As important as Iowa and New Hampshire are in the nominating process, next Tuesday’s seven contests — Arizona, Delaware, Missouri, New Mexico, North Dakota, Oklahoma, and South Carolina — will have an even bigger impact on picking the Dem nominee.
Iowa and New Hampshire offered candidates a total of 67 potential delegates. Feb. 3 primaries, meanwhile, offer a combined 269 delegates.
The shift to these seven primaries will also offer a sharp contrast in campaign styles. Candidates campaign in Iowa and New Hampshire with traditional “retail” politicking, literally meeting voters in small groups, knocking on doors, meeting people in diners and supermarkets.
With seven states hosting primaries across the country at the same time, it’s an entirely different approach to campaigning, based on the candidates’ broader appeal and with a much stronger emphasis on media advertising.
Best of all, the Feb. 3 primaries will expand the Democratic audience. Iowa and New Hampshire are relatively small states with minuscule minority populations. States like Arizona, New Mexico, and South Carolina, meanwhile, have significant minority populations and may push the candidates to change their message accordingly.
Oddly enough, these primaries may be three-person races between Kerry, Clark, and Edwards. Dean has decided not to broadcast any advertising in any of the seven states with Feb. 3 primaries, choosing instead to focus attention on Michigan and Washington state, which host elections on Feb. 7, and Wisconsin, which hosts its primary on Feb. 17.
This is obviously a huge risk. If Dean does poorly on Tuesday, effectively going 0-for-9 in the first nine contests, his campaign will appear to be adrift. Indeed, Dean’s support in Michigan, Washington, and Wisconsin may even fade if people perceive his campaign to be a lost cause. On the other hand, if Dean can score successful victories in these three, the media will likely report it as Dean’s “triumphant comeback,” while the other campaigns insist it’s too little too late.
But first things first. The seven Feb. 3 primaries will offer some terrific contests and answer some important questions.
The story will focus around Kerry. With big wins in Iowa and New Hampshire, he’s the frontrunner. Just as Kerry got a boost after winning in Iowa, which led him to victory in New Hampshire, his campaign is hoping to parlay his status as the presumptive nominee to big wins next Tuesday. The Kerry strategy appears to be relatively simple: success begets success. Voters like backing a winner, and if Kerry is surging ahead, people will gravitate to him.
For Kerry’s sake, that had better work next week, because most of the folks in these seven states haven’t seen him in person for a very long time. As ABC News’ The Note reported yesterday, Kerry hasn’t been in South Carolina since his announcement speech almost five months ago. He hasn’t been in Arizona since November and New Mexico since December. Kerry hasn’t campaigned in the other Feb. 3 states at all. To be sure, Kerry will be hitting nearly all of these states pretty hard between now and next Tuesday, particularly Missouri, but in most instances, he’ll be introducing himself, not following up on previously laid groundwork.
The other big story is Clark’s opportunity to break through. He skipped Iowa and finished a respectable third in New Hampshire. The Clark campaign is now looking at Feb. 3 and saying they’re kicking off their “primary campaign.” It’s kind of clever; Clark is effectively characterizing Iowa and New Hampshire as warm acts for the real show.
It makes sense for Clark to approach Feb. 3 this way. Unless Kerry’s post-New Hampshire surge is bigger than expected, Clark is poised for at least some success next Tuesday, including potential wins in Arizona, New Mexico, and South Carolina, and a very likely victory in Oklahoma. If Clark succeeds in winning three of the seven primaries on Tuesday, the campaign can realistically start touting Clark as a “comeback” candidate.
Edwards, meanwhile, will be pushing a very similar strategy, which mainly focuses around South Carolina. He sees SC as his “must win,” not only because he was born in the state and lives in neighboring North Carolina, but also to prove his mettle as a candidate who can win in the South.
Also note, while Kerry and Dean placed most of their eggs in the Iowa/NH basket, Clark and Edwards have been campaigning in Feb. 3 states for a while now, with Clark having run ads in Arizona, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and South Carolina for nearly a month. Will that give them a leg up? We’ll see.
Which reminds me, South Carolina is being touted as the most important Feb. 3 state. It’s not and I’m not sure why it gets so much attention. (East coast bias?) Missouri and Arizona offer more delegates, Oklahoma has a similar ideological background, and New Mexico is just as diverse. SC is big, but it’s not necessarily the most important state on next Tuesday’s slate.
So, how do things look in the Feb. 3 states right now? One, that depends on who you ask. Two, early data does not yet reflect a post-NH bump for Kerry.
Nevertheless, using some data from Kos, Real Clear Politics, and elsewhere, here are some of the latest numbers available:
Arizona (55 delegates)
Arizona State University/ KAET — 1/24-25 (MoE +/- 4.6%)
Clark — 22%
Kerry — 21%
Dean — 14%
Edwards — 7%
American Research Group — 1/23-25 (MoE +/- 4%)
Kerry — 24% (6%)
Clark — 21% (15%)
Edwards — 15% (1%)
Dean — 10% (26%)
Missouri (74 delegates)
Kansas City Star/KMBC — 1/20-25
Kerry — 25%
Edwards — 9%
Dean — 6%
Clark — 3%
Gephardt — 3% (they don’t realize he dropped out)
Lieberman — 2%
Oklahoma (40 delegates)
American Research Group — 1/23-25 (MoE +/- 4%)
Clark — 23% (21%)
Edwards — 18% (3%)
Kerry — 17% (2%)
Dean — 8% (24%)
Delaware (15 delegates)
Survey USA — 1/12-14 (MoE +/- 5%)
Dean — 27%
Clark — 18%
Lieberman — 10%
Kerry — 7%
Edwards — 6%
South Carolina (45 delegates)
American Research Group — 1/23-24 (MoE +/- 4%)
Edwards — 21% (11%)
Kerry — 17% (2%)
Sharpton — 15% (12%)
Clark — 14% (12%)
Dean — 9% (16%)
New Mexico (26 delegates)
Albuquerque Journal — 1/12-15
Dean — 18%
Clark — 16%
Kerry — 8%
Lieberman — 8%
Edwards — 4%
North Dakota (14 delegates)
No one appears to have done a poll in North Dakota yet, but one will apparently be released tomorrow.