My friend Tom Schaller raised an important point two weeks ago about fatalities in Iraq:
The number of Americans killed in Iraq during 2004 now exceeds the number killed in 2003.
More remarkably, the 488 killed thus far this year died in just 239 days (2.04 daily average), while the 482 killed last year died during 287 days in 2003 (1.68 daily average). That means that not only has 2004 been bloodier than 2003 in absolute terms, but in relative terms as well.
Today, Tom returns to the subject with an observation that is just as, if not more, significant. There were 269 days from the start of the war to the capture of Saddam Hussein, an event which was supposed to help quell the insurgency. There have also been 269 days between that arrest and today. Is the situation in Iraq getting safer? More stable? Alas, as Tom noticed, the answer is clearly no.
Before capture: 459 American fatalities (1.71/day)
After capture: 539 American fatalities (2.00/day)
This is not a matter of “he said, she said” wherein FOX News can bring somebody in from both sides to debate what, exactly, constitutes a cardinal number, and thus whether, in our postmodern world, 539 might somehow actually be lower than 459. No, it’s a ineluctable fact: The number of fatalities and, thus, the average daily rate of casualties is higher post-capture than pre-capture.
Every landmark occasion is touted as the turning point that will lead to progress in Iraq, but tragically, each fails to live up to the administration’s hype. Saddam’s capture was going to make Iraq more secure, except it hasn’t. The June 28 “hand-off” was going to make everything better, but it hasn’t — August was one of the deadliest months for U.S. casualties since the invasion, and September is off to a horrific start.
It’s not about what makes delegates at the Republican convention feel better; it’s about the truth. The number of flag-draped coffins returning from Iraq — which Bush refuses to let us see — are increasing as the war keeps getting worse.
Or as Tom put it: “If fatalities are any indication, there is progress in Iraq alright: Progressively higher numbers of Americans killed…no matter how one slices the data.”