Traditionally, presidential candidates wait to announce their running mates until their party’s national convention. As a matter of history, it’s been a necessity, since the parties weren’t always sure who the nominee would be until the convention chose him. Now, it’s more of an election-year tradition.
I strongly believe, however, that it’s a tradition worth breaking, especially in elections when the incumbent is running for a second term.
There are indications that Kerry will announce his choice well in advance of the DNC in Boston this July.
The Wall Street Journal reported a few weeks ago, for example, several Kerry strategists expect the candidate to pick a VP choice “soon,” to help the ticket in “campaigning and fund-raising.”
Likewise, the Washington Post cited a Kerry advisor today as saying the pick could come as early as May and would “certainly” come in advance of the convention. One gets the impression that if the vetting process wasn’t so exhaustive, the announcement would come even sooner.
The New Republic’s Ryan Lizza had a terrific piece yesterday outlining the advantages and disadvantages of what’s labeled the “Lehane plan,” because it was an idea recommended by Chris Lehane in the Gore campaign in 2000 (though Gore ultimately rejected it).
There are several pluses to the Lehane plan. First of all it would help recreate some of the drama of the primaries that has so benefited Democrats. The political press is about to pivot hard from covering the cheery Kerry/Edwards road show to covering the Bush campaign’s impending attacks on Kerry. Choosing a running mate this spring could arrest some of the negative momentum Kerry is about to face.
More practically, announcing a running mate now would add two new bodies to campaign for Kerry. Bush will have Dick and Lynne Cheney out stumping for him almost every day. Why not equalize things? Sure, Kerry’s surrogates can campaign for him in various battleground states, but they can’t generate the same amount of excitement as a bona fide vice presidential candidate.
Having a running mate in the spring would also be a boon for fundraising. Joe Lieberman raised millions of dollars after he joined the ticket in 2000. But all the money was for the DNC because Gore accepted federal matching funds to wage the general election battle. What Kerry needs is someone with star power who can raise lots of money for him right now when he is facing an enormous cash disadvantage compared to Bush. The general election doesn’t start after the convention; it starts today.
I agree with all of these enthusiastically. The White House certainly isn’t waiting for the campaign season to start. They know it’s already begun and are campaigning aggressively right now. The sooner the Dem ticket is solidified, the sooner we can match up against the incumbents (and their wives) on the campaign trail.
Of course, Lizza notes two potential drawbacks.
The best argument against picking a veep now is that Kerry would essentially be firing his most powerful ammunition much too early. The excitement surrounding Kerry’s choice is one of the main factors that will give him a bounce out of the convention and going into the final stretch of the election. This argument was more persuasive in 2000 when Gore knew that Bush would pick his running mate at the convention. Picking early in 2000 was like unilaterally disarming. But this time, with Cheney already on board, there will be no such drama for the Republicans.
The other argument against picking early is that in between now and July, Kerry’s political needs could change drastically. John Edwards might seem like a great idea in March, but what if polling in July shows that Bob Graham really would assure victory in Florida?
These are both fair points, but neither one is completely persuasive. First, we’re not really talking about announcing the choice today, but rather, sometime in May. Lizza’s right, the selection, if it coincides with the convention, could give Kerry a poll “bounce” going into the final stretch. But as I see it, naming the running mate in May gives Kerry two bounces — one with the pick and the other with the convention in July. It’s a win-win!
Second, needs for the ticket can change over time, but I think we pretty much know what’s going to drive this campaign through the Fall. It’s not difficult for Kerry to survey the current political landscape and determine who’ll best complement his broader campaign plan. Bush has his strengths and weaknesses, there are obvious swing states, and there are certain constituencies that need to be targeted. It’s highly unlikely that any of this will change dramatically between now and July.
And perhaps the best reason of all to pick someone early? The suspense is killing me.