Guest Post by Morbo
The New Hampshire primary results have certainly shaken things up. I can’t say that’s a bad thing. I really didn’t want the Democratic contest to be over with by Groundhog Day. Call me crazy, but I was hoping to hear from the residents of more than two states before we call it a day.
But here’s one thing that hasn’t changed: Some progressives remain guilty of being overconfident. It is the curse of our species. I remember talking to Democrats on the eve of the 2004 election who were busy planning their John Kerry victory parties.
We’re doing it again. I keep seeing claims in print and on the web that not only is the 2008 presidential election a lock for the Democrats but the Republican Party is on the verge of collapse. All of their candidates have problems and certain factions won’t vote for certain candidates and blah, blah, blah.
Oddly enough, even some conservatives are parroting this line. Recently, Michael Tomasky, editor of the Manchester (U.K.) Guardian’s website wrote:
That the “conservative base” is dissatisfied with the GOP field is probably the single most common observation of this presidential campaign season. The second most common observation is probably that the Republican candidate, whoever it turns out to be, is doomed to defeat. National Review ran a recent cover story positing not only that the GOP is likely to lose the presidency in 2008, but that the loss may mark the beginning of a long period of wandering in the wilderness as the party gropes to redefine itself after George W. Bush’s calamitous tenure.
The collapse of the GOP is a common liberal fantasy — and I’m convinced some right-wingers are egging it on just to make us overconfident. Let’s not fall for it. The Republicans aren’t going anywhere. And they certainly have a decent shot at retaining the White House this year.
I know John McCain is all the rage this week, but let’s look at how a candidate who is perceived to be even weaker could win — Mike Huckabee. Let’s say he rebounds on Feb. 5 and is nominated by the Republican Party. Progressives rejoice, right? He’s ignorant on foreign policy, denies modern science and is a religious extremist. Plus, other elements in the Republican Party don’t like him and will do him in. That’s the liberal fantasy.
Here’s the reality: None of that has to count against him. Yes, Huckabee is ignorant on foreign policy. To that the average American says, “So what?” Can you name a president worse on this question than George W. Bush? Foreign policy issues rarely drive a presidential campaign. They ought to, but the fact is they don’t. One would think they would this year of all years — but polls show Iraq fading as an issue as violence there drops. (So typical of us!)
You say Huckabee’s too stupid to be elected? Again, please take a look at the current occupant of the White House. Yes, Huckabee rejects evolution. So do more than half of all Americans.
But Huckabee’s a religious fanatic, right? Sure, to you and me. Most Americans won’t see him that way or won’t care. Americans endorse the separation of church and state in principle. Practice is another matter. Most people simply aren’t alarmed by government-sponsored religious displays, prayer in public schools or before government meetings, candidates that drone on endlessly about Jesus and so on. Americans ought to be alarmed about this stuff, but they’re not.
Stop fantasizing that establishment Republicans will do in Huckabee. Despite its repellant policies, the modern GOP has great party discipline. It’s the one thing I admire about them. The Republican Party is not about forming circular firing squads. Sure, the factions snipe and pick at one another during the primary season, but when all is said and done, they will coalesce around their nominee. Huckabee will bow before Grover Norquist, kiss his foot and sign some type of “no new taxes” pledge. The tax hating, “deregulate-or-die” types will climb aboard and turn on the money faucet. (As the Carpetbagger pointed out this week, the right’s “Huckabee Panic” is already starting to fade. Meanwhile, there’s already talk in progressive circles about refusing to support Hillary Clinton if she knocks out Barack Obama or vice versa. Real smart. Yep, we’ll just let a Republican replace Supreme Court Justice John Paul Stevens — who, as I keep reminding anyone with ears, will turn eighty-friggin’-eight years old on April 20.)
Huckabee has his charms. I’ve heard him speak, and he’s very good. He’s funny, poised and relaxed. He comes across as an “everyman.” His back story is appealing. Like Bill Clinton, he grew up in strained circumstances and made good. Huckabee used to be overweight but managed to shed 110 pounds. He’s not a fuddy-duddy Baptist. He plays the bass guitar in a rock band! He also has the alarming ability to appear to be moderate.
Remember, a disturbing number of voters in this country make their decision not on who’s best qualified but on which candidate seems nicer and more fun, the kind of person you’d like to have a beer or talk about fishing with. If mastery of policy mattered, the Democrats would have won the last two elections without breaking a sweat.
Just to be clear, I can’t stand Huckabee. He’s woefully inexperienced and completely unqualified to be president. And yes, he really is a religious fanatic. The thought of Huckabee naming Supreme Court justices keeps me awake at night. It annoys me to no end that many Americans will make their decision on personality and not positions — but that’s what they do.
If Huckabee gets the nod, many Americans will be meeting him for the first time because, believe it or not, most people in this country have not been glued to political blogs following every twist and turn of the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary for the past five months. I love you all, but we’re wonks and eat this stuff up; most other folks are talking about Brittney Spears’ kid sister getting pregnant.
These folks are not reading The New York Times or the Daily Kos. They are (maybe) reading the Daily Dispatch-Gazette-Journal-News-Leader-Bulletin-Herald-Tribune or whatever is published in their town, which runs the political news in the form of wire copy that may or may not be above the fold. More likely, they aren’t reading any news at all, and they aren’t tuned in to CNN or even the Fox News Channel every day.
Finally, you have not even begun to see what the Republican smear machine will do to the Democratic nominee, no matter who it is. Recently, there has been some speculation that the Voldemorts of the GOP might be afraid to come after Obama since he’s African American. Please. This is a party that did not hesitate to smear a wheelchair-bound hero of the Vietnam War as soft on terrorism. These people are evil. Their only goal is to win. They will do, say and spend whatever it takes to make that happen. Do you ever wonder why Republican political attacks never seem to hit bottom? Do you marvel at how they manage to keep going lower and lower? It’s because for the GOP, there is no bottom.
Any Democrat who thinks a contest against Huckabee (or Romney or McCain or Giuliani) would be a cakewalk or that voters are so fed up with Republican rule that we could nominate Ralph Wiggum and still win is living in Liberal Fantasyland. Leave that place. You want to win? Do two things: Roll up your sleeves and fight for it and be prepared on Nov. 4 to pull the lever marked “D” even if the candidate you’re backing right now isn’t on the ballot.
