‘The Man Who Knows Too Little’

Yesterday, The Note mentioned the revelations that Rudy Giuliani was effectively forced to quit the Iraq Study Group, but downplayed the significance of the story. As far as the political world was concerned, The Note said, the disclosure “land[ed] with a thud.”

I’m not quite sure what that means. The media blew off an important story for unclear reasons. The “thud” isn’t the story landing on unconcerned reporters’ desks; the “thud” should be the credibility of the political press corps taking yet another hit.

Taking another look at the story, one of the nagging questions is why, exactly, Giuliani chose money over public service on the most pressing issue of our time. The only explanation that is easily ruled out is the one Giuliani has offered — he was thinking about running for president. (On March 15, 2006, a reporter asked James Baker if Giuliani’s presidential bid would undermine the ISG’s credibility. Baker said, “I don’t think that’s going to affect the quality of his service on the Commission.’)

It seems to me there are two principal explanations for what happened: 1) Giuliani didn’t realize the ISG planned to do real foreign-policy work, so he bailed out of a combination of laziness and ignorance; or 2) Giuliani valued lucrative pay days over shaping war policy alternatives.

Slate’s Fred Kaplan makes a strong case for the latter.

Baker gave Giuliani an ultimatum: Start showing up for sessions, or quit. On May 24, he quit, noting in a letter (provided to Gordon) that prior commitments prevented him from giving the panel his “full and active participation.” … Meanwhile, Giuliani was raking in exorbitant speaking fees around this time — according to Gordon, $11.4 million in the course of 14 months, $1.7 million for 20 speeches during the monthlong period that coincided with the Baker-Hamilton sessions.

Not that there’s anything wrong with that. I doubt that I would have forgone six figures of easy income for the privilege of yakking about Iraq with a roomful of graybeards all day long. Then again, I wasn’t about to run for president — the highest office of public service — on a resume bereft of a single foreign-policy credential.

Rudy’s choice — to go for the money — speaks proverbial volumes about his priorities…. [G]iven a chance to elevate his standing, serve the country, and get educated on the nation’s most pressing issue — Rudy went for the money.

But Giuliani’s priorities aren’t the only problem here. Kaplan went on to explain that Giuliani is … how does one put this gently … something of a buffoon when it comes to foreign policy.

The fact is, Giuliani has no idea what he’s talking about. On the campaign trail he says that the terrorist threat “is something I understand better than anyone else running for president.” As the mayor of New York City on Sept. 11, 2001, he may have lived more intimately with the consequences of terrorism, but this has no bearing on his inexperience or his scant insight in the realm of foreign policy. He is, in fact, that most dangerous would-be world leader: a man who doesn’t seem to know how much he doesn’t know.

Well said. Indeed, we’ve had a certain occupant of the Oval Office who suffers from exactly the same condition for the last eight years — and it has not served anyone’s interests well (except, perhaps, America’s enemies).

Better yet, Kevin Drum notes there’s even a clinical name for this phenomenon: the Dunning-Kruger Effect. “Dunning and Kruger, in a famous series of tests, found that ‘Incompetent individuals, compared with their more competent peers, will dramatically overestimate their ability and performance relative to objective criteria.’ Also: ‘They will be less able than their more competent peers to recognize competence when they see it — be it their own or anyone else’s.'”

As for Giuliani, Kaplan concluded, “His shrugged blow-off of Baker-Hamilton offers a glimpse at the darker side of America’s Mayor: that he’s in it not for the country, but for himself.” Let’s hope this realization doesn’t land with a “thud” in the national media.

Giuliani can name the General. “General.”

  • it also seems that he’s very much like our current president. not only doesn’t he know anything, but he also has no interest in learning anything.

  • “As the mayor of NYC on Sept 11, 2001…”

    A selfish asshole with a martyr’s complex. Just fucking get over yourself Roodee.

    Very good analysis by Kevin Drum. The Dunning-Kruger Effect should be Bushie Disease as pretty much the whole fucking lot of them have it.

  • the credibility of the political press corps taking yet another hit.

    They have credibility? Who knew?

  • This semi-infatuation with Rudy is not going to last much longer; I look for it to evaporate as soon as Fred Thompson makes his candidacy official. After 6 years of a president who has proven the danger of bumper-sticker rhetoric as policy, America is not going to elect another empty suit.

    The media, on the other hand, will be the last ones to get the message – maybe it takes a while to round everyone up to get a consensus on which candidate smells better – and shifting their crush from Rudy to Fred will not be a pivot from form to substance.

    But Rudy? He’s got about 2 more weeks, and then all the Old Spice in the world will not be enough to hypnotize the media.

  • We live in Dunning-Kruger Land.

    So many voters long for certainty, and the only people offering it are the morons and/or posers. The media rarely explains the nuances necessary to make rational choices, and if they do they’re ignored by the average guy on the street. Sorry, no time, I’ve got to go to my second job, and did you see American Idol last night? And in the world of modern “journalism”, the advertisements pay for everything, and the dumber the mark the more effective the ad campaign, so guess who’s the target audience?

    According to Ghouliani’s handlers (and most of the others) candidates are supposed to act like they know exactly what to do. They are literally Confidence Men. Can we ever hope for a day when people will value uncertainty when it’s the appropriate response? Or are we spiraling down into a black hole where nothing can escape?

  • Former Dan @ 3 seems to have hit on it with the comparison to the Shrub admin as far as Der Shrub being incurious. Frontline Endgame from PBS from Tuesday was pretty good. Tom Ricks made the comment that Cheney is the “White whale” that Shrub has to meet with after talking to advisors on Iraq policy. It appears that Cheney has to be briefed separately by the same advisors, probably because he actually asks the advisors questions. Then, Cheney meets with Shrub and Shrub “decides” what to do. Maybe Cheney is more of an interpreter that speaks the same language used on the planet Shrub lives on and that is why Cheney’s office is exempt from oversight. Would the Dunning-Kruger Effect account for the CRS (“can’t remember shit”, described by General Taguba in New Yorker article) exhibited by many in Shrub’s madmin. now under investigation. Shrub manages to balance incompetence with arrogance(“will dramatically overestimate their ability and performance relative to objective criteria”) and he feels he is successful at it. ’

  • It wasn’t like Rudy was skipping ISG meetings because his boss told him “If you miss another shift because of your pointy-headed meetings, you can kiss your greeter job at WalMart goodbye”, or because he had a sick child and needed to pick up another part time job to pay for the insurance. No, Rudy was piling millions on top of millions.

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