The ‘shift in the political winds’ isn’t blowing the GOP’s way

July 14, 2006

The Hill had a front-page item this week reporting that House Republicans are growing “more optimistic” about 2006. The GOP is willing to concede that the party had a tough time a few months ago, but their “newfound optimism is grounded in what Republicans say is a shift in the political winds.”

As far as the polls go, the winds may be shifting, but not in the GOP’s direction.

[tag]Republicans[/tag] are in jeopardy of losing their grip on [tag]Congress[/tag] in November. With less than four months to the midterm elections, the latest Associated Press-Ipsos [tag]poll[/tag] found that Americans by an almost 3-to-1 margin hold the GOP-controlled Congress in low regard and profess a desire to see [tag]Democrats[/tag] wrest control after a dozen years of Republican rule.

Further complicating the GOP outlook to turn things around is a solid percentage of liberals, moderates and even conservatives who say they’ll vote Democratic. The party out of power also holds the edge among persuadable voters, a prospect that doesn’t bode well for the Republicans.

The AP-Ipsos poll, conducted Monday through Wednesday, pegged [tag]Bush[/tag]’s [tag]approval rating[/tag] at 36%. On a generic congressional ballot, Dems now lead the [tag]GOP[/tag], 51% to 40%. Among “persuadable voters” who are undecided, Dems are ahead by an almost identical margin.

Also today, a new Fox News poll shows very similar results. Bush is stuck at 36% support, while Dems lead the generic-ballot question, 42% to 34%.

Americans think the most important issues facing the country today are Iraq (21 percent), the economy (11 percent) and health care (10 percent). On each of these, Democrats are seen as the party that can do a better job — by a razor-thin margin on Iraq (+2 percentage points), and by much more significant margins on the economy (+20 points) and health care (+29 points).

House Speaker Dennis Hastert was boasting on Tuesday that he’s “looking forward to increasing our [tag]majority[/tag] next year.” He probably shouldn’t get his hopes up.

We probably shouldn’t get our hopes up either.

  • It’s a race by race game. The Republican’ts may be polling with a degree of detail not found in your generic question polls.

    Again, their pollsters may also be lying to them 😉

  • House Speaker Dennis Hastert was boasting on Tuesday that he’s “looking forward to increasing [their] majority next year.” He probably shouldn’t get his hopes up.

    We will all find out in November. Hastert is practicing Republican “talking points” politics–saying it is so will make it so (he hopes). Hopefully (for us), we’ll get exhausted counting chickens after November 7th.

  • The cowboy in chief is over his head, yet again, and is exposed by the current Mid East crisis as incapable of world diplomacy. Katrina exposed his managerial ineptitude. Abramoff exposed his lack of ethics. Iraq exposed his military incompetence.
    Bush is inept in so many ways, and all these chickens are flocking home to roost just before November. Events are deteriorating such that Rove is entering a true “no spin zone”.

  • Lance said it: “It’s a race by race game.” And there’s still a lot of time left for something to happen — for example, rockets and bombers might start flying over the Middle East. In that case, these numbers from the AP poll could make a difference:

    One bright spot for the GOP is that Republicans hold an advantage over Democrats on issues such as foreign policy and fighting terrorism — 43 percent to 33 percent — and a smaller edge on handling Iraq — 36 percent to 32 percent.

  • A lot can happen in three and a half months. Expect a military strike on Iran or Syria, either by the U.S. or Israel with tacit approval from the U.S., in the next couple of weeks. The situation is well out of the Bush Administration’s control but that doesn’t mean they won’t exploit it for cheap political gain.

  • Again, their pollsters may also be lying to them – Lance (#3)

    Hastert is practicing Republican “talking points” politics–saying it is so will make it so – sknm (#4)

    Or maybe they’re just laughing up their sleeves because they know they’ve got the Die_Bold all nicely hacked and set. ??

  • Tradesports.com shows the odds of the GOP keeping the house is now about 55%. About 6 to 9 weeks ago, the odds were about 45%.

    This is REAL money and significantly more accurate than most pundits or polls.

    The odds are about 82% of the GOP keeping the Senate.

  • I agree with prm. These people are good at exploiting our fear, as we have already found out so many times in the past. The voting machine issue is also disconcerting -I heard someone on the news talking about a 10% margin of error as if that is OK. Very creepy.

  • It’s one thing for Know Nothings (much of the electorate) to express their dislike of a Do-Nothing Congress (which happens to be Republican) in a poll. It’s quite another to translate that vague feeling into the action of unseating an incumbent (especially your own, especially now that the bastards have entrenched themselves so well). “I’ll believe it when I see it “– a truism even before introducing such factors as Diebold and the Bush Crime Family.

  • Count me with those who are not hopeful of dem victory for all the reasons stated. And, may I add, that if the dems don’t win the House or even pick up very many seats, I fear there will be a lot of people on our side who simply give up and abandon politics and voting.

  • AP via NYT:
    “Speaker J. Dennis Hastert, Republican of Illinois, was hospitalized for treatment of a bacterial skin infection on his leg. Mr. Hastert’s spokesman, Ron Bonjean, said the speaker was expected to be receive treatment with intravenous antibiotics at Bethesda Naval Hospital in Maryland through the weekend. The spokesman said Mr. Hastert’s doctor diagnosed the infection as cellulitis, which appears as a swollen, red area that feels hot and tender.”

    That’s what happens when you play footsie with unsavoury characters…

  • ***House Speaker Dennis Hastert was boasting on Tuesday that he’s “looking forward to increasing our majority next year.”***

    Yep—and Goering boasted about the ability of his Luftwaffe to crush all British opposition (to a previous Reich) in the skies over England….

  • Blog on all you want. When it comes time to punch the chad, the American people know that the democrats have not plan beyond “Bush is bad”. Not much of a campaign or a platform.

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