The NYT article I was writing about earlier included one stunning paragraph that seems to have gone largely unnoticed.
For the first time, military officers also disclosed that the United States could begin withdrawing its 138,000 troops from Iraq in July, if Iraqi security forces have established control and the threats plaguing Iraq now have lessened.
This couldn’t be any more bizarre. The speculation about troop withdrawal followed explanations from those same military officers, in the very same article, that Iraqi insurgents have more individual fighters have “far greater financial resources than previously estimated” and emphasized that the “intimidation factor” is undermining our efforts on the ground.
Perhaps most disturbing, they said, is the militants’ campaign of intimidation to silence thousands of Iraqis and undermine the government through assassinations, kidnappings, beheadings and car bombings. New gangs specializing in hostage-taking are entering Iraq, intelligence reports indicate.
Indeed, those who disclosed that we could begin withdrawing our troops by July if the Iraqi security forces have “established control” simultaneously acknowledge that this Iraqi fighting force will be led by “largely untested generals” and has “been penetrated by spies for the insurgents.”
So, why on earth would these leaders start speculating about bringing our troops home by next summer? I have a hunch this is one of the least effective trial balloons of the Bush presidency.
Remember, John Kerry, in late September, gave a terrific speech in which he talked about the circumstances that would make it possible to withdraw our troops.
“If the President would move in this direction … if he would bring in more help from other countries to provide resources and forces … train the Iraqis to provide their own security …develop a reconstruction plan that brings real benefits to the Iraqi people … and take the steps necessary to hold credible elections next year … we could begin to withdraw U.S. forces starting next summer and realistically aim to bring all our troops home within the next four years.”
Bush was outraged by the suggestion and said Kerry’s remarks were irresponsible.
“I know putting artificial deadlines won’t work. My opponent at one time said, ‘Well, get me elected, I’ll have them out of there in six months.’ You can’t do that and expect to win the war on terror.”
Putting aside the obvious mischaracterization of Kerry’s comments, Bush rejected the very idea of troop withdrawal by next summer. And now, with the president’s campaign struggling and the prospect of losing becoming increasingly real, all of a sudden top military leaders are talking openly with the New York Times, saying that we might be able to start bringing home 138,000 troops from Iraq in July. Last month, Bush thought such comments told terrorists that they just need to wait a few months and then they’d have free reign. Now, apparently, Bush doesn’t mind.
Maybe BC04 expected Kerry to take the bait and start talking about whether Bush can bring the troops home. Maybe Rove & Co. hoped the rest of the media would pick up on this and start speculating about troop withdrawal, which might help give Bush a bump in the polls.
In either case, no one seemed to have noticed. In fact, anyone who read the NYT article saw a depressing analysis of generals who, like Colin Powell, think the insurgents are getting stronger, not weaker, and the situation in Iraq deteriorating.
If this was intended to be a trial balloon, it was apparently made of lead.