The party of values and moderates

November 8, 2005

The WaPo recently noted that the Republicans’ troubles of late have been a blessing for Dems. The public isn’t thrilled about DC generally, but clearly one party is suffering more than the other. In fact, as far as the Post is concerned, it’s starting to look a bit like 1994.

Two-thirds of those surveyed by The Post and ABC News said the country is heading in the wrong direction. Asked whom they were likely to support in next year’s House elections, 52 percent of registered voters said the Democratic candidate, while 37 percent said the Republican. While this testing of generic preferences is not always a reliable indicator of elections, the result suggests that Republicans for now are in trouble.

Republicans may find solace in the fact that 60 percent of those surveyed approved of the job their own House member is doing — but that, too, was the case one year before the 1994 election. Then the percentage declined throughout 1994; if the same happens next year, Republicans will be in serious trouble.

In another indication of unrest, a majority now say they have little or no confidence in the government in Washington to solve problems, another statistic that is similar to findings at this point 12 years ago. Confidence deteriorated steadily throughout 1994.

When asked which party they trusted to handle the main problems facing the nation, registered voters preferred Democrats by 49 percent to 38 percent. On the eve of the 2002 midterms, when the GOP defied historical trends by gaining House and Senate seats, Republicans led on that question among those most likely to vote by 51 percent to 39 percent.

To be sure, the same report said many voters see the Dems are “disorganized” and “lacking in clear ideas.” But the data also shows those same voters are prepared to overlook these concerns because they don’t like what they’re seeing from the GOP.

One thing the analysis also showed is that talk of Dems needing to move to the political center is misplaced. For a clear majority, the party is already there.

As my friend Paul Waldman noted yesterday, the details of the Post poll produced some compelling results about which party is in tune with the public’s standards.

Which party…?

Better represents your own personal values: Democrats 50%, Republicans 40%

Is more concerned with the needs of people like you: Democrats 56%, Republicans 33%

Is more open to the ideas of people who are political moderates: Democrats 60%, Republicans 24%

That’s right; in terms of being open to the middle, Dems enjoy a two-to-one advantage.

Consider this your morale booster of the day.

But…wait…Pat Robertson, James Dobson, Tom Delay, Rush Limbaugh…they all tell me…majority supports…GOP…something…wrong…head…dizzy….smell…wood… burning…brain…KA-POW!!! (thud, body hits floor)

  • Bubba! Damnit! I told you not to think about this stuff. The pastor already told us who to vote for; why did you have to go and THINK?!?!

  • Y’all are great, man. First really big smile I’ve had this week. Thankee kindly! 🙂

  • The country is a agreed that there is (are) problems, serious problems, that the country is headed in the wrong direction on a number of fronts. But, the country is not agreed on the solutions, not agreed that there even should be a solution to any of these problems.

    Iraq: two-thirds agree it is not going well; near sixty percent regard it as an abject failure. But, does anyone want a solution. Logically, there are two possible approaches to resolving the situation in Iraq: 1.) the U.S. withdraws; 2.) the U.S. commits itself to make the necessary effort to pacify Iraq and complete a reconstruction — a huge national undertaking to put a million plus boots on the ground, requiring a draft, and billions in additional aid, etc. People are hardly willing to even discuss either alternative; withdrawal is viewed as precipitating further disaster, while massive effort is dismissed as impossible and/or futile.

    Health care: most people, who are paying attention, realize that there is a massive problem. Giant corporations teeter on the verge of bankruptcy. All the benefits of economic growth to the middle class are being steadily drained away into health “benefits”. Medicare appears headed toward financial collapse. But, propose universal health care, and the country paralyzes itself in fear over a “massive bureaucracy.”

    The economy and globalization: tech support is in India, manufacturing is in China, and wages are stagnant; college costs have skyrocketed and the State universities are morphing into private institutions. But, is there a consensus on whether we should do anything to address the dirction of the economy? Protectionism is dismissed. Worker protections in a free trade agreement is anathema to Bush, but not worthy of notice in the news media.

    News Media: one thing even the Right agrees with, is that the news media sucks. The news media has been consolidated into the hands of a very few giant corporations; liberals are increasingly excluded from the presentation of opinion; the presentation of news is profoundedly biased in favor of corporate right-wing views, not just on Fox, but CNN, in the Tribune and Gannett papers, and on the Sinclairs, Clear Channels, etc. But, with everyone complaining about the news media, there is a tendency to confuse it with the weather, something about which we do not feel it necessary to do anything.

    In the case of an individual, such a depressive malaise could be treated with drugs, some kind of cognitive talk therapy (i.e. sophisticated, empathic pep talks), and time. I guess we cannot give the country drugs, but maybe we need some time to recover our nerve, our faith in the possibility of effective action.

    Maybe, the hostility to Democrats simply reflects the country’s current loss of nerve. Maybe, Democrats should be more empathic about the sense that there is nothing we can do, which will be effective. Maybe, we need time to believe that anyone or any policy will be effective.

  • Mr. Parade meet Mr. Rain. Sorry but despite my name, I am not always smiley. A year before the ’04 elections we all were pretty optimistic about the results of that election. Then came the swift boaters et al. These are smart, ruthless people. A lot can happen in a year. We can’t let up because of favorable poll trends.

  • I hope it looks like 1994. But instead it looks a lot more to me like 1986.

    See, our timing is wrong. The way to cripple a president is to attack him in the first year of his FIRST term, not of his second and last, lame-duck term.

    Probably not much we could have done about this, and better late than never, but still.

  • Smiley is right.

    The other thing that worked in 1994 was the Republican attack machine.

    AFAIK, we ain’t got one.

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