When one thinks of Bush’s problems with recruiting, it’s usually about the ongoing difficulties military recruiters are having in finding volunteers for the armed forces. Closer to home, Bush isn’t having much success finding a few good men and women to take on political service either.
Republican politicians in multiple states have recently decided not to run for Senate next year, stirring anxiety among Washington operatives about the effectiveness of the party’s recruiting efforts and whether this signals a broader decline in GOP congressional prospects.
Prominent Republicans have passed up races in North Dakota and West Virginia, both GOP-leaning states with potentially vulnerable Democratic incumbents. Earlier, Republican recruiters on Capitol Hill and at the White House failed to lure their first choices to run in Florida, Michigan and Vermont.
These setbacks have prompted grumbling. Some Republican operatives, including some who work closely with the White House, privately point to what they regard as a lackluster performance by Sen. Elizabeth Dole (N.C.) as chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, the group that heads fundraising and candidate recruitment for GOP senators.
But some strategists more sympathetic to Dole point the finger right back. With an unpopular war in Iraq, ethical controversies shadowing top Republicans in the House and Senate, and President Bush suffering the lowest approval ratings of his presidency, the waters look less inviting to politicians deciding whether to plunge into an election bid. Additionally, some Capitol Hill operatives complain that preoccupied senior White House officials have been less engaged in candidate recruitment than they were for the 2002 and 2004 elections.
This offers a stunning contrast. As David Weigel recently noted, in 2002, Bush effectively ordered Saxby Chambliss (Georgia), Norm Coleman (Minnesota), Jim Talent (Missouri), and John Thune (South Dakota) to run against incumbent Dems for the Senate. Even though several of them had other ideas for the cycle, they all did as they were told — and won. Two years later, Mel Martinez (Florida) and Richard Burr (North Carolina) followed the same pattern.
This year, not so much.
In North Dakota, the White House went all out to lure Gov. John Hoeven (R) into a race against Sen. Kent Conrad (D), even sending Karl Rove out to lean on him personally. Hoevan took a pass. In West Virginia, Rep. Shelly Moore Capito (R) faced similar pressure, but also rebuffed White House requests. In Florida, the Bush gang told Katherine Harris to stay out of the race and told Florida House Speaker Allan Bense (R) to get in — both ignored the demands.
Capito said her decision wasn’t affected by Bush’s low public approval ratings, but she acknowledged that the president might not be as much of an asset if she had made a Senate run as he was for her in the past.
“In 2002, when I ran for my second term, the president came in and gave me a 5 [percentage] point bump up in the polls,” Capito said. “Whether he has the ability to bump someone up at this point is a valid question.”
It’s a “valid question” being asked by Republicans across the country, all of whom see a Republican president and Republican Congress with approval ratings in the 30s. As Republican pollster Tony Fabrizio said, “[Candidates] aren’t stupid. They see the political landscape. You are asking them to make a huge personal sacrifice. It’s a lot easier to make that sacrifice if you think there’s a rainbow at the end.”
Bush used to be able to, at a minimum, offer a compelling pitch; now he can’t. A few criminal scandals and lame-duck status will do that to you.
Post Script: Just to add salt to the GOP’s wound, I thought it also might be worth mentioning that Dems’ recruiting has gone pretty darn well for the midterm cycle, with party officials getting the candidates they wanted in Missouri (Claire McCaskill), Arizona (Jim Pederson), Pennsylvania (Bob Casey Jr.), and finding themselves with top-tier candidates in primaries in states such as Ohio (Hacket, Brown) and Montana (Morrison, Tester, Wilkes).