said they are certain to participate in the caucuses, compared with 59 percent of Clinton’s backers.
Clinton’s supporters, however, are the most firmly behind her. Seventy percent said they will definitely caucus for her in two weeks, while Edwards’s and Obama’s supporters were more apt to say there is a good chance they might change their minds. Moreover, 59 percent of Clinton’s backers said they are very enthusiastic about supporting her, compared with 49 percent of Obama’s supporters.
Solid support for both Clinton and Edwards rose over the past month, while Obama’s remained stable. The level of excitement among Clinton’s and Edwards’s supporters also increased in that time, but did not change among Obama’s.
Adding to the challenge for Clinton and Obama is that they are relying more heavily than Edwards on potential first-time caucus participants. More than half the supporters of Clinton and Obama have never caucused, while two-thirds of Edwards’s backers have done so. Edwards is hoping to draw on the network he built in Iowa four years ago when he finished second to Sen. John F. Kerry, the eventual Democratic nominee.
Considering other turnout factors brings no additional clarity. Age and education are two key predictors of caucus participation, with older and more highly educated people disproportionately showing up to vote. While Clinton outpaces Obama among older voters, particularly those aged 65 and up, Obama outperforms her nearly 3 to 1 among those with an education of a college degree or more.
Obama nearly doubles up his competitors among those under age 40 and has made a sizable effort to recruit college students and even some high school students. But they have been far less reliable caucus attendees in the past.
ABC News’ report added, “Applying tighter turnout scenarios can produce anything from a 10-point Obama lead to a 6-point Clinton edge — evidence of the still-unsettled nature of this contest, two weeks before Iowans gather and caucus. And not only do 33 percent say there’s a chance they yet may change their minds, nearly one in five say there’s a ‘good chance’ they’ll do so.”
Stay tuned.