The trouble with Joe

It’s been about a week since [tag]DSCC[/tag] Chairman [tag]Chuck Schumer[/tag] hinted that he’s likely support Sen. [tag]Joe Lieberman[/tag] in Connecticut, even if Lieberman loses a Democratic primary. The sort-of announcement prompted widespread criticism from Dem activists and the netroots, though Schumer didn’t back off (indeed, he didn’t follow up on the comments at all).

So, where’s the party now? According to a report in today’s Roll Call, still confused.

Should Sen. Joe Lieberman (D) opt to run as an [tag]Independent[/tag] for re-election if he is defeated in Connecticut’s August Democratic [tag]primary[/tag] by political upstart [tag]Ned Lamont[/tag], Senate Democratic leaders could find themselves in uncharted political waters in deciding which candidate to back against Republican Alan Schlesinger and whether sanctions would be imposed on Lieberman for leaving the party even temporarily.

“Temporarily.” In other words, it’s not entirely unrealistic to think Lieberman could run in the Dem primary, lose, leave the party and run as an independent, win, and then re-join the Dems as if nothing ever happened. How would the party react to this? No one knows.

It’s a bit of a mess. Lieberman’s team says it’s focused on wining the Aug. 8 primary. The DSCC says Lieberman will probably win the primary. Lieberman’s allies in the Dem leadership all agree that he’ll probably win the primary. But none of them have a clue as to what to do if he loses. In fact, the Roll Call article reports that the party leadership isn’t even planning a strategy — it’s more of a we’ll-jump-off-that-bridge-when-we-get-to-it approach.

But behind the scenes, Dems seem to realize that the party will find it more than a little difficult to turn its back on Ned Lamont if he wins the Dem primary.

A senior Democratic aide told Roll Call:

“If the DSCC and the establishment support a Lieberman Independent bid, it would send a message to state parties that they don’t matter anymore. That would be devastating. Lieberman needs to run in the primary, follow the rules, and work hard for a win. Any other option should be off the table.”

I agree, it should be, but it’s sitting on the table anyway. For one thing, party leaders are afraid of the consequences, and as [tag]Harold Meyerson[/tag] explained today, Lieberman “seems to have forgotten the very purpose of elections.”

Now, maybe I’ve had this backward all my life, but I thought that elections were held to enable voters to choose between candidates espousing different points of view on the most important issues. Lieberman seems to believe that elections exist to enable voters not to choose — indeed, to “accept diversity of opinion.” And that if voters have the temerity to go ahead and choose anyway, they have crossed the line between party and sect in their zeal “to have everybody toe the line.” […]

In talking with Broder, Lieberman also expressed a kind of wry nostalgia for the pre-primary days when political bosses could assemble slates of candidates essentially by themselves. But the last stand of the bosses came in 1968, when machine-appointed delegates to the Democratic National Convention nominated Hubert Humphrey for president even though the voters in those states that had held primaries had favored the anti-Vietnam War candidacies of Robert Kennedy and Eugene McCarthy. Thereafter, delegates in every state were selected in primaries and caucuses, as party leaders concluded that voters would demand — and even deserved — a say on issues as fundamental as Vietnam. To Joe Lieberman’s apparent dismay, [tag]Iraq[/tag] is just such an issue, and the voters of his state are just irresponsible enough to judge him on it.

Stay tuned.

Isn’t the bigger issue, what candidate the most people in the state want to represent them? If Lieberman, whom I don’t like, wins as an independent then the people have spoken. Has anyone ever been denied the option of becoming a Democrat if they wanted to?

  • Joe “Lie-like-a-dog”-erman is playing a rather nasty game here. Threatening to “go Indie” is nothing more than a threat to either “vote for me, or risk a Republikanner victory in November. He won’t win a three-way against Lamont and Schlesinger; he’ll simply split the Dem vote, and let the GOP pick up a solid Dem seat in the Senate. That’s the Senate, by the way—with a six-year term for the seat. Schumer needs to get his head out of his winking posterior, and tell “Joe baby” that if he loses the primary, he’ll get no backing for an indie-bid. The man’s already forsaken the Cause by siding with the infectiously-evil Republikanner beast. I’m surprised that the party mechanisms haven’t already started throwing their weight behind Lamont….

  • This is grade A certified baloney. If the man turns his back on the party, the party should have nothing to do with him. What does he bring to the party anyway? One more warm body in the Senate, thats it. Otherwise he’s a great go to man for the Republicans to show a “bipartisan” spirit. If he wants to caucus with the Democrats, fine, but I don’t think he deserves any of the other benefits of belonging to the party. How the Hell can anything get done by a party who would let this man walk all over it like this?

  • This just shows what kind of autocrat (which is Latin for “Republican”) that Lieberman really is. How about we just expel him from the Democratic party and not let him back in no matter how much he begs us?

  • Dale, the question is whether the DSCC should take the insane step of supporting an independent against a Democrat in the general election, not what to do if Lieberman wins.

    Steve, I don’t think the winner of the three-way is that easy to predict at this stage. It’s unclear how much support Lieberman will lose by leaving the party, but he could possibly pick up support among Republicans, who already like him much more than Democrats do. Lamont could win with Lieberman splitting the Republican vote, or Lieberman could win as an independent if enough people still like him by then. Sure it’s possible that the Republican nonentity could win if the Republican Party decides to greatly increase the resources it devotes to the race (which it probably will), but it’s far from a sure thing.

  • Steve,

    He won’t win a three-way against Lamont and Schlesinger; he’ll simply split the Dem vote, and let the GOP pick up a solid Dem seat in the Senate.

    The latest Rasmussan polls show Lieberman winning a three way race by a fairly large margin.

  • I have to admit, Lieberman was never on my radar until he got picked to run for VP in 2000, at which point, after listening to him for 5 minutes, I said to myself “what were they thinking???????”

    I have to say, watching him ever since, the voters of CT must have suffered Cranial-Rectal Adhesion Syndrome the first time they elected this turd to any political office. Talk about the anti-charisma candidate – whiney, self-righteous, a real Putz-with-a-capital-P . He’s the only politician whose voice drives me nuts faster than listening to that phoney west Texas accent Bush uses.

  • The one thing I love about the Democratic Party is it answers to the people. The Republican Party answers to the Party, not the people. Sort of like the Nazi…

    We need to remind people that this Lieberman/Lamont race is GOOD for CT.

  • Edo:

    The latest Rasmussan polls show Lieberman winning a three way race by a fairly large margin.

    The “latest” Rasmussen poll that I find is in February of 2005 against an “unspecified” Republican.

    The truly latest Rasumussen poll shows him ahead of Lamont by only 6% points (survey date June 12, 2006).

    And Here is the poll of a 3-way race.

    And that number is down from the April poll.

    So – Holy Joe is in some Holy Shit. GOOD. I agree with Ed. Lieberman is the first of many caners that need to be removed from the party.

  • Darin,
    How is letting Lieberman back into the party answering to the people? The Democratic rank and file, not the party leadership, will be the ones to toss out Lieberman. It seems to me to be a very pro-party leadership move to let Lieberman back into the party if he runs as an independent.

  • KCinDC, the question is whether the DSCC should take the insane step of supporting an independent against a Democrat in the general election, not whether Lieberman will win.

    Schumer’s revelation of what the Dem power-brokers are thinking is scarier than holy Joe’s machinations.

  • It seems to me that those of us who have contributed money to the DSCC did so on the basis and belief that the money would be used to support and elect Democratic candidates.

    If Lieberman loses the primary and yet the DSCC uses its funds to support him rather than Lamont as Senator Schumer suggests that would be fraud. I would have no compulsions about filing a civil suit against the DSCC. Under these circumstances, it would probably be easy to convince the Republican to pay the lawyers.

  • DrWolfy,

    first you state:

    The “latest” Rasmussen poll that I find is in February of 2005 against an “unspecified” Republican.

    then you state this with a link:

    The truly latest Rasumussen poll shows him ahead of Lamont by only 6% points (survey date June 12, 2006).

    And Here is the poll of a 3-way race.

    Yet, when I clicked on the link it showed the following, dated 6/19/06:

    When voters consider him as an Independent, though, he collects just 44% support, versus Democrat Ned Lamont’s 29% and Schlesinger’s 15%.

    So, a) it would appear that there is a poll from just 2 days ago that pits Lieberman and a named Republican and Lamont and b) that Lieberman is ahead by 15 points.

    Given (a) and (b) above, it would appear that my statement was accurate. What am I missing?

    For the record, I fully support Lamont and think Schumer suffers from the exact same syndrome that Tom Cleaver thinks may be affecting the voters of CT (see comment # 8 above). I just don’t want even the recent positive movement for Lamont in a 3 way race to engender any complacency on our part; hence my correction of Steve when he asserted that Lamont would win a 3 way race. There currently is no data to support such an assertion; indeed very recent data indicates otherwise.

  • There currently is no data to support

    …currently *are* no data to support…

    (and I even used Preview, d’oh!)

  • I don’t understand the establishment’s intense loyalty toward Joementum, because he’s certainly has not reciprocated. He’s carved an unrealistic position on Iraq, he votes with Republicans when it counts the most, and he’s essentially giving the middle finger to Democratic voters in Connecticut because he’s being challenged in the primary. I’m sure he’s a great guy, but he’s screws the party over every chance he gets.

    And if he does jump ship as an independent, who’s to say he’d return to the Democratic fold if he won the election? Given his current petulance, it’s a fair bet to assume he’ll take up with the Republicans out of spite.

    Schumer, who’s proving to have terrible political instincts this election cycle, needs to say unequivocally the party will back whoever wins the Democratic primary, and leave it at that.

  • Schumer, who’s proving to have terrible political instincts this election cycle, needs to say unequivocally the party will back whoever wins the Democratic primary, and leave it at that.

    word.

  • KCinDC,

    Understood. However, the current polling data doesn’t support this assertion and that’s what I was trying to point out. And that’s what it seemed like DrWolfy was challenging.

  • Here’s the madness behind my thinking.

    If things shift to a three-way, Lieberman has to fight Lamont as “not being qualified” and Schlesinger as “being a part of the GOP culture.” It places Joe on the bad side of a two-front war

    Lamont, on the other hand, has to tackle Lieberman for “being in bed with the GOP,” while hitting Schlesinger as being the bad guy. This puts Lamont in the same pincer as Joe.

    End result—the Dem vote splits into two disparate camps; “stay-the-coursers” for Lieberman, and “time-for-changers” going to Lamont. In the middle will be a fair-sized portion of Dem voters who will get sick of the infighting, and stay home from their polling-stations on Election Day.

    Schlesinger, by the way of all this infighting and bickering between the two Dem camps, only has to play the wishy-washy weakness of the Democratic Party—a fine example being how they can’t even seem to agree on who their candidate is. This could be a strength that pulls in the full force of the GOP in Connecticut. Couple that with a tandem of (1) disgruntled Dems and (2) a portion of Indies who don’t know Lamont and who don’t want another six years of Joe-boy—and “voila!” You’ve got yourselves a freshman Republican Senator from Connecticut.

    If it’s a two-way, there’s going to be a fair amount of bitterness between the two Dem camps. Lamonters will point to the threat from Joe to leave the party; Liebermanites will badmouth the renegades who, by rebelling against their beloved Senator, wouldn’t tow the conventional party line. Either has the potential to drive Dem votes out of the ballot box next November. This, also, will serve Schlesinger well.

    There is a precedent for this scenario. 1968—Dems split early on between Kennedy and Humphrey; even after Bob’s assassination, they didn’t completely recover. That bitterness, even if only in part, helped put Tricky Dick in the Oval Office.

  • You may be right, Steve. Certainly the moment Lieberman actually launches an independent run those polls will be changing drastically. I’m just not sure what the changes will be. I think you may be underestimating the number of less-than-hard-core Republicans who like Lieberman and would vote for him as an independent (hell, they vote for him as a Democrat, don’t they?). Incumbency is still a big advantage.

    Then again, you could say that Schlesinger and Lieberman will split the “stay the course” vote, leaving Lamont to win with the votes of the majority who have turned against the war.

  • KC, I don’t think incumbency will carry the day for Lieberman; he’ll be getting thwacked from both sides in a three-way. And in a three-way, there will be no clear majority—it’ll be a plurality win, which means the winner goes in as a certified “minority-vote” member of the Senate (being the winner isn’t all that much of a big deal, when the votes you didn’t get outnumber the votes you did get). Connecticut’s majority for this particular seat shows “majority” in the voting arena, but if that majority is split, then what would have been the minority—in this case, Schlesinger—becomes the plurality…and thus, the victor….

    “Chuckles” Schumer needs to stop smoking that opium-laced cornsilk—and get downright medieval on Lieberman—either win the primary, or stand down.

  • Isn’t it likely that with Lieberman’s numbers falling in a three way race and the alienation of Democrats that would happen if Joe bolted that Lieberman might have to cast his lot with the Republicans to actually win, because this would be the only base that he hadn’t offended yet.

    Connecticut is Democratic enough that one cannot win simply by going after the Independent vote because the Dems are the biggest in that state. Facing a Demcratic challenger who had wrapped up a majority of primary voters, Lieberman would have to rely on Republican votes to win.

    I can see Lieberman voting for Frist. Schumer can offer whatever he wants, but Schumer can’t give Lieberman votes. Votes for Lieberman have to come from somewhere and the only place where his support isn’t shrinking is among Republicans who have an incredibly weak candidate in the race.

    I hope the Dems don’t get played by Lieberman on this, but I’m so afraid that’s exactly what will happen.

    Say it ain’t so!

  • Connecticut is Democratic enough that one cannot win simply by going after the Independent vote because the Dems are the biggest in that state.

    David, in 1990 Lowell Weicker ran for governor as an independent (well, he had a party called “A Connecticut Party”) against a Republican and a Democrat and won with 40% of the vote. That was two years after he lost his Senate seat to Lieberman.

  • Why “uncharted political waters”? Hasn’t a Democratic nominee ever lost a primary, in the history of the world?

    Unless he’s a Nazi, a convicted felon etc., the party supports the party’s nominee.

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