As impressive as Mike Huckabee’s nine-point win in the Iowa caucuses was last night, in the minds of most of the political world, it seems to come with something of an asterisk — he won because religious right voters have a huge influence in Iowa, an influence that doesn’t exist everywhere else. Huckabee succeeded, but he also allowed himself to be defined — he’s the Evangelical Candidate.
Apparently aware of the limits of such a label, the Huckabee campaign is apparently trying to push the narrative in the other direction.
Huckabee campaign manager Chip Saltzman and national chairman Ed Rollins discussed the future of the campaign in a press conference after the Huckabee victory party.
Saltzman called the win “an absolutely game-changing moment for presidential politics.” He downplayed the role of evangelical voters, saying Huckabee attracted fiscal conservatives and other Republican caucus votes.
Nice try, but one hovering bookcase/cross later, it’s a little late for that.
Indeed, most observers seem to be interpreting the results in an entirely different, and far more accurate way — last night, the religious right flexed its muscles, and reminded the GOP establishment that it’s still not content to be ignored.
Tom Schaller noted:
Following two generations of ever-widening clout by Christian conservatives, last night’s convincing victory by former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee provided a warning to the establishment wing of the national Republican Party that it may no longer be able to pass off its preferred candidates to the party’s most loyal supporters. In this largely-white, rural heartland state, where insurgent conservative candidates of the past have done well but usually finish second, Huckabee’s evangelical-led, 34 percent to 25 percent Bible-thumping of former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney sends to national party leaders a powerful signal that evangelical votes cannot be taken for granted.
In the WSJ, Gerald F. Seib added:
So much for the idea that evangelical Christians are a dispirited and declining force in the Republican party.
Last night they showed up in force — in stunning force, actually — in Iowa’s caucuses. They were the power that made a winner of former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee. And they now pose a challenge for Mitt Romney, Rudy Giuliani and John McCain — for every other serious contender, in other words.
Some six in 10 Republican caucus-goers described themselves as born-again or evangelical Christians, entrance polls showed. Almost half of them voted for Mr. Huckabee. Just two in 10 voted for former Massachusetts Gov. Romney. In a very real sense, evangelical voters, as much as Mr. Huckabee, won Iowa’s caucuses on the Republican side.
But there’s a reason Huckabee’s victory, unlike Obama’s, is not propelling him to frontrunner status — everyone, including every political reporter and the entire Republican establishment — knows full well that the religious right’s numbers are weaker elsewhere, and Huckabee’s support with the rest of the GOP’s factions is underwhelming, at best.
It’s certainly possible that Huckabee will capitalize on last night’s success and ride the wave quite a bit longer, but I honestly don’t see him much closer to winning the nomination than he was 24 hours ago at this time.