The kids are alright

June 27, 2007

Bush’s presidency is the gift that keeps on giving.

Young Americans are more likely than the general public to favor a government-run universal health care insurance system, an open-door policy on immigration and the legalization of gay marriage, according to a New York Times/CBS News/MTV poll. The poll also found that they are more likely to say the war in Iraq is heading to a successful conclusion. […]

[Americans ages 17 to 29] have continued a long-term drift away from the Republican Party. And although they are just as worried as the general population about the outlook for the country and think their generation is likely to be worse off than that of their parents, they retain a belief that their votes can make a difference, the poll found.

More than half of Americans ages 17 to 29 — 54 percent — say they intend to vote for a Democrat for president in 2008. They share with the public at large a negative view of President Bush, who has a 28 percent approval rating with this group, and of the Republican Party. They hold a markedly more positive view of Democrats than they do of Republicans.

Obviously, as people get older, their political attitudes can shift, but if this snapshot is any indication, we’re looking at a young generation that is poised to be the most progressive in history. (28% of this age group describe themselves as liberal, eight points higher than the rest of the U.S. population.)

This comes through even more forcefully on specific policy issues.

Forty-four percent said they believed that same-sex couples should be permitted to get married, compared with 28 percent of the public at large. They are more likely than their elders to support the legalization of possession of small amounts of marijuana. […]

In the current poll, 62 percent said they would support a universal, government-sponsored national health care insurance program; 47 percent of the general public holds that view. And 30 percent said that “Americans should always welcome new immigrants,” while 24 percent of the general public holds that view. […]

By a 52 to 36 majority, young Americans say that Democrats, rather than Republicans, come closer to sharing their moral values, while 58 percent said they had a favorable view of the Democratic Party, and 38 percent said they had a favorable view of Republicans.

In 1984, Reagan won 59% of the youth vote. Four years later, H.W. Bush won 52% of voters in this age group. It’s been downhill for the GOP ever since, and now only 25% of 17- to 29-year-old voters identify themselves as Republican.

I’ve seen several long-term forecasts lately that suggest Dems are in trouble over the next couple of decades. People are moving away from “blue” strongholds (particularly in the Northeast), and relocating to “red” states that will grow in electoral significance.

But there’s a flip-side — the Bush era has driven the future in Dems’ direction. I’m tempted to send him a thank-you note.

It’s great that the “Youth Vote” is leaning to the Left. The problem is, they never actually show up in the Voting Booth in very large number. Never.

  • Something like your closing line is what I used to console myself after the 2004 election–and the second Bush administration if anything has been even a bigger disaster than I expected. Now if we can just get the media and the public to pay attention and realize how bad it is, the GOP should be out of power for a generation or more.

  • The poll also found that they are more likely to say the war in Iraq is heading to a successful conclusion. So how smart are they? I realise their the ones getting killed, and don’t want their friends deaths to be in vain. But if they think things are heading in the right direction, they’ll probobly show up to vote on the wrong day.

  • As the saying goes, a young person who’s not a Democrat has no heart; an older person who’s not a Republican has no brain.

    Obviously, this saying hasn’t been updated in the last few years.

  • In case any readers are members of the Grammar Patrol, CB is obviously alluding to the song and other work from The Who titled “The Kids Are Alright.”

    “Alright” would have sent my fussy old English teacher into a frenzy.

    Like Joe said: the kids ARE all right or alright or whatever. If we could just get them to vote.

  • The kids don’t vote because the politicians don’t get their issues. Ever.

    They will vote in droves if Al Gore heads up the ticket.

    Run, Al! We will bury the GOP.

  • More than half of Americans ages 17 to 29 — 54 percent — say they intend to vote for a Democrat for president in 2008.

    And the pResident will re-institute the draft in 5…4…3…2…

  • “The problem is, they never actually show up in the Voting Booth in very large number. Never.” – Regular Joe
    Never? Sure they do. When they get older.

    “If we could just get them to vote.” – OkieFromMuskogee
    Some never will, others will when they get older.

    The point is that their opinions and political standpoint is being formed now, and hope is that much of that will carry forward and remain with them when they eventually do vote. They won’t always be young. Lessons learned now can affect their politics for decades.

    This information was offered by CB in contrast to the statement “I’ve seen several long-term forecasts lately that suggest Dems are in trouble over the next couple of decades.”

  • It’s usually helpful to read the actual poll questions. And, if this site had, it would have seen that they’re something wrong with at least one of their conclusions. Let’s try and figure out exactly what this means:

    54. Which comes closer to your opinion: 1) America should always welcome all immigrants, OR 2) America should always welcome some immigrants, but not others, OR 3) America cannot afford to open its doors to any newcomers?

    Does that question make any sense to anyone who isn’t somehow impaired?

  • \”Does that question make any sense to anyone who isn’t somehow impaired?\” – actual poll #9

    I\’m guessing that this was a drive by posting, and that you are long gone and will never read my response, but on the slight chance that I\’m wrong. . . .

    The question seems pretty clear (though biased towards encouraging people to answer #2).

    Answer 1. My opinion is closer to completely open borders allowing anyone who wants to come to America (Give me your tired, your poor, your huddled masses yearning to breathe free, the wretched refuse of your teeming shore) than it is to either of the other 2 options.

    Answer 2. My opinion is closer to controlled borders allowing naturalized citizens, and foreign visitors under some fair process than it is to either of the other 2 options.

    Answer 3. My opinion is closer to isolationist ideas that keep all non-citizens out of the country forthe time being and the near future, than it is to either of the other 2 options.

    Note that there is a continuum here, whereby ones opinion doesn\’t need to match exactly any one of these 3 answers, but whatever that opinion is, it is likely to fall closer to one of these answers than the other 2.

    Given all that, and the fact that none of this seems clear to you, I wonder what your point has to do with the issue at hand: That an increasing number of youth are finding that their opinions line up closer with Democratic policy than with Republican, and that the policies of Pres. Bush\’s administration seem to be driving the future in the Dems\’ direction?

  • People are moving away from “blue” strongholds (particularly in the Northeast), and relocating to “red” states that will grow in electoral significance.

    This is supposed to be bad for Democrats? I guess the assumption is that this will either dilute the Democratic vote in the places that they left or will turn them into Republicans because it’s in the water there or something. Instead, this is a good thing from the standpoint of the Democratic Party. Look no farther than Colorado, New Mexico, and Arizona. These are all traditionally red states, all have had significant immigration (mostly from California) and all now have Democratic governors. Coincidence? Nope.

    As someone who lives in California and has lived in both Arizona and Colorado, I can attest to that. The influx of people from blue states to these red states is both diversifying the political population and opening up the political debate, so that even conservatives are more open to centrist Democrats. Hell, my father-in-law even thinks Jeannette Napolitano is doing a good job now. And that’s pretty amazing.

  • Another comforting angle to this is that despite decades of constant hammering by thousands of partisan radio stations, TV programs and evangelical political mobsters masquerading as spiritual leaders, the kids are still able to think for themselves in really large numbers.

    Just goes to show brainwashing really doesn’t work, even if you think Jesus is on your side.

    Cool. 🙂

  • Just goes to show brainwashing really doesn’t work, even if you think Jesus is on your side.

    I’m willing to bet the Talevangical brain washers have done more to create a new generation of liberals than any so called “threat to traditional values,” you care to name. If the Talevan starts advocating all of the things they now hate, then we’ll see hordes of blank-eyed brown shirts marching out of the nation’s high schools.

    Kids. God bless their contrary little hearts.

  • To second Rick’s conclusion @11; look at Virginia. It’s gone from solid red to purple in the past 10+ yrs, with 2 Dem governors elected in a row. And it’s due to the changing demographics in NoVa (northern VA) — younger and more tech-oriented folk moving in from bluer regions.

    Not just the cities, which usually lean left, either. It was really amusing to see how badly Repubs miscalculated on the DC suburbs in the gubernatorial race (’05). The tech boom of the late 90ties allowed the younger people to earn enough to move into the fancy suburbs and they didn’t change their political orientation when they moved. But the repubs assumed that anyone rich enough to live there was, automatically, pro-Gop, so litle effort was expended on defending those areas. Dems, OTOH, were active in attacking…

  • “It’s great that the “Youth Vote” is leaning to the Left.”

    Sadly, that isn’t what the article said. It said that “they intend to vote for a Democrat for president in 2008.” The last fifteen years, if not longer, have demonstrated that Democrats are not the Left. It seems to me that, instead, they siphon off the energy and votes of the Left and channel that energy and those votes back into more or less corporately conservative agendas. That’s what Kucinich did in 2004, that’s what Clinton did during his two terms, etc.

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