The kids are still alright

July 27, 2007

Kevin notes the latest Democracy Corps poll that suggests Bush has helped drive a generation of young people into the Democratic Party’s open arms.

This is about what you’d expect, but Democracy Corps has released yet another survey demonstrating that the Republican Party is losing young people in droves. Among 18-29 year olds, 50% have a favorable view of the Democratic Party compared to only 35% for the Republican Party. There are plenty of reasons for this, but basically they hate George Bush, they hate the Iraq war, and they hate religious conservatives.

The good news, of course, is that people are brand loyal. Once they make up their minds in their twenties which party they like better, they generally stick with it for the rest of their lives. So the Republican Party’s deal with the devil to embrace the Christian Right might have helped them out for a while, but in the long term it’s a disaster.

In 1984, Reagan won 59% of the youth vote. Four years later, H.W. Bush won 52% of voters in this age group. It’s been downhill for the GOP ever since, and now only 25% of 17- to 29-year-old voters identify themselves as Republican.

I’ve seen several long-term forecasts lately that suggest Dems are in trouble over the next couple of decades. People are moving away from “blue” strongholds (particularly in the Northeast), and relocating to “red” states that will grow in electoral significance.

But there’s a flip-side — the Bush era has driven the future in Dems’ direction.

The Democracy Corps numbers bolster the results of a recent New York Times/CBS/MTV poll.

Young Americans are more likely than the general public to favor a government-run universal health care insurance system, an open-door policy on immigration and the legalization of gay marriage, according to a New York Times/CBS News/MTV poll. The poll also found that they are more likely to say the war in Iraq is heading to a successful conclusion. […]

[Americans ages 17 to 29] have continued a long-term drift away from the Republican Party. And although they are just as worried as the general population about the outlook for the country and think their generation is likely to be worse off than that of their parents, they retain a belief that their votes can make a difference, the poll found.

More than half of Americans ages 17 to 29 — 54 percent — say they intend to vote for a Democrat for president in 2008. They share with the public at large a negative view of President Bush, who has a 28 percent approval rating with this group, and of the Republican Party. They hold a markedly more positive view of Democrats than they do of Republicans.

James Dobson’s Focus on the Family recently told supporters that young American voters “hold conservative views” and “continue to track conservative.”

Cognitive dissonance is such a sad state.

So much for Karl Rove’s vision for a Republican majority. He should have taken a look at Mark Hanna’s experiences and what happened with McKinley and the appointment of Theodore Roosevelt. Looks like our version of McKinley wanted his little brown war and it, instead, killed him.

  • I’ve seen several long-term forecasts lately that suggest Dems are in trouble over the next couple of decades. People are moving away from “blue” strongholds (particularly in the Northeast), and relocating to “red” states that will grow in electoral significance.
    Wouldn’t it follow that these states would become less ‘red’? Many of the red states are much less densely populated than the northeast, making it easier to tip them with an influx of new people.

  • Joe wrote: “Wouldn’t it follow that these states would become less ‘red’? Many of the red states are much less densely populated than the northeast, making it easier to tip them with an influx of new people. “

    Believe me, we are trying! I moved to Charlotte, NC about 5 years ago. There are plenty of us coming from up North, but we are greatly outnumbered. The last time I saw a map of the red vs. blue counties in the state we were a blue one surrounded by lots and lots of red ones!

  • Among the young people I know (18-27, which is young to me), there’s not a one that’s a Republican, and many utterly despise the Republican party. The last eight years of their lives has been watching the Republicans trash the country, lie, start a war that they’re quite afraid they’ll eventually be drafted into, and pander to religious conservatives.

    The Republicans blew it. And looking at the wingnut commentators and the current crop of candidates, they’re only going to keep alienating them.

  • A lot of people have problems with the analysis featured in books like THE EMERGING DEMOCRATIC MAJORITY, which states that there are several trends that should make the map more, not less, comfortable for Democrats. Nevertheless, at the very least, there’s something to think about. Taking just one possible trend, the emergence of Hispanics as an electoral force means that states in the Midwest as well as the Southwest and Florida and Texas could all become more competitive. If we can hold on to the Northeast, always be competitive in the Midwest, and start being competitive in Arizona, Nevada, and Colorado, as well as New Mexico, we shouldn’t be in too much trouble. Plus, if you have a potential game changer as the nominee–and in different ways, Clinton, Obama, and Edwards all fit that description–the rules no longer apply in the same way.

    I could go on and on here, and was tempted to do so, hopefully in a much more coherent fashion, but suffice it to say, the Democrats may never have a particularly easy time, but I suspect the situation won’t be nearly as dire as some suggest.

  • Face it, we were sold a lie the last 6 years. And if you look at the polling data on issues Dems have consistently scored higher. I guess the country just hasn’t liked the candidates, or something. It’s not like any election was ever stolen or rigged so a Rep would win it. /snark

    I turned 18 in 1980, and I voted for reagan and registered Republican. I haven’t changed my party designation on my registration since.I didn’t as much leave the Republicans as they left me. But suffice it to say, as God is my witness, I shall never vote republican again. Though I do tend to vote in the Republican primary, trying to keep out some of the more odious candidates from the general. Hey, it sometimes works. you guys may think Lamar Alexander is bad, but it would have been worse had Ed Bryant won the primary. Your welcomed. LOL

  • Too bad so many young people can’t be bothered to vote.

    I always said that if there was a draft the Republicans would be extinct by now.

  • “Too bad so many young people can’t be bothered to vote.”

    excellent observation.

  • “Too bad so many young people can’t be bothered to vote.” – Racerx

    excellent observation – just bill

    Of course the point of the original post is that they won’t remain young, but a large number of them will remain with teh Democratic Party.

    “The good news, of course, is that people are brand loyal. Once they make up their minds in their twenties which party they like better, they generally stick with it”

  • Don’t underestimate the blogs role in this. I used to think universal healthcare was a bad idea when I was younger-i’m 20 now- because of my media brainwashing. But thank’s to Kevin and Steve I know better!

  • “Too bad so many young people can’t be bothered to vote.”

    Actually this group was polling about past voting habits and 57% of those who were eligible to vote in the 2006 midterm election and 67% of those eligible in 2004 did so. Moreover, 69% say they are “almost certain” they will vote in 2008, with 14% saying “probably”, and 7% “50-50”.

    I think that beats the population at large. The “young people don’t vote” meme has been around a long time and it isn’t particularly true anymore.

  • I’ve seen several long-term forecasts lately that suggest Dems are in trouble over the next couple of decades. People are moving away from “blue” strongholds (particularly in the Northeast), and relocating to “red” states that will grow in electoral significance. — CB

    Wishful thinking on the part of RepubliKKKlans 🙂

    It was thanks to the (urban and suburban) re-settlers — mostly youngish and mostly techie — that Virginia has gone purple in ’06. I sometimes wonder whether Warner’s (Mark) policies — of promoting the tech industries and seducing, with jobs, the young ones into relocating here — were, at least in part, intended to strenghen the Dem hold on VA.

    And the young ones are probably more politically active and Dem-leaning than we’re aware. It’s the cell-phone generation; many of them don’t even have landlines, so can’t be polled (or annoyed by robocalls, either).

  • The migration of population from blue states to red is not having a negative effect on progressive politics. If anything, the opposite is true. I moved from Iowa to Montana a few years ago, and it would have been hard to imagine Conrad Burns being unseated (although he did a lot of the work himself). The red rural counties are literally dying away and the western valleys are experiencing immigration of college-educated professionals (who tend to lean Democratic) from the Midwest and West Coast.

  • “Believe me, we are trying! I moved to Charlotte, NC about 5 years ago. There are plenty of us coming from up North, but we are greatly outnumbered. The last time I saw a map of the red vs. blue counties in the state we were a blue one surrounded by lots and lots of red ones!”

    Fortunately, it’s one vote per person, not one vote per acre or one vote per county. Mecklenburg County mas many more people than the surrounding counties. Most states show islands of blue in a sea of red.

  • I wonder if some of this trend is caused by first-hand experience with College Republicans.

  • Wishful thinking on the part of RepubliKKKlans

    libra

    shows what happens you’re a liberal who sits in your underwear all day and night glued to a computer blogging away in ur parents basement or garage.

  • KTinOhio@15

    You nailed it.
    Maryland is bulletproof BLUE, but 19 of 23 counties are red.
    Just so happens the 4 that are Blue have lots of people.

    If square miles voted, sure we’d be red.

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