Taking a break, for just a moment, from the race for the White House, let’s turn our attention to the race for control of an institution at the other end of Pennsylvania Avenue: the Senate.
Since Bush took office nearly four years ago, the chamber has been as closely divided as it’s ever been for any presidential administration. Both Dems and the GOP know the Senate is up for grabs this year, but objectively speaking, as Chuck Todd noted today at the National Journal’s site, the Dems have a tougher time ahead.
Right now, the Senate has 51 Republicans, 48 Dems, and an Independent. Since Jim Jeffords (Vt.) caucuses with the Dems and Zell Miller (Ga.) lost his marbles a few years back, for all intents and purposes, the chamber is really 52-48, in the GOP’s favor.
There are 34 seats up this year, and by any reasonable standard, Dems are at a disadvantage. Not only are Dems starting off in the minority, but they have to defend 19 seats, while Republicans are defending 15. Dems have to deal with five incumbents who are retiring, while the Republicans have three.
Do the Dems have solid opportunities for some pick-ups this year? You bet. Enough of them to get the majority back? Maybe.
My opinion may be in the minority right now, but I think it’s an attainable goal.
Let’s start by taking the uncompetitive races off the table. Republicans would probably love nothing more than giving incumbents like Harry Reid (Nev.) and Pat Leahy (Vt.) a run for their money, but it’s not going to happen. Likewise, Dems would be thrilled to see Richard Shelby’s (Ala.) and Mike Crapo’s (Idaho) seats change hands, but it’s hard to see how that’s even remotely possible.
Next, let’s set our parameters here. The Dems will need to get to 50 seats if Kerry wins to be in the “majority” or 51 seats if Bush wins a second term. (Since Kerry is a sitting senator, it can get a little complicated. If Kerry beats Bush, Dems need to go +2 on Election Day and then win a Massachusetts special election.)
Here’s the official Carpetbagger look at the 10 most competitive Senate races, in alphabetical order:
Alaska — Former Gov. Tony Knowles (D) is looking pretty good right now, leading sort-of incumbent Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R) in most recent polls. Murkowski got the seat when her father became governor and handed it to her, which Alaskans seem to resent. It’s a Republican state, but I consider this one leaning Dem.
Colorado — Attorney General Ken Salazar (D) will face beer-guy Peter Coors (R) and it looks to be leaning towards another key Dem pick-up opportunity.
Florida — The nation’s strangest state is still up in the air because the parties’ primaries haven’t happened yet and we don’t know who the candidates will be. Expect the GOP to pick former HUD Secretary Mel Martinez and the Dems to go with former state Education Secretary Betty Castor. This one’s a toss-up. The primary is Aug. 31.
Georgia — The GOP’s best pick-up opportunity. Rep. Johnny Isakson (R) is strongly favored to beat Rep. Denise Majette (D) for Zell Miller’s old seat.
Illinois — It’s probably not fair to really call this one “competitive,” but since it’s an open seat, I’m throwing it in here. There’s no mystery to this race — Alan Keyes will lose, Barack Obama will win. It’s solid Dem and a definite Dem pick-up.
Louisiana — Rep. David Vitter (R) and Rep. Chris John (D) will face of in one of the nation’s most competitive, and hardest to predict, Senate contests. Louisiana has a funky system that bypasses primaries altogether, so polls are misleading. Vitter is leading because he’s not facing any other Republicans, while John is one of a few Dems. These two will, no doubt, face each other in a run-off. Too close to call; it’s another toss-up.
North Carolina — Erskine Bowles (D) has been doing everything right against Rep. Richard Burr (R). The polls look great. I’d say it’s definitely leaning Dem.
Oklahoma — In this open seat race, Rep. Brad Carson (D) continues to look strong, taking on former Rep. Tom Coburn (R), who, as luck would have it, is mad as a hatter. Carson, moderate and well-respected statewide, currently has a modest lead in the polls. Like Alaska, it’s a Republican state, but I consider this one to also be leaning Dem.
South Carolina — Inez Tenenbaum was looking strong, but has fallen on tougher times lately. In a GOP state like this, it’s a problem. Rep. Jim DeMint (R) had a bruising primary fight, but has solid poll numbers. I consider it to be leaning towards a GOP pick-up.
South Dakota — Here’s the one that the Republicans want probably more than any other, I just don’t think it’ll work. Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle (D) is taking on former Rep. John Thune (R), who narrowly lost a Senate race two years ago. But that’s the point I can’t get past. Thune barely lost to Tim Johnson, but Daschle is better known, more widely liked, and has more money than Johnson did. I don’t see how Thune will do any better this time than last. I consider this race to be a likely Dem victory.
So, where does that leave us? A Dem incumbent likely to win another term (South Dakota), two toss-ups that are currently in Dem hands (Florida and Louisiana), another Dem likely to keep a seat in Dem hands (North Carolina), four solid Dem pick-up opportunities in current GOP seats (Alaska, Colorado, Oklahoma, and Illinois), and two strong GOP pick-up opportunities in seats currently held by Dems (Georgia and South Carolina).
Given this, it’s by no means out of the question to think the Dems can go +2 with a Kerry victory and control both the White House and the Senate.
Sure, you may call me a dreamer, but I’m not the only one.