The reports before the report

Next week, the White House will unveil the progress report on Iraq, ostensibly written by Gen. David Petraeus and Ambassador Ryan Crocker (but really written by the president’s team), which will no doubt make quite a splash. But in the meantime, we’re seeing the release of several key reports, all of which offer a credible, detailed look at conditions in Iraq.

But how many reports are there? And how can we keep track of which is which? Here’s a rundown from the last week or so.

* The General Accounting Office measured the success of 18 agreed-upon Iraqi benchmarks, created by the Bush administration earlier this year as a way of determining progress with the “surge” policy. The GAO found (.pdf) that Iraq had only completed three of the 18, and concluded there is little hope for the future.

* The Independent Commission on the Security Forces of Iraq, a 20-member commission led by retired Marine Gen. James Jones, measured the quality of the Iraqi Security Forces. The results were discouraging.

Iraq’s army, despite measurable progress, will be unable to take over internal security from U.S. forces in the next 12 to 18 months and “cannot yet meaningfully contribute to denying terrorists safe haven,” according to a report on the Iraqi security forces published today.

The report, prepared by a commission of retired senior U.S. military officers, describes the 25,000-member Iraqi national police force and the Interior Ministry, which controls it, as riddled with sectarianism and corruption. The ministry, it says, is “dysfunctional” and is “a ministry in name only.” The commission recommended that the national police force be disbanded.

* The Congressional Research Service, Congress’ non-partisan research and analysis arm, believes Iraq’s fragile democracy is “collapsing.”

The boycott of the government by certain Shiite and Kurdish political blocs has left Iraq’s leadership hanging by a thread, according to a report by the Congressional Research Service.

The report by CRS, Congress’ research and analysis arm, was completed Aug. 15 for the House and Senate.

“My assessment is that because of the number and breadth of parties boycotting the cabinet, the Iraqi government is in essential collapse,” Kenneth Katzman, the author of the report, said. “That argues against any real prospects for political reconciliation.”

Without a political infrastructure in Iraq, any military progress would be short-lived, he added.

* The U.S. Embassy in Iraq is poised to release a report on the Maliki government, which U.S. officials believe is corrupt to the core.

Maliki’s government is “not capable of even rudimentary enforcement of anticorruption laws,” the report says, and, perhaps worse, the report notes that Maliki’s office has impeded investigations of fraud and crime within the government.

The draft–over 70 pages long–was obtained by The Nation, and it reviews the work (or attempted work) of the Commission on Public Integrity (CPI), an independent Iraqi institution, and other anticorruption agencies within the Iraqi government. Labeled “SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED/Not for distribution to personnel outside of the US Embassy in Baghdad,” the study details a situation in which there is little, if any, prosecution of government theft and sleaze. Moreover, it concludes that corruption is “the norm in many ministries.”

Four independent reports, four more pieces of evidence that the status quo isn’t working.

One wonders why, after all the damage elite opinion makers did to their reputations by blindly backing this war, those serious folks would again bank their relevancy on the success of the surge that is clearly only meant to punt until Bush leaves office.

Perhaps Tom Friedman and the rest hang their hats on the same hopes as the neocons, that by handing this exploded powder keg to the person responsible — or masochistic — enough to want to clean up this mess, they can blame them for bungling Iraq, just as things were turning around. Bush’s DC vindicated! (Or, they’re simply waiting until ethnic cleansing brings about some illusion of stability they can claim credit for).

Hey, MSM: We’re telling you so. Again.

  • …Maliki’s office has impeded investigations of fraud and crime within the government.

    I see Maliki is taking his cues from our Acting President’s Administration. Heckuva job Georgie!

  • If BushCo can crank out enough propaganda to cause confusion — and it appears they’re succeeding — it’s likely they’ll sow sufficient doubt in the public mind that the country will throw up it’s collective hands and follow the leader rather than rise against him. Same thing with Congress and the press.

    The ends continue to justify any and all means.

  • What I find so frustrating is the knowledge that none of this information will be deemed relevant or credible or integral to the discussion because it is not parroting the administration’s message that everything’s working and we just have to hang in there to make sure it succeeds.

    The media is not evincing any skepticism or asking any serious questions of those who are conducting the dog-and-pony shows taking place in Iraq. Whatever the military shows them – the “bustling” markets, the happy faces of Iraqi children – seems to be accepted at face value. It is too dangerous for reporters to venture anywhere on their own, to film what daily life is really like, to talk with Iraqis about what is really going on – but why do they continue to present it to the American people as a reliable measure of the “progress?” The military spokespeople continue to reel off statistics that have been manipulated and re-configured so that they seem to indicate progress – but the media doesn’t ask, and the military doesn’t tell, about the methodology. That they keep changing the definition of what is considered a sectarian killing, so that it appears those deaths are down.

    So, can’t rely on the administration to be honest about how things are going, can’t rely on the media to at least reveal that the administration isn’t being honest, can’t count on the Democrats to do anything – anything – about exerting their power as leverage for getting the truth and bringing this mess to an end.

    So, what are we looking at? Days and days of phony PR, blathering pundits proclaiming that this will put Bush back on track, blathering anchorpeople in Kevlar and khaki allowing the military to paint a rosy picture, Democrats getting all shaky and scared about the funding that we know they will inevitably hand over, with no strings.

    Little did we know that one day, “Don’t ask, Don’t tell” would mean: Media – don’t ask any hard questions; WH/Military – don’t tell the people the truth. Swell.

    I’m at the point where my response to the Democratic leadership is, “Don’t ask me for another red cent until you find your spine, hear what we’re saying, and DO SOMETHING.”

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