Some random thoughts in advance of tonight’s debate, in no particular order:
* I will, for those of you who are interested, be ignoring my usual “no posting on weekends” rule tomorrow to offer some rants about tonight’s debate. I will not, however, offer live-blogging, the idea of which I find completely overwhelming.
* I’ve seen a few suggestions to the contrary, but all of the pressure is on Bush now. He’s had a ridiculously bad week and a half — Bremmer, Duelfer, Rumsfeld, job numbers, poll numbers — and needs to do really well tonight to stop the bleeding. I’m not sure if he’s capable of doing really well.
* Bush may be visibly nervous for a change, the way he was in April during that prime-time press conference that went so poorly. I know it seems like Bush is off in his own little dream world where the economy is strong and Iraq is secure, but when it comes to politics, this guy knows his back his against the wall.
* The one thing working in Bush’s favor right now is that the expectations game is starting to tilt back in a way that benefits him. Before last week’s debate, Bush was the confident president going up against a Dem candidate perceived as wishy washy and unsure of himself. A Time magazine poll showed that Americans expected Bush to win the first debate by a wide margin. All of that’s gone now — Kerry has proven himself as a very capable debater and Bush has reminded everyone how inept he is at answering unscripted questions. People are now expecting less of their president, which will no doubt help Bush tonight.
* Bush will be in something of a quandary over how to go negative. On the one hand, there’s no doubt he will go on the attack. He doesn’t have a choice — Bush has no positive message and hasn’t since the campaign started. On the other hand, negative criticism doesn’t play as well in a townhall format in front of undecided voters. It’ll be interesting to see how Bush handles this.
* Expect Bush’s attacks to be more specific. Last week, he was almost oblique in his references (“mixed messages won’t work” instead of “my opponent’s mixes messages won’t work”). It was probably the conservatives’ number one complaint after last week and I suspect Bush will be far more direct tonight.
* For goodness sakes, don’t expect to see Bush make any strange faces. In fact, I’d bet money that he makes some kind of self-deprecating joke about it.
* I’d also bet money that Kerry will have two themes that’ll he’ll emphasize repeatedly: Bush isn’t in touch with reality and he’s leading an “Excuse Presidency.” There’ll be a question about Iraq, Bush will say his disastrous record isn’t that bad, and Kerry will say Bush can’t deal with reality. There’ll be a question about jobs, Bush will make a bunch of excuses, and Kerry will say Bush has an excuse for everything but can’t own up to his responsibilities. And so on.
* Silliest pre-debate spin you’ll likely hear on the news networks: John Kerry’s experience as a courtroom prosecutor gives him an edge in a townhall debate. That’s a nice try, but Kerry has been in a courtroom in decades.
* Like his convention speech, Bush will probably make his pitch for a second term as if he hasn’t been president the last four years. Bush will hope empty promises on domestic issues will obscure four years of failure.
* Right-wing talking heads will sing Bush’s praises after the debate, even if he drools all over himself for 90 minutes and falls out of his chair while talking to an imaginary friend. Scarborough, Kristol, Kondracke, Barnes, et al, appear to have received a stern lecture about the GOP’s 11th Commandment after the Miami debate. They won’t repeat the mistake.
* Final prediction: the winner won’t be as painfully obvious as last week. Kerry will be significantly better than Bush once again, but most pundits will say, “Well, Bush was a lot better tonight than he was in Miami.” Final prediction II: tonight won’t have the kind of impact in the polls, for either candidate, as last week did.